5:40 Lingfield (AW)
A Class 6 handicap over 1m4f on the Lingfield all-weather brings together a field of largely limited three-year-olds, many of whom are unproven at the trip or on the surface. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Lady Of Clover just heading Naranka, while several runners sport first-time headgear or are dropping in class in search of improvement. With the pace expected to be strong, the race could set up for those capable of producing their effort from off the pace late on.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners in Turton and Pepper Fizz, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. Several hold-up performers, including the selection Lady Of Clover, Naranka, Notable Charm, Crazy Plan, Amalou and Cormorant Rock, should be able to track the tempo before delivering their efforts in the straight. The key question is whether the pace collapses in the latter stages, which would play into the hands of those coming from off the pace rather than those up front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Lady Of Clover KTB Selection53/100Limited filly who has shown ordinary form over shorter trips this year and now steps up markedly in distance.
- 2Naranka52/100Limited class performer who has shown better form since handicapping, winning over this trip at Kempton in January and finishing second on his latest start.
- 3Notable Charm47/100Limited performer who has shown little in five starts to date and was well held when ninth of ten on this track last time.
- 4Crazy Plan45/100Limited horse who has shown little in five runs and was well held when fourth of six over 1m2f here last time.
- 5Dijon Gone44/100Limited performer who has shown very little in five runs to date.
- 6Amalou40/100Amalou showed little in three runs last year, finishing well beaten on each occasion, and carries the limited tag for a reason.
- 7Turton40/100Limited on what he has shown in five runs and the recent form of 86956 offers little encouragement.
- 8Pepper Fizz39/100Pepper Fizz is a limited performer on the balance of her ratings and recent form that has offered little encouragement in three starts this year.
- 9Angel Breeze39/100Limited horse who has shown very little in three runs to date, though she did manage a modest third on her most recent start.
- 10Cormorant Rock36/100Limited performer who has shown little in seven runs and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Lingfield.
The contenders
Lady Of Clover KTB Fit 53/100
Lady Of Clover is a limited filly who has shown ordinary form over shorter trips this year and now steps up markedly in distance. She has a single win on standard ground from five starts and the booking of Liam Wright is a plus given his solid 16% strike rate at Lingfield AW. The trainer's modest 10% record at the track from 124 runs adds a note of caution. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is drawn in stall four in a race where the strong pace should suit her style. Her recent form of 363143 gives a fair reflection of her ordinary level. As the KTB Selection she is taken to capitalise on the likely late collapse.
Naranka KTB Fit 52/100
Naranka is a limited class performer who has shown better form since handicapping, winning over this trip at Kempton in January and finishing second on his latest start. Drawn in stall six he should get a decent pace to chase in a strongly-run race. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at Lingfield AW, with George Baker at 14% from 444 runs and Pat Cosgrave at 12% from 838 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he arrives with recent form of 57-021 that suggests he is competitive at this level. The surface remains unproven but the trip is clearly within his compass. He looks sure to go well if handling the conditions.
Notable Charm KTB Fit 47/100
Notable Charm is a limited performer who has shown little in five starts to date and was well held when ninth of ten on this track last time. First-time headgear is now applied in a race where he meets mostly similar types, but the yard's solid 16% strike-rate here from 461 runs offers some encouragement. Usually held up though with limited evidence, he is drawn in stall one which could be an advantage if the race develops as expected. Trip and ground both remain open questions with so few runs behind him. Dropping in class, his recent form of 09646 offers little to shout about but the headgear may spark improvement.
Crazy Plan KTB Fit 45/100
Crazy Plan is a limited horse who has shown little in five runs and was well held when fourth of six over 1m2f here last time. He steps up to 1m4f for the first time today having been placed once at the trip without winning. The trainer is 0-7 at the track while the jockey operates at a 9% strike rate from 564 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has competitive form on standard ground without winning. His recent form of 70-024 suggests he is capable of being in the mix at this modest level if the trip suits.
Dijon Gone KTB Fit 44/100
Dijon Gone is a limited performer who has shown very little in five runs to date. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up to an untried 1m4f. Trainer and jockey both have modest but established records at Lingfield AW, with the yard at 10% from 338 runs. Typically settling in midfield though with limited evidence, his recent form of 6-0087 paints a modest picture. The headgear may help him show more but he has plenty to find on what he has shown so far.
The rest of the field
AmalouKTB Fit 40/100
Amalou showed little in three runs last year, finishing well beaten on each occasion, and carries the limited tag for a reason. The step up from 1m to 1m4f poses a fresh question while the wide draw is far from ideal on this track. Dropping in class, trainer Daniel and Claire Kubler record a 10% strike-rate from 62 runs at Lingfield AW.
TurtonKTB Fit 40/100
Turton is limited on what he has shown in five runs and the recent form of 86956 offers little encouragement. He steps up to 1m4f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, the yard and jockey both have solid strike rates at Lingfield AW.
Pepper FizzKTB Fit 39/100
Pepper Fizz is a limited performer on the balance of her ratings and recent form that has offered little encouragement in three starts this year. She steps up markedly in trip having been well held over shorter and is unproven on standard going. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, both the yard and jockey operate at a 4% strike rate here.
Angel BreezeKTB Fit 39/100
Angel Breeze is a limited horse who has shown very little in three runs to date, though she did manage a modest third on her most recent start. The step up to 1m4f poses a fresh question. Dropping in class, the trainer has a 5% strike rate here from 21 runs while jockey Luke Morris posts a 12% record from over 3000 rides at the track.
Cormorant RockKTB Fit 36/100
Cormorant Rock is a limited performer who has shown little in seven runs and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Lingfield. He steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact over 1m4f last time. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the trainer holds a modest 9% strike rate here from a large sample while the 7lb claimer has a fair recent record at the track.
KTB verdict
The strong pace should set things up for a hold-up horse and Lady Of Clover is the KTB Selection. A limited filly who has shown ordinary form over shorter trips this year, she steps up markedly in distance but has a win on standard ground and benefits from the booking of Liam Wright whose 16% strike rate at the track is a positive. The strong pace looks likely to collapse late, which will suit her usual held-up style. Naranka is the obvious danger having won over the trip and shown better form since handicapping, while Notable Charm cannot be entirely dismissed with first-time headgear and a yard that fares well here.
KTB Selection Lady Of Clover
This is the narrative read of the 5:40 Lingfield (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Lingfield (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up most markedly in distance?
Lady Of Clover is stepping up markedly in distance having shown ordinary form over shorter trips this year.
How many habitual front-runners are in the field?
There are two or more habitual front-runners, with Turton and Pepper Fizz both tending to make the running or race on the pace.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Notable Charm and Dijon Gone are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Lingfield AW among the principals?
Liam Wright has a 16% strike rate at Lingfield AW from 77 rides.
Which horse has course form at Lingfield but no wins or places?
Notable Charm ran once here finishing ninth, Crazy Plan has two runs here finishing fourth and eleventh, and Cormorant Rock finished twelfth on his only visit.
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