5:25 Tramore
This 1m4f maiden at Tramore on good ground brings together a field of ten with limited previous experience between them. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched in the low-to-mid forties for most runners, underlining the open nature of the contest and the amount of guesswork required. Davy Crockett heads the KTB rankings on the back of prior placed form and the powerful Mullins factor at this venue.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader scenario with high confidence. Solness is the one horse whose run-style is to make the running or race prominently and he can be expected to bowl along in front with little to challenge him for the lead. That uncontested advantage may prove difficult for the many held-up types to overcome late on, posing the key question of whether any closer can bridge the likely gap in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Davy Crockett KTB Selection54/100Davy Crockett has shown ability on good ground with a win and a placing from just two runs, though his eight career starts leave him with scope to improve furth…
- 2Onlytheriverknows45/100Onlytheriverknows is a debutant with no racecourse experience.
- 3Nothingbutadream44/100Nothingbutadream has shown little in two starts to date and now tries headgear for the first time while dropping back in trip.
- 4Aiteall44/100Aiteall has just the one run behind him so there is very little to go on.
- 5Solness43/100Solness arrives off the back of a modest fourth last time and now drops back from 2m to 1m4f, a trip he has tried once without success.
- 6Glittering Gem43/100Modest performer who has shown some encouragement on his last two starts, finishing third on both occasions.
- 7Shirzan43/100Shirzan has only four career runs and remains lightly raced with scope to improve.
- 8Kaleo Ametsa40/100Kaleo Ametsa arrives off a modest fifth on its most recent start and now drops back from 2m1f to an untried 1m4f trip.
- 9Metallic39/100Metallic is a first-time runner from a yard that has a modest 9% strike rate at Tramore.
- 10Keep It Together38/100Keeps finding himself out of the frame and has shown very little spark in three starts this year.
The contenders
Davy Crockett KTB Fit 54/100
Davy Crockett has shown ability on good ground with a win and a placing from just two runs, though his eight career starts leave him with scope to improve further. He drops back from 2m1f to an untried 1m4f today while sporting first-time headgear, both of which pose fresh questions. Mullins has a strong 30% strike rate at Tramore from a big sample, while King records a solid 11% from his 56 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the leader to come back to him if the uncontested pace shape materialises. The 5yo is the KTB Selection and the one who makes most appeal on what is known.
Onlytheriverknows KTB Fit 45/100
Onlytheriverknows is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The yard has failed to land a winner from eight attempts at Tramore while the jockey holds a solid 14% strike rate from 285 rides here. By Sioux Nation out of a dam with a 13% overall win rate from 2795 runners, pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment given the complete lack of form. There is nothing in the data to suggest he can make an impact on his first start.
Nothingbutadream KTB Fit 44/100
Nothingbutadream has shown little in two starts to date and now tries headgear for the first time while dropping back in trip. The yard's record here is too small a sample to judge while the 3lb claimer has a 10% strike rate from 31 rides at Tramore. Usually held up and producing his effort late on limited evidence, he is unproven on good ground. Data confidence is low and this looks a difficult starting point.
Aiteall KTB Fit 44/100
Aiteall has just the one run behind him so there is very little to go on. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer's modest record at Tramore adds no confidence. Usually held up on the limited evidence available, he remains very much an unknown quantity at this trip and venue.
Solness KTB Fit 43/100
Solness arrives off the back of a modest fourth last time and now drops back from 2m to 1m4f, a trip he has tried once without success. He makes his first appearance at Tramore and tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has a 9% strike rate here from 80 runs while the jockey is operating at 6% from 191 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is the one who can take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape and set an uncontested gallop that may be hard to peg back.
The rest of the field
Glittering GemKTB Fit 43/100
Modest performer who has shown some encouragement on his last two starts, finishing third on both occasions. Trainer Dermot Weld has a solid 16% strike rate here from 147 runs, though apprentice Sam Coen is still seeking his first Tramore winner from five rides. Steps up in trip today as a lightly-raced four-year-old, with too few runs to judge his effectiveness on this ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
ShirzanKTB Fit 43/100
Shirzan has only four career runs and remains lightly raced with scope to improve. Dropping back from 2m1½f to an untried 1m4f poses a fresh question at this trip. The trainer holds a 7% strike rate from 72 runs at Tramore while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
Kaleo AmetsaKTB Fit 40/100
Kaleo Ametsa arrives off a modest fifth on its most recent start and now drops back from 2m1f to an untried 1m4f trip. It has shown some competitiveness on good ground with a placed effort from three runs but remains a largely unexposed 6yo with only nine career starts. The trainer holds a 0% strike rate from seven runs at Tramore while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge, and first-time headgear is now applied. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
MetallicKTB Fit 39/100
Metallic is a first-time runner from a yard that has a modest 9% strike rate at Tramore. The 3yo is by Australia out of a half-sister to high-class middle-distance performer Magic Wand, with a sales background that saw him make 72,000 euros as a yearling. Jockey Julian Pietropaolo has had too few rides at the track to form any reliable view, so this debut effort is best viewed as an unknown on pedigree and stable.
Keep It TogetherKTB Fit 38/100
Keep It Together keeps finding himself out of the frame and has shown very little spark in three starts this year. Steps up markedly in trip having failed to make the frame in two previous tries at 1m4f, while his record on good ground is also blank. The yard has yet to strike at Tramore from eight runners and the horse himself could only manage seventh when he tried the course before. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
KTB verdict
Davy Crockett is the KTB Selection. He has already shown ability on good ground and the powerful Mullins 30% strike rate at Tramore from a large sample gives him a clear edge over most of these. The drop in trip, first-time headgear and held-up run-style all introduce unknowns, yet he still makes most appeal on the balance of what is known. The main danger is likely to be Solness if the uncontested lead materialises as the pace shape suggests, while Glittering Gem is the obvious each-way threat on his placed efforts.
KTB Selection Davy Crockett
This is the narrative read of the 5:25 Tramore. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Tramore racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to set the pace?
Solness, whose run-style is to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, is expected to take the lone-leader role in a shape that suggests an uncontested lead.
How many of the field are wearing headgear for the first time?
Four horses are wearing first-time headgear: Davy Crockett, Nothingbutadream, Solness and Kaleo Ametsa.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Tramore in this race?
W P Mullins has a 30% strike rate at Tramore from 688 runs.
How many runners are completely unexposed having never raced before?
Two runners are debutants: Onlytheriverknows and Metallic.
What is the course record of the KTB Selection at Tramore?
Davy Crockett has no course form on record.
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