5:28 Carlisle
This Class 6 handicap over 6f195y at Carlisle on soft ground brings together a field of ten modest performers where the KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but unspectacular affair. Albeyours heads the KTB rankings on 64 with Rwenearlytheredad close behind on 62, while the remainder cluster between 57 and 34, underlining a race lacking real depth. With no obvious front-runner the pace is expected to be muddling and tactical, placing emphasis on those who can position effectively from their draws.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with medium confidence, as there is no clear leader and several runners tend to race prominently or in midfield. Those who can settle close to the pace from low draws may hold an advantage in a race that is unlikely to be strongly run. The key question is which of the hold-up performers can time their late efforts effectively once the tempo lifts inside the final two furlongs, particularly on this soft surface that may reward horses with a bit of toe.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Albeyours KTB Selection64/100RPR 75 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Rwenearlytheredad62/100RPR 77 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Ideal Guest57/100RPR 73 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Sir David56/100RPR 73 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Jkr Cobbler55/100RPR 76 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Orbital Chime41/100RPR 73 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 7Pallas Lord40/100RPR 71 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 8Dolly's Delight35/100RPR 69 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 9Baby Rover35/100RPR 70 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 10Tarlac34/100RPR 71 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Albeyours KTB Fit 64/100
Albeyours is a fair handicapper who ran creditably when third on his return at this track last month and has won over today's trip. He has a solid record on soft ground but only one previous try here produced a modest fifth. The yard and jockey both have useful records at Carlisle, with the trainer showing a 22% strike rate and an A/E of 2.77 from 27 runs while Clifford Lee boasts a 20% strike rate and A/E of 1.1 from 105 rides at the venue. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and should be suited by the muddling pace. His figures of RPR 75 and recent form of 5125-3 mark him out as the one to beat in a race of this level.
Rwenearlytheredad KTB Fit 62/100
Rwenearlytheredad has won over course and distance and brings solid recent form figures for a race of this level. The yard's 11% strike rate at Carlisle is respectable while the horse acts on soft ground with two wins from five starts. Draw in stall two could prove handy but the jockey's modest 8% record here from 26 rides is a slight negative. Dropping in class from a mark of RPR 77, his recent efforts of 7868-6 suggest he remains competitive at this level. Typically settling in midfield, he should find a good position in a tactical affair and his course-and-distance success adds to his claims.
Ideal Guest KTB Fit 57/100
Ideal Guest is a modest performer who has run well enough on his last two starts and holds a solid chance at this level. He acts on soft ground with a win and two places from just three tries and has won five times at today's trip. The trainer holds a strong 29% strike-rate at Carlisle from 21 runs but the horse himself was well held on his only previous visit here, finishing 11th. With figures of RPR 73 and recent form reading 2350-3, he arrives in reasonable order. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be hoping the muddling pace sets up for a late run on this soft surface.
Sir David KTB Fit 56/100
Sir David is a modest performer who won over this trip here last year and has solid recent course form. Trainer Nigel Tinkler has a fair record at Carlisle with a 12% strike rate and A/E of 0.97 from 273 runs while jockey Faye McManoman rides the track well with a 17% strike rate and A/E of 1.31 from 69 rides. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, he will look to come from off the pace in a tactical race. However he has never placed on soft ground from three attempts and his recent efforts of 9-0008 have been poor, leaving him with plenty to prove on the surface despite an RPR of 73.
Jkr Cobbler KTB Fit 55/100
Jkr Cobbler is a fair handicapper who has won at this trip and on soft ground. He has also won here at Carlisle though both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track, with Iain Jardine on 8% and an A/E of 0.75 from 342 runs while Andrew Mullen is on 7% and an A/E of 0.81 from 332 rides. Dropping in class from an RPR of 76, his recent form of -54457 is ordinary and he will need to improve on his last two efforts to figure. Usually held up with high confidence, he should be suited by the muddling pace but needs to bounce back to his best.
The rest of the field
Orbital ChimeKTB Fit 41/100
Orbital Chime is a modest performer who has been competitive on soft ground without winning and has placed twice at today's trip. Has run only once here and finished ninth, while the yard's modest strike rate at Carlisle offers little encouragement. Recent form has been patchy and he needs to improve on his latest efforts.
Pallas LordKTB Fit 40/100
Pallas Lord is a modest performer who has won four times over today's trip but has been largely out of form this year and ran no better than sixth on his last four starts. Only one run on soft ground and just a single visit to Carlisle both produced poor results. Trainer and jockey have modest records at the track.
Dolly's DelightKTB Fit 35/100
Dolly's Delight is a modest performer who has shown little spark in three runs this year and was only sixth of eight when last seen here on soft ground. Has placed once at today's trip but that was some time ago and the yard's poor record at Carlisle offers no encouragement. Jockey has a modest strike rate here from a big sample of rides.
Baby RoverKTB Fit 35/100
Baby Rover is a modest performer who has been placed on this track but remains winless after 18 starts. Recent form has been poor and the yard's record here is modest too. Steps up in trip for the first time today on ground that has not suited him in the past.
TarlacKTB Fit 34/100
Tarlac is a modest performer who has been on the go for a long time without winning. He has shown little on soft ground or at Carlisle where both trainer and jockey have poor records. Stepping back up to this trip poses a fresh question and his recent form offers no encouragement.
KTB verdict
Albeyours looks the most solid proposition in a race where the KTB numbers suggest a fairly even contest among modest handicappers. A fair performer who ran creditably when third here last month, he has a win over the trip to his name, a solid record on soft ground and the benefit of a yard and jockey who both go well at Carlisle. The muddling pace should suit his usual hold-up style as he produces his effort late. Rwenearlytheredad, with his course-and-distance success and favourable low draw, is the most obvious danger while Ideal Guest and Jkr Cobbler cannot be entirely dismissed if the race falls their way.
KTB Selection Albeyours
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 09:23 UTC, 8 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Albeyours | 3/1 | Sporting Index |
| Rwenearlytheredad | 4/1 | Bet Victor |
| Ideal Guest | 17/2 | Coral |
| Sir David | 12/1 | Bet Victor |
| Jkr Cobbler | 4/1 | Bet Victor |
| Orbital Chime | 22/1 | 10Bet |
| Pallas Lord | 14/1 | 10Bet |
| Dolly's Delight | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Baby Rover | 22/1 | 10Bet |
| Tarlac | 22/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 5:28 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course form at Carlisle?
Albeyours ran creditably when third on his return at this track last month while Sir David won over this trip here last year.
How does the soft ground affect the main contenders?
Albeyours has a solid record on soft ground, Rwenearlytheredad has two wins from five starts on soft, Ideal Guest has a win and two places from three tries on soft, but Sir David has never placed on soft from three runs.
Who stands out on trainer course statistics at Carlisle?
Harriet Bethell has a 29% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 1.83 from 21 runs, while Steph Hollinshead has a 22% strike rate and A/E of 2.77 from 27 runs.
Which runners are likely to be held up in the race?
Albeyours, Ideal Guest, Sir David, Jkr Cobbler, Baby Rover and Tarlac are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
What is the course record for the top two in the KTB Fit ratings?
Albeyours has run once here for a fifth while Rwenearlytheredad has won here from one visit.
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