5:28 Cork
The 5:28 at Cork is a 0-65 handicap over the minimum trip of five furlongs on good ground, featuring a field of twelve three-year-olds. With the pace shape indicating a lone leader likely to get an uncontested lead, the race poses a stiff test for those who race from off the pace. KTB's Fit ratings point to a modest bunch overall, headed by The Right One on 63, with a cluster of runners in the low-to-mid 50s and the remainder looking more limited.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will get an easy time on the front end with little to challenge it early. The Right One is the most likely to fill that role from its favourable draw in stall 3, while Kiss Don't Tell can race prominently just behind. Most of the remainder, including Gonna Be Golden, Amerilis, Cashel Blue and the majority of the field, are held-up types who will be asked to come from off the pace. The key question is whether anything will be able to close the gap on an uncontested leader over this sharp trip on good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1The Right One KTB Selection63/100Modest performer who has shown consistency at this track with three placed efforts from as many runs.
- 2Gonna Be Golden55/100Modest performer who has failed to place in six starts this year and looks limited on the balance of his form.
- 3Amerilis53/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency at this trip, finishing placed on her only attempt over five furlongs.
- 4Cashel Blue53/100Modest performer who has shown bits of promise on his better days.
- 5Kiss Don't Tell51/100Modest performer who showed some ability when placed over this trip on her final start last season.
- 6Smart Sioux47/100Limited performer who has shown very little in eight starts and arrives here with the first-time headgear on.
- 7Lilbittyprettyone43/100Modest performer who has failed to land a blow in four starts and was well beaten on reappearance last time.
- 8Lady Landhort41/100Limited filly who has shown occasional flashes without winning in eight starts.
- 9Love Bomb37/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and has failed to place in her last seven starts.
- 10Sceitimini36/100Limited performer who has shown little since his debut sixth here last year.
- 11Simmering Seas35/100Limited performer who has shown very little in six starts to date.
- 12Another Nice'day32/100Limited sort who has shown very little in ten starts and was beaten a long way when last seen here over this trip.
The contenders
The Right One KTB Fit 63/100
The Right One is a modest performer who has shown consistency at Cork with three placed efforts from as many runs. He has won over today's trip and is competitive on good ground though remains winless on it from seven attempts. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard's solid course A/E of 1.25 from 117 runs hints at some underlying ability. The trainer has an 11% strike rate with this jockey from 274 runs together and a 9% strike rate at the track from 117 runs. The jockey has a 9% strike rate at Cork from 368 rides. With a front-running style and a kind draw in stall 3 this looks an ideal opportunity for him to make all.
Gonna Be Golden KTB Fit 55/100
Gonna Be Golden is a modest performer who has failed to place in six starts this year and looks limited on the balance of his form. First-time headgear is tried today having shown no spark on good ground or over this trip previously. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Cork from 101 runs while the 5lb claimer is operating at a strong 19% strike rate here from 16 rides. Their combined record is 10% from ten runs together. A held-up run style means he will need the leader to come back to him in a race where the pace shape favours the front. He has no course form on record.
Amerilis KTB Fit 53/100
Amerilis is a modest performer who has shown some consistency at this trip, finishing placed on her only attempt over five furlongs. She has been competitive in recent starts without landing a blow and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Cork from 41 runs which is offset by the jockey's slightly better 9% strike rate here from 97 rides. Their combined record stands at 14% from seven runs. A held-up style is again a negative given the likely uncontested lead up front. She has been placed once from three starts on good ground.
Cashel Blue KTB Fit 53/100
Cashel Blue is a modest performer who has shown bits of promise on his better days. He has won over this trip on good ground, with one win from two starts on the surface, but his two runs here have produced poor results and the wide draw in stall 12 is no help. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Cork from 221 runs and the jockey a strong 15% from 629 rides here. Their combined record is 11% from 591 runs together. A held-up run style from a wide draw makes this a stiff task in a race likely to be run to suit the leader.
Kiss Don't Tell KTB Fit 51/100
Kiss Don't Tell is a modest performer who showed some ability when placed over this trip on her final start last season. She returns from a break with the yard in reasonable form at this track, holding a 9% strike rate from eleven runs, but the jockey has a modest 5% strike rate at Cork from 220 rides. Their combined record is 13% from 72 runs. The trip looks suitable and she remains lightly raced overall with form figures of 052-. A prominent run style from stall 11 could see her track the likely leader. She has had two runs on good ground without placing.
The rest of the field
Smart SiouxKTB Fit 47/100
Smart Sioux is a limited performer who has shown very little in eight starts and arrives here with first-time headgear on. She drops back to 5f having been out of her depth over 1m last time, though she has already tried this trip three times without any success. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Cork from 21 runs while the jockey is operating below par with a 5% strike rate from 338 rides here.
LilbittyprettyoneKTB Fit 43/100
Lilbittyprettyone is a modest performer who has failed to land a blow in four starts and was well beaten on reappearance last time. She drops back to 5f today having been tried over a mile on her latest run, though she has already been placed at this trip without winning. The trainer has a 7% strike rate from 244 runs at Cork while the claiming jockey has only one ride here so far.
Lady LandhortKTB Fit 41/100
Lady Landhort is a limited filly who has shown occasional flashes without winning in eight starts. She has placed at this trip but has failed to place in four runs on good ground and makes her first visit to Cork. The trainer holds a 9% strike-rate here from 11 runs while the jockey is operating at 6% from 154 rides.
Love BombKTB Fit 37/100
Love Bomb is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and has failed to place in her last seven starts. She has shown some ability at this track with two fourths from four runs but is 0-5 on good ground and drops back to 5f for the first time in a while. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Cork from 259 runs.
SceitiminiKTB Fit 36/100
Sceitimini is a limited performer who has shown little since his debut sixth here last year. He has been well beaten on both starts this season and the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Cork from 152 runs offers no encouragement. The trip looks about right on balance but the yard's overall strike-rate at the track remains poor.
Simmering SeasKTB Fit 35/100
Simmering Seas is a limited performer who has shown very little in six starts to date. He has been beaten a long way on both outings this year and makes no appeal from stall 9. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Cork from 33 runs adds little confidence.
Another Nice'dayKTB Fit 32/100
Another Nice'day is a limited sort who has shown very little in ten starts and was beaten a long way when last seen here over this trip. First-time headgear is reached for now but the yard's 0% record at Cork from nine runs offers no encouragement and the jockey has had too few rides here to form any reliable view. Trip and ground look fine on paper yet the overall form leaves the horse with a lot to find.
KTB verdict
The Right One stands out as the KTB Selection. A modest but consistent performer at this track with three placed efforts from three runs, he has the ideal front-running style to take advantage of the uncontested lead that the pace shape suggests. First-time headgear may sharpen him up and the yard's solid course figures add encouragement. His main dangers are likely to be those who can race prominently or are in form, with Kiss Don't Tell and Amerilis the most obvious threats on recent efforts, while Cashel Blue has shown he can win on good ground if overcoming the wide draw.
KTB Selection The Right One
This is the narrative read of the 5:28 Cork. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cork racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
The Right One, who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Three of the five principals are wearing first-time headgear: Gonna Be Golden, Amerilis and The Right One.
Which horse has the best recent course form at Cork?
The Right One, who has been placed on all three starts here with figures of 3rd, 3rd and 2nd.
What is the combined trainer-jockey strike rate for the selection?
The trainer and jockey have a combined record of 31/274 (11%) with an A/E of 1.23.
Which horse has won over the course and distance?
None of the runners have a course-and-distance win; The Right One and Cashel Blue have both won over the trip but not at Cork.
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