5:35 Ascot
The Kensington Palace Stakes is a competitive Class 2 fillies' handicap over a mile at Ascot on good to firm ground, featuring a maximum field of 25 runners. KTB's Fit Scores highlight a tight bunch at the top, headed by Stateira on 63, with American Gal, Cheshire Dancer, Muddy Mooy and Song N Dance all clustered around the 59-60 mark, suggesting the race will be decided by fine margins and how the principals handle the stiff Ascot straight. Several runners are dropping in class while others step up, and with a number unproven on the surface the going adds another layer of uncertainty to an already tricky puzzle.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a truly-run race with plenty of early speed on show from low-drawn runners such as American Gal, Crystal Flyer and Oolong Poobong, who are all likely to press forward. Stateira from stall 13 and a few others may track that pace while wide draws like Song N Dance in 19 and Cheshire Dancer in 17 could find themselves further back in a race where the straight track often rewards those with a well-timed challenge. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall to a strong-traveling closer in what looks a typically strong Ascot handicap.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Stateira KTB Selection63/100Smart performer who arrives in excellent order having won three of her last four starts.
- 2American Gal60/100American Gal is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second on her only visit to Ascot.
- 3Cheshire Dancer59/100Useful performer who has won once from three runs at this track and boasts a solid record at today's trip with four wins from 14 starts.
- 4Muddy Mooy59/100Useful performer who has run well at this track once before when finishing fourth.
- 5Song N Dance59/100Song N Dance is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 211-22 and has already shown his liking for this track when finishing seco…
- 6Crystal Flyer58/100Crystal Flyer is a fair performer who has run well at this track in the past, finishing second on his latest visit here.
- 7Betty Clover57/100Betty Clover is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second here on her penultimate start.
- 8Rumba Numba55/100Rumba Numba is a fair 4-year-old who arrives in solid form after a recent win and has already shown he handles this trip with two wins from four starts.
- 9Rhapsody54/100Rhapsody is a useful performer who has won once from four starts at this trip.
- 10Sand Gazelle54/100Useful performer who has mixed form this year with a win and two placed efforts mixed in with lesser runs.
- 11Radiant Beauty53/100Useful performer who has won five times at this trip and landed her only previous run here at Ascot.
- 12Seren Star51/100Seren Star is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after a placed effort on return and has already won twice at this trip from four attempts.
- 13Alobayyah50/100Alobayyah is a useful performer who showed promise when third on his only previous run at Ascot.
- 14Gaga Girl50/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick after two wins this year.
- 15All Moonshine50/100All Moonshine has won both starts this year after a promising third on debut and looks fairly treated on that record.
- 16Oolong Poobong49/100Oolong Poobong is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning.
- 17Lady Mariko49/100Lady Mariko is a fair performer who has run creditably at this track once when finishing third.
- 18Unassuming46/100Unassuming is a fair performer who has won over this trip and on this ground.
- 19Zgharta46/100Zgharta is a fair performer who has failed to win in eight starts and showed only modest form when sixth of 11 here on reappearance.
- 20Miss Nightfall45/100Miss Nightfall is a fair performer who has twice run respectably at this track without placing.
- 21Renesmee42/100Renesmee is a fair sort who has been consistent enough through the season but rarely looks the strongest finisher.
- 22Quamby41/100Quamby is a fair performer who has run respectably without winning in two starts this year after a consistent placed campaign last season.
- 23Goldilocks Cen40/100Goldilocks Cen showed fair form when winning a minor event on her final start last season.
- 24Perfect Part37/100Fair performer who has been consistent at a lower level without winning for some time.
- 25Callianassa36/100Callianassa is a fair performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
The contenders
Stateira KTB Fit 63/100
Stateira is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order having won three of her last four starts. She is unproven on good to firm ground and makes her first start at Ascot from a wide draw in stall 13. The Andrew Balding yard has a 9% strike rate at the track from 1007 runs with an A/E of 0.88, while James Doyle posts a 12% record from 605 rides with an A/E of 0.99. Trainer and jockey combined show an 18/80 (23%) record with an A/E of 1.19 and positive LSP of +£32.57. Recent form of 12-113 underlines her strong current profile, though the surface and the draw remain the main queries for this four-year-old.
American Gal KTB Fit 60/100
American Gal is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second on her only visit to Ascot. She drops back to 1m today having won three times at the trip from seven attempts, though her latest efforts have been modest with a 7-9 in recent starts. The Ed Walker yard has a 13% strike rate at Ascot from 237 runs with an A/E of 1.19, while Kieran Shoemark is on 9% from 232 rides here with an A/E of 1.15. Trainer and jockey combined show 58/366 (16%) with an A/E of 1.00 and LSP of +£113.12. Her placed effort at the course and the drop in class from recent runs make her an interesting each-way prospect from a favourable draw in stall 5.
Cheshire Dancer KTB Fit 59/100
Cheshire Dancer is a useful performer who has won once from three runs at this track and boasts a solid record at today's trip with four wins from 14 starts. She drops back from 1m2½f to 1m having been well held on her last two outings. The Hugo Palmer stable has an 8% strike rate at Ascot from 187 runs with an A/E of 0.86, while Billy Loughnane operates at 9% from 114 rides here with an A/E of 0.85. Trainer and jockey combined show 6/23 (26%) with an A/E of 1.72 and LSP of +£28.50. Recent form reads 147-05 and she has a 1-5 record on good to firm, so the return to a mile and her course record give her a solid chance from stall 17.
Muddy Mooy KTB Fit 59/100
Muddy Mooy is a useful performer who has run well at this track once before when finishing fourth. She drops back to 1m today having last run over 1m2f and is 1 from 5 at this trip so the distance looks suitable. The Charlie Pike yard has a 0% strike rate at Ascot from a small sample of one run with an A/E of 0, while Edward Greatrex posts a 7% record from 55 rides here with an A/E of 1.22. Trainer and jockey combined show 1/10 (10%) with an A/E of 1.44 and LSP of -£6.80. Recent form of 742-35 and a placed effort on good to firm add to her claims, with the drop in class another positive from stall 9.
Song N Dance KTB Fit 59/100
Song N Dance is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 211-22 and has already shown his liking for this track when finishing second here on his only visit. He has won over today's 1m trip but has never tackled good to firm ground so that remains an unknown. The S Woods yard has a 9% strike rate at Ascot from 87 runs with an A/E of 1.15, while Saffie Osborne is operating at 14% from 125 rides here with a stronger A/E of 1.59. Recent placed efforts underline his reliability and the course second is a clear plus, though the surface and wide draw in stall 19 pose the main questions.
The rest of the field
Crystal FlyerKTB Fit 58/100
Crystal Flyer is a fair performer who has run well at this track in the past, finishing second on his latest visit here. He drops back to 1m today having been placed at the trip before, though he is yet to win or place in three runs on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard and jockey both hold a solid record at Ascot.
Betty CloverKTB Fit 57/100
Betty Clover is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second here on her penultimate start. She has been consistent rather than progressive of late with three placed efforts from her last seven starts at this trip, though she is now dropping back in distance having last run over 1m0½f. The yard and jockey both have a solid 9% strike rate at Ascot with positive A/E figures.
Rumba NumbaKTB Fit 55/100
Rumba Numba is a fair 4-year-old who arrives in solid form after a recent win and has already shown he handles this trip with two wins from four starts. He acts on good to firm ground and holds an edge from a strong recent record that includes course connections. The trainer posts a 12% strike rate from 469 runs at Ascot while the jockey is 11% from 80 rides here.
RhapsodyKTB Fit 54/100
Rhapsody is a useful performer who has won once from four starts at this trip. He showed useful form when winning at Newmarket on his final start last season after earlier promise. The Haggas yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Ascot from a large sample while Fallon is operating at a similar level here.
Sand GazelleKTB Fit 54/100
Sand Gazelle is a useful performer who has mixed form this year with a win and two placed efforts mixed in with lesser runs. She drops back to an untried 1m today having last run over 1m2½f while first-time headgear is also applied. Trainer and jockey both hold a 14% strike rate at Ascot.
Radiant BeautyKTB Fit 53/100
Radiant Beauty is a useful performer who has won five times at this trip and landed her only previous run here at Ascot. She arrives in decent form after a recent success but has never tackled good to firm ground so that remains a question mark. James Owen has a modest 6% strike rate at the track while Ryan Moore's 14% from over a thousand rides is more encouraging.
Seren StarKTB Fit 51/100
Seren Star is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after a placed effort on return and has already won twice at this trip from four attempts. Dropping back from 1m1f looks a sensible move while the good-to-firm ground suits having won on it at the only attempt. First-time headgear is now added from a wide draw on her first visit to Ascot where both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates.
AlobayyahKTB Fit 50/100
Alobayyah is a useful performer who showed promise when third on his only previous run at Ascot. He has won at this trip from three attempts and his recent placed effort after a break suggests he remains competitive at this level. Haggas has a solid 13% strike rate here from a big sample while Marquand is 8% from 425 rides at the track.
Gaga GirlKTB Fit 50/100
Gaga Girl is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after two wins this year. She has form over today's trip but is unproven on good to firm ground and makes her first visit to Ascot from stall 24. Soumillon has an 8% strike rate from 120 rides here.
All MoonshineKTB Fit 50/100
All Moonshine has won both starts this year after a promising third on debut and looks fairly treated on that record. The colt has won at this trip from one attempt and holds strong course connections through his yard. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 9% strike rate here from large samples.
Oolong PoobongKTB Fit 49/100
Oolong Poobong is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. He ran respectably when fourth over course and distance on his only visit to Ascot and has been competitive on good to firm ground. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 24 runs at the track is a negative though the jockey's 10% record from 910 rides offers some balance.
Lady MarikoKTB Fit 49/100
Lady Mariko is a fair performer who has run creditably at this track once when finishing third. She has shown ability at today's trip without winning and handles good to firm ground. The step up from 7f asks a fresh question while the trainer's modest strike rate here is offset by a positive A/E.
UnassumingKTB Fit 46/100
Unassuming is a fair performer who has won over this trip and on this ground. He has also won at Ascot from just two runs here and his recent form is better than it first looks when factoring in the strength of those races. The yard's modest strike rate at the track is a slight negative while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
ZghartaKTB Fit 46/100
Zgharta is a fair performer who has failed to win in eight starts and showed only modest form when sixth of 11 here on reappearance. He has been placed at this trip but has no win or place from two runs on good to firm and two previous visits to Ascot. The yard has a 9% strike rate from 1007 runs at this track while Murphy is on 11% from 514 rides.
Miss NightfallKTB Fit 45/100
Miss Nightfall is a fair performer who has twice run respectably at this track without placing. She steps up to 1m for the first time today having shown little over 7f on her last two starts, though she is 1-4 on good to firm ground. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Ascot while Egan is operating at a 5% rate here.
RenesmeeKTB Fit 42/100
Renesmee is a fair sort who has been consistent enough through the season but rarely looks the strongest finisher. She has placed here before and drops back from 1m4f to a trip she has won at three times from 20 starts, though her latest efforts suggest she may struggle to quicken with the sharper types in this higher-grade race. The trainer has yet to strike at Ascot from seven runs while the 7lb claimer has no previous experience here.
QuambyKTB Fit 41/100
Quamby is a fair performer who has run respectably without winning in two starts this year after a consistent placed campaign last season. He showed enough at this track when fourth on his only visit and now drops back to a trip where he has placed once from three attempts. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates here though the figures are based on decent sample sizes.
Goldilocks CenKTB Fit 40/100
Goldilocks Cen showed fair form when winning a minor event on her final start last season. She drops back to 1m today after her last run over 1m1f and has one previous run at this trip without success. The trainer has only had three runners at Ascot while Luke Morris has a modest 7% strike rate from 262 rides here.
Perfect PartKTB Fit 37/100
Perfect Part is a fair performer who has been consistent at a lower level without winning for some time. He has placed twice at this trip and handles good to firm ground. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Ascot.
CallianassaKTB Fit 36/100
Callianassa is a fair performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has won three times at this trip but showed little on his only previous visit to Ascot and has failed to place in four runs on good to firm ground. The trainer has a 4% strike rate here from 134 runs while the jockey is operating at 7% from 496 rides.
KTB verdict
Stateira is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best current profile of the principals, arriving in excellent order with three wins from her last four starts. The combination of the Balding yard and James Doyle offers reassurance despite the yard's modest 9% strike rate at Ascot, and her smart level of form sets the standard. Main dangers include American Gal, who has placed at the track before and drops in class, and Song N Dance, whose consistency and course second make him a solid each-way contender. Radiant Beauty, with Ryan Moore aboard and an Ascot win to her name, and the in-form Alobayyah are others who can feature if the unknowns over the ground do not prove insurmountable.
KTB Selection Stateira
This is the narrative read of the 5:35 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Stateira has the highest KTB Fit Score of 63/100.
How many wins has Stateira recorded in her last four starts?
Stateira has won three of her last four starts.
Which runner has course form at Ascot including a win?
Cheshire Dancer has won once from three runs at Ascot, while Radiant Beauty and Unassuming have also won here.
Who rides the KTB Selection and what is their Ascot strike rate?
James Doyle rides Stateira and has a 12% strike rate at Ascot from 605 rides with an A/E of 0.99.
Which principals are dropping in class for this race?
American Gal, Cheshire Dancer and Muddy Mooy are dropping in class.
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