5:35 Bath
This Class 6 handicap over 1m3f137y at Bath on good ground brings together a small but competitive field of six modest performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 51 and 39, underlining how little separates the runners on paper and how the race should revolve around who handles a genuinely-run pace best. Recent form is patchy across the board, with several horses dropping in class or returning to a track where they have shown some affinity.
How the race shapes up
A front-runner is likely to be pressed by several handy types, creating a genuinely-run, fair test as indicated by the high-confidence pace shape. Offiah's Boy is the most obvious leader from draw 6, with Belle Amie and Jodhpur Blue both prominent runners who will sit close to the pace and apply pressure. The three held-up runners – Shaffron, Trojan Truth and Douglas Dc – will look to come from off the pace, meaning the key question is whether the leaders overdo it or if the closers can time their efforts in a race that should provide a proper stamina test.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Belle Amie51/100
Belle Amie is a limited class performer who has won over this trip and showed her best form when landing a similar race here on her only previous visit to Bath. She has been in and out of form this year but ran creditably when third at Windsor last time and drops back from 1m5f. The 4-year-old has a prominent run-style, usually racing handily on or close to the lead, which should suit the anticipated pace. David Simcock maintains a solid 19% strike rate at the track from 77 runs while Callum Shepherd operates at a 10% strike rate at Bath from 152 rides. She is 1-3 on good ground with a further placed effort and has won once from one visit to the course.
-
2Shaffron KTB Selection51/100
Shaffron is a modest performer who has shown little progress in seven starts and remains winless. He has been placed twice at this trip without looking dangerous and the latest third at Bath came in a weaker race than this. The selection is dropping in class and his held-up run-style, usually producing his effort late with high confidence, could be well suited if the race develops as expected. David Menuisier strikes at a fair 14% rate at the track from seven runs while Saffie Osborne is operating below his usual level at Bath with an 8% strike rate from 97 rides. He has no course form on record and has had one run on good ground without placing.
-
3Trojan Truth50/100
Trojan Truth is a limited performer who has shown enough in recent starts to remain competitive at this level. He has won at today's trip but his record around here is ordinary with no placed efforts from four runs at Bath. The 7-year-old is another held-up type who usually produces his effort late with high confidence. Ed de Giles continues to have a solid 15% strike-rate at the track from 147 runs while Luke Morris's long-term figures are a bit below par at 11% from 720 rides. He is placed once from six starts on good ground without winning.
-
4Offiah's Boy50/100
Offiah's Boy is a limited horse who has won twice at this track from seven runs and also has two wins from six starts at today's trip. Recent form is patchy but the 213 segment shows he can be competitive in this grade when on a going day. His front-running style, tending to make the running or race on the pace, should see him set the early fractions in what is expected to be a genuinely-run race. Joe Tickle has a 12% strike rate at Bath from 81 runs and Taylor Fisher is on 12% from 127 rides at the track. He has no win or place from six runs on good ground, leaving his effectiveness on today's surface open to question.
-
5Jodhpur Blue49/100
Jodhpur Blue is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, finishing in the first three four times from his last six starts. He has run just once at Bath and finished well beaten, while his record on good ground is solid but winless. The 5-year-old is dropping in class and his prominent run-style should see him race handily. Ian Williams and Edward Greatrex both sit on 12% strike rates here from decent-sized samples.
-
6Douglas Dc39/100
Douglas Dc is a limited performer who has been placed seven times at this trip without winning and has shown similar placed form on good ground. He has run only once here at Bath when finishing seventh and has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. The 8-year-old is held up in his run-style. Tony Carroll has a solid 11% strike-rate at the track from 856 runs while Kieren Fox is operating at 7%.
KTB verdict
The race looks set to be decided by how the prominent horses and held-up types interact in what should be a genuinely-run contest. Shaffron is the KTB Selection and, despite being winless, has shown placed form at this trip and at the track in a weaker race last time. Dropping in class can only help the 4-year-old, whose late run-style may be ideally suited if the front-runners go hard. Belle Amie, with her course win and recent placed effort, Offiah's Boy with his record at the track, and Trojan Truth who remains competitive, are the main dangers in a field where little separates them on KTB Fit.
KTB Selection Shaffron
This is the narrative read of the 5:35 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won over the course and distance before?
None of the runners have a course-and-distance win. Belle Amie and Offiah's Boy have both won over the trip, while Belle Amie and Offiah's Boy have won at the course.
How many of the principals are held up in running?
Two of the four principals – Shaffron and Trojan Truth – are held-up runners with high confidence in their run-styles.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Bath among those represented?
David Simcock has a 19% strike rate at Bath from 77 runs, the highest among the trainers in this race.
Has any horse in the field won at today's trip?
Belle Amie, Trojan Truth and Offiah's Boy have all won at today's trip.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Shaffron and Jodhpur Blue are both dropping in class.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies