5:28 Downpatrick
The Alan Dunlop 90th Birthday Flat Race at Downpatrick brings together a small but interesting field of six for this 2m2f185y bumper on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings point to a race with limited depth, headed by Tommy's Ticket on 57, with Culldoo next on 49 and then Vargas and Greenmeansgo sharing 44. Recent form is thin across the board, with several runners carrying very small samples, meaning the outcome is likely to hinge on how the steadily-run pace shape unfolds and which connections can make their limited evidence count.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape indicating a lack of any obvious leader, this looks set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the field, including Culldoo, Loves A Laugh and Martymill, tend to be held up and produce their efforts late, while Tommy's Ticket usually settles in midfield. The key question is whether the race will develop enough pace for the closers to get into it, or whether those able to race more prominently can steal an advantage in a slowly-run contest.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tommy's Ticket KTB Selection57/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year and form of 63.
- 2Culldoo49/100Culldoo showed fair form when third on debut here over a similar trip.
- 3Vargas44/100Vargas makes his debut for Gordon Elliott who has a solid 18% strike rate from 931 runs at Downpatrick.
- 4Greenmeansgo44/100Greenmeansgo is a debutant with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 5Loves A Laugh43/100Loves A Laugh showed some promise when third on debut here over this trip on good ground.
- 6Martymill40/100Martymill has shown fair placed form in bumpers and over hurdles but lacks real depth to his profile after just five runs.
The contenders
Tommy's Ticket KTB Fit 57/100
Tommy's Ticket is the KTB Selection. Lightly raced with just two runs this year, he showed form of 63 and now steps up in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question. The five-year-old typically settles in midfield. Trainer Chris Timmons has a 50% strike rate at Downpatrick from a small sample with an A/E of 3.66, while the going record shows he was placed once from one run on good ground. Both trainer and going records rest on samples too small to judge with confidence, and he has no course form on record.
Culldoo KTB Fit 49/100
Culldoo showed fair form when third on debut here over a similar trip. The yard of W P Mullins has a solid 27% strike rate at Downpatrick from a big sample of 261 runs with an A/E of 0.83. The jockey, Mr P W Mullins, has a 31% strike rate at the track from 107 rides with an A/E of 0.88, though the combined trainer-jockey record stands at 33% with an A/E of 0.92. He usually races held up and produces his effort late. Everything else rests on very limited evidence so must be read with caution, though he was placed once from one run on good ground and has been placed once from one run at the course.
Vargas KTB Fit 44/100
Vargas makes his debut for Gordon Elliott, who has a solid 18% strike rate at Downpatrick from a large sample of 931 runs with an A/E of 0.88. The yard's recent form with newcomers is hard to gauge from just two pulled-up efforts in the last year. By Vadamos, he has a 9% overall win rate from 2138 runners. The five-year-old has no course win on record and the assessment rests heavily on pedigree and sales background given the complete lack of racecourse data.
Greenmeansgo KTB Fit 44/100
Greenmeansgo is a debutant with no racecourse experience, so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. Trainer John G Carr has a modest 5% strike rate at Downpatrick from 82 runs with an A/E of 0.59. The seven-year-old has no course win on record and no going data available, which gives a neutral score. Connections are giving him a chance at a local track on good ground but there is little else to go on.
The rest of the field
Loves A LaughKTB Fit 43/100
Loves A Laugh showed some promise when third on debut here over this trip on good ground. The yard of S R B Crawford has a modest 6% strike rate at Downpatrick from 199 runs with an A/E of 0.59, while the jockey has a 0% strike rate from one ride with an A/E of 0. With only one run on the clock the form has to be treated very cautiously, though he usually races held up and was placed once from one run at the course.
MartymillKTB Fit 40/100
Martymill has shown fair placed form in bumpers and over hurdles but lacks real depth to his profile after just five runs. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition while the step up in trip poses a fresh question. Trainer Anthony McCann has a modest 3% strike rate at Downpatrick from 31 runs with an A/E of 0.44, and the jockey has a 0% strike rate from 12 rides with an A/E of 0. He has one run on good ground with no win or place and usually races held up.
KTB verdict
Tommy's Ticket is the KTB Selection in a race where the numbers underline how much rests on limited evidence. The selection has shown modest form in two starts this year and now tries a new trip, but the trainer's record at Downpatrick stands out from a small sample. Culldoo is the most obvious danger having shown fair form when third on debut over a similar trip here for a powerful yard, while Vargas brings the unknown factor of a debut for Gordon Elliott. The steadily-run pace shape should suit those who can be handy, and it will be instructive to see how the market views the newcomers and those stepping up in distance.
KTB Selection Tommy's Ticket
This is the narrative read of the 5:28 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Tommy's Ticket steps up in trip today to a distance he has never tried.
What is the trainer strike rate at Downpatrick for the yard of the favourite Culldoo?
W P Mullins has a 27% strike rate at Downpatrick from 261 runs.
Which runner is making a debut for Gordon Elliott?
Vargas makes his debut for Gordon Elliott.
What headgear is Martymill wearing for the first time?
Martymill is wearing first-time headgear.
How many previous runs at Downpatrick has Loves A Laugh had?
Loves A Laugh has run once at Downpatrick, finishing third.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies