5:24 Leopardstown
This apprentice handicap over 7f50y at Leopardstown brings together a field of 15 modest performers in a race where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top end, with no horse exceeding 55. The KTB numbers point to a contest low on depth and littered with question marks over both trip and ground, as the majority remain unproven on the surface. With the pace shape rated unclear due to insufficient run-style evidence, the race looks open on paper yet difficult to read with confidence.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style data across the field to form a reliable picture of how the race will unfold. A couple of runners are noted as usually held up and producing their effort late, but with limited evidence this does not provide a firm anchor. The key question is whether any horse can seize an uncontested position early or if the race will fragment into a scramble for the places from off the pace in a field short on proven front-runners.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ardeur KTB Selection55/100Ardeur is a modest performer who has shown little since finishing ninth on handicap debut last year and was well held in both starts this season.
- 2God Knows53/100Modest performer who has been well below form on his last three starts.
- 3Bear Right53/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with a third and a close third in his last two starts.
- 4Faoladh52/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip and once at Leopardstown from seven visits.
- 5Frosted Sky52/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing no better than sixth.
- 6Notforalongtime49/100Limited horse who has been on the go for a long time and rarely troubles the judge these days.
- 7Dynamic Force49/100Limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and showed only modest form on his latest starts.
- 8Comfort Line45/100Modest performer with a solid Leopardstown record of two placings from seven runs but no win.
- 9Cordouan43/100Limited performer who has placed twice from five runs at Leopardstown without winning.
- 10Ardadslosttheplot42/100Modest performer who has shown bits of ability, finishing third on return over 5f at this track last month.
- 11Rodeeve39/100Modest performer who has shown bits and pieces without winning in 15 starts.
- 12Dawn Flame39/100Limited performer who has shown little in 11 starts and finished a remote 15th on his only visit to this track.
- 13Mehmar37/100Mehmar is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 14Prime Sign37/100Prime Sign has shown very little in ten runs and carries the limited label with form figures of 05-009.
- 15Smaoineamh Sile35/100Smaoineamh Sile is a limited horse who has won four times from 14 starts at Leopardstown yet arrives on the back of a string of poor efforts including being uns…
The contenders
Ardeur KTB Fit 55/100
Ardeur is a modest performer who has shown little since finishing ninth on handicap debut last year and was well held in both starts this season. He has a poor record at this trip and was well beaten on his only previous run here. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate from 546 runs at Leopardstown. Patrick J Flynn and Robyn Donaghue-Leahy combine with a 16/156 record that reads 10% with an A/E of 1.07. The four-year-old remains unproven on the ground having had no previous runs on it and is drawn in stall six.
God Knows KTB Fit 53/100
God Knows is a modest performer who has been well below form on his last three starts. He has run just once at Leopardstown and finished thirteenth, while the trainer's modest record here adds little encouragement. He drops back from a mile to a trip at which he has placed once but never won, and he remains unproven on this ground. P Sweeney and Patrick McGettigan have a 4/34 record together that stands at 12% with an A/E of 1.16. The seven-year-old is drawn in stall 14 and has shown no win or place from that sole course visit.
Bear Right KTB Fit 53/100
Bear Right is a modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with a third and a close third in his last two starts. He has placed once from one run at Leopardstown and is proven at this trip though without winning. First-time headgear is now tried on ground he has never encountered. Mrs John Harrington and Keithen Kennedy combine with an 18/193 record that reads 9% with an A/E of 0.89. The three-year-old is drawn in stall two and has the benefit of a placed effort from his only previous visit to the track.
Faoladh KTB Fit 52/100
Faoladh is a modest performer who has won once over this trip and once at Leopardstown from seven visits. Recent form is mixed with a win and a sixth on his last two starts while first-time headgear is now tried. Trainer's 7% strike rate from 199 runs at the track offers little encouragement and the horse remains unproven on this ground. Andrew Slattery and Sam Coen have a 10/79 record that stands at 13% with an A/E of 0.97. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the four-year-old is drawn in stall 13.
Frosted Sky KTB Fit 52/100
Frosted Sky is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing no better than sixth. He steps up markedly in trip from 5f today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has a 6% strike rate at Leopardstown from 16 runs. Daniel McLoughlin and Conor Cusack combine with a 0/7 record. The three-year-old has no course form on record, remains unproven on the ground and is drawn in stall 12.
The rest of the field
NotforalongtimeKTB Fit 49/100
Notforalongtime is a limited horse who has been on the go for a long time and rarely troubles the judge these days. Four runs at this track have produced no better than ninth and he now drops back from a mile to a trip he has won at before. First-time headgear is tried while the trainer holds a modest 8% strike-rate here.
Dynamic ForceKTB Fit 49/100
Dynamic Force is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and showed only modest form on his latest starts. He has tried this trip before without winning and now drops back from a mile, while the first-time headgear is another unknown. Trainer's modest record at the track adds little confidence from stall 11.
Comfort LineKTB Fit 45/100
Comfort Line is a modest performer with a solid Leopardstown record of two placings from seven runs but no win. He drops back to a trip he has won at twice from 14 attempts though the first-time headgear is an unknown and he has never raced on this ground. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track from a large sample is another negative.
CordouanKTB Fit 43/100
Cordouan is a limited performer who has placed twice from five runs at Leopardstown without winning. He has won twice at this trip from ten attempts but is unproven on the current ground. Trainer strikes at 7% from 15 runs here while the jockey has limited track experience.
ArdadslosttheplotKTB Fit 42/100
Ardadslosttheplot is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability, finishing third on return over 5f at this track last month. He steps up in trip today having been placed once in two starts at this distance without winning. Trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 379 runs here while the 7lb claimer is making her first appearance at the track.
RodeeveKTB Fit 39/100
Rodeeve is a modest performer who has shown bits and pieces without winning in 15 starts. Placed once at this trip from six attempts but arrives on the back of a modest recent form line and now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer has only three runs at Leopardstown so far while the horse remains unproven on this ground.
Dawn FlameKTB Fit 39/100
Dawn Flame is a limited performer who has shown little in 11 starts and finished a remote 15th on his only visit to this track. He steps up in trip for the first time today having looked all at sea over shorter on his latest starts, while the ground is another unknown. First-time headgear is reached for but the yard's modest 6% strike rate here offers little encouragement.
MehmarKTB Fit 37/100
Mehmar is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He steps up markedly in trip from 5f to 7f for the first time in a while having been placed once at the distance without winning, while first-time headgear is now tried. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 13 runs at Leopardstown and this is the horse's first run at the track.
Prime SignKTB Fit 37/100
Prime Sign has shown very little in ten runs and carries the limited label with form figures of 05-009. The yard posts a 5% strike rate from 340 runs at Leopardstown while this is the horse's first run here and it steps up in trip having failed to trouble the judge in three prior attempts at this distance. First-time headgear is now applied on ground it has never tried.
Smaoineamh SileKTB Fit 35/100
Smaoineamh Sile is a limited horse who has won four times from 14 starts at Leopardstown yet arrives on the back of a string of poor efforts including being unseated last time. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from eight runs at the track while the eight-year-old drops back in trip to 7¼f having failed to place in six previous attempts at the distance. First-time headgear is now applied on ground on which she remains unproven.
KTB verdict
Ardeur is the KTB Selection in a race where the overall standard is modest and several runners bring strings of poor efforts or significant unknowns. The selection has a modest profile yet holds his place at the head of the KTB Fit ratings and represents a yard that, while operating at a low strike rate here, has shown the ability to place runners at the track. His main dangers are likely to come from Bear Right, who has shown recent consistency including a placing on his only run here, and Faoladh, who boasts a win at the course and distance. The race could be decided by which of these can best handle the unknown ground and make use of their respective draw and run styles in a contest short on established pace clues.
KTB Selection Ardeur
This is the narrative read of the 5:24 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent placing at Leopardstown among the principals?
Bear Right has placed once from one run at Leopardstown, finishing third.
How many course wins does Smaoineamh Sile have at Leopardstown?
Smaoineamh Sile has won four times from 14 starts at Leopardstown.
Which runners are trying first-time headgear in this race?
Bear Right, Faoladh, Notforalongtime, Dynamic Force, Comfort Line, Rodeeve, Dawn Flame, Mehmar, Prime Sign and Smaoineamh Sile are all trying first-time headgear.
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip from 5f?
Frosted Sky steps up markedly in trip from 5f, while Mehmar also steps up markedly in trip from 5f.
What is the trainer strike rate at Leopardstown for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Patrick J Flynn operates at a 7% strike rate at Leopardstown from 546 runs.
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