5:36 Windsor
This Class 5 handicap over 6f12y at Windsor on good to firm ground brings together an even field of eleven three-year-olds, most of them modest performers with relatively exposed form. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Court Alert on 57, with several others within a few points and a general lack of progressive types on view. Dropping in class looks a positive for a couple, while first-time headgear is a feature for three runners, and the overall picture is one of a race that could be dictated from the front.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one horse getting an uncontested lead that could prove hard for closers to overcome. Guernsey Angel is the most likely to take that role given its front-running style, while Court Alert tends to race prominently and could sit close to that pace from stall 1. Most of the remainder, including Solar Invincible, Maid In Devon, Pilgrim's Progress and the majority of the field, are held-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace, so the key question is whether anything can close the gap on an unpressured leader over this straight track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Court Alert KTB Selection57/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with placed efforts on his last two starts.
- 2Solar Invincible56/100Modest performer who has been placed on both previous runs at Windsor without winning.
- 3Maid In Devon53/100Modest performer who has won three times over this trip from seven attempts and handles good to firm ground.
- 4Guernsey Angel52/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, placing on good to firm and at today's trip.
- 5Pilgrim's Progress51/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning.
- 6Dark Alley49/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in three runs this season and now tries first-time headgear.
- 7Double Naughty45/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form since a promising third on debut.
- 8Koffee And Kale44/100Modest performer who has been placed on both previous visits to Windsor without winning.
- 9Two And Two43/100Modest performer who has won once at this trip from two attempts but has been below that level in four runs since.
- 10Madman39/100Modest performer who has won twice this year including over this trip.
- 11Deadline39/100Modest performer who has finished sixth on all three starts to date.
The contenders
Court Alert KTB Fit 57/100
Court Alert is a modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with placed efforts on his last two starts. He steps up from 5f to 6f for the first time today having already placed once at the trip without winning, while first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer strikes at 10% here from a big sample while the jockey is operating above expectations with a 12% strike rate from 78 rides. He has been placed twice from five runs on good to firm and is dropping in class from a low draw that should allow him to race handily. Recent form figures of 0-8432 underline a reliable rather than flashy profile that fits this field well.
Solar Invincible KTB Fit 56/100
Solar Invincible is a modest performer who has been placed on both previous runs at Windsor without winning. He has been consistent rather than progressive of late with form figures of 415422 and first-time headgear is now reached for after another solid effort last time. The trainer and jockey both have established but unspectacular records at the track while he has been competitive on good to firm, with two placed efforts from as many starts on the surface. A held-up run-style means he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it.
Maid In Devon KTB Fit 53/100
Maid In Devon is a modest performer who has won three times over this trip from seven attempts and handles good to firm ground. Recent form of 451116 shows a clear uptick in form this year yet she was well held on her only previous run here. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 805 runs at Windsor while the jockey is operating at 11% from 35 rides. She will be held up in the race and produces her effort late, so the shape may not play to her strengths if the leader is allowed to dominate.
Guernsey Angel KTB Fit 52/100
Guernsey Angel is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, placing on good to firm and at today's trip. He has run just once at Windsor and was well held, while both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track. Recent form has been ordinary with figures of 456625 and there are no standout positives here. His front-running style could see him take the uncontested lead suggested by the pace shape, which may give him a chance to steal it if the held-up brigade cannot bridge the gap.
Pilgrim's Progress KTB Fit 51/100
Pilgrim's Progress is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. He finished second both over this course and at today's trip, though he steps back up in distance from his latest 5f run. The trainer has a solid 15% strike-rate here from a big sample while the jockey's 11% record is in line with expectations. Dropping in class is another plus and his held-up style means he will be among those trying to come from off the pace in what could be a steadily-run affair.
The rest of the field
Dark AlleyKTB Fit 49/100
Dark Alley is a modest performer who has shown little spark in three runs this season and now tries first-time headgear. He has placed once from three starts over this course and ground but has never won in eight career runs and steps up in trip having looked stretched at 5f last time.
Double NaughtyKTB Fit 45/100
Double Naughty is a modest performer who has been largely out of form since a promising third on debut. She steps up from 5f to 6f today having already placed once at the trip without winning, and acts on good to firm having scored once from five starts on the surface.
Koffee And KaleKTB Fit 44/100
Koffee And Kale is a modest performer who has been placed on both previous visits to Windsor without winning. He drops back to 6f today having been placed once at the trip from four attempts, though his recent form has been ordinary and he has not won in 12 starts.
Two And TwoKTB Fit 43/100
Two And Two is a modest performer who has won once at this trip from two attempts but has been below that level in four runs since. He drops back from 7f today which looks a sensible move on recent form.
MadmanKTB Fit 39/100
Madman is a modest performer who has won twice this year including over this trip. He has won here from four runs at Windsor and acts on good to firm.
DeadlineKTB Fit 39/100
Deadline is a modest performer who has finished sixth on all three starts to date. He is drawn wide in stall 11 and yet to show any real spark at this trip.
KTB verdict
Court Alert is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of recent consistency, a handy draw, and the first-time headgear to sharpen him up in a race where his prominent style can see him track the likely leader. The drop in class adds to his appeal while the yard and jockey both have respectable records at the venue. His main dangers are likely to be Solar Invincible, who knows the track well and is also reaching for headgear, and Maid In Devon, who has the best recent winning form but may find the shape against her. Guernsey Angel could capitalise on the lone-leader scenario if allowed an easy time upfront.
KTB Selection Court Alert
This is the narrative read of the 5:36 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Guernsey Angel is the most likely leader given its front-running style and the pace shape that points to one clear front-runner with little pressure.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Three of the top five are wearing first-time headgear: Court Alert, Solar Invincible and there is also first-time headgear for Dark Alley in the field.
Which horse has the strongest recent winning record at the trip?
Maid In Devon has won three times over this trip from seven attempts.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Windsor among the principals?
Richard Hannon has a 15% strike rate at Windsor from 797 runs for Pilgrim's Progress.
Which horse has course form at Windsor including a win?
Madman has won here from four runs at Windsor.
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