5:42 Uttoxeter
This Class 5 handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter over 2m3f207y on good ground features a field of nine where the KTB numbers point to a competitive contest among several useful performers dropping in class. The top four in the KTB Fit rankings are separated by just ten points, with October Hill heading the list on 68. First-time headgear appears on four runners, adding an extra layer of interest to a race where recent form is mixed and trip or track questions remain for most.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style evidence across the field to form a reliable picture. Only Ashdown Forest is noted as usually held up and producing its effort late, though that assessment carries limited evidence. The race is therefore likely to develop with uncertain early fractions, posing the key question of which horse will be best placed to capitalise once the tempo settles.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1October Hill KTB Selection68/100Useful performer who won over this trip last time before falling in the one after.
- 2Fiskardo65/100Useful performer who has shown plenty in two starts since returning from a break, finishing second then third.
- 3Sonyourastar59/100Sonyourastar is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but has been below that level in three runs this year.
- 4Ashdown Forest58/100Ashdown Forest is a fair performer who showed improved form when scoring over 2m here last time.
- 5The Secret Pearl55/100Useful performer who has shown consistent placed form this season without winning.
- 6Uhtred Ragnarson55/100Smart performer who has shown strong form in better company and looks well treated in this grade.
- 7Tommy Cullen53/100Useful performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without progressing.
- 8Mc'flo51/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and is 0-11 overall.
- 9Papillondelumiere45/100Fair performer on limited evidence but has been well below that level on both starts this year and was pulled up last time.
The contenders
October Hill KTB Fit 68/100
October Hill is a useful performer who won over this trip last time before falling in the one after. He has placed four times from seven runs on good ground and the yard has a solid 16% strike rate at Uttoxeter from a big sample. First-time headgear is now fitted on his first run here. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 21/78 (27%) record with an A/E of 1.40 and positive LSP of +£32.93. Dropping in class looks a positive move for this 6-year-old.
Fiskardo KTB Fit 65/100
Fiskardo is a useful performer who has shown plenty in two starts since returning from a break, finishing second then third. He placed on his only previous run here and the trainer has a solid 22% strike rate at Uttoxeter, while he has already won on good ground. First-time headgear is now added as he steps up in trip for the first time. The trainer and jockey show an 11% strike rate together with an A/E of 0.70. This 6-year-old is dropping in class and arrives with recent placed form.
Sonyourastar KTB Fit 59/100
Sonyourastar is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but has been below that level in three runs this year. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition for a horse with only four career starts and he has already tried this trip once without success. Olly Murphy has a solid 21% strike rate at Uttoxeter from 387 runs while Sean Bowen is riding here. The trainer and jockey combination records a 25% strike rate with an A/E of 0.97. This 6-year-old is another dropping in class.
Ashdown Forest KTB Fit 58/100
Ashdown Forest is a fair performer who showed improved form when scoring over 2m here last time. The yard and jockey both have strong records at Uttoxeter and the horse is 1 from 1 at the track with a win on good ground. Stepping up in trip for the first time asks a fresh question. Usually held up and producing its effort late, though with limited evidence. The trainer and jockey show a 22% strike rate together with an A/E of 0.90. This 4-year-old is ridden by Harry Skelton.
The rest of the field
The Secret PearlKTB Fit 55/100
The Secret Pearl is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form this season without winning. Steps up in trip for the first time in first-time headgear while making a debut at Uttoxeter where the trainer operates at an 8% strike rate from 194 runs. Goes well on good ground with a win and three places from seven starts.
Uhtred RagnarsonKTB Fit 55/100
Uhtred Ragnarson is a smart performer who has shown strong form in better company and looks well treated in this grade. Steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question though his pedigree suggests he should handle the extra distance. Alan King has a solid 14% strike rate at Uttoxeter while the horse makes his debut here.
Tommy CullenKTB Fit 53/100
Tommy Cullen is a useful performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without progressing. Steps up in trip today having already won over this distance in the past and is proven on good ground with two wins from 11 starts. First-time headgear is tried while both trainer and jockey have only limited experience at Uttoxeter.
Mc'floKTB Fit 51/100
Mc'flo is a modest performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and is 0-11 overall. Drops back in trip today having looked stretched over further last time, though he has already tried this distance without success and holds no wins or places from seven runs on good ground. Trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here from 11 runs.
PapillondelumiereKTB Fit 45/100
Papillondelumiere is a fair performer on limited evidence but has been well below that level on both starts this year and was pulled up last time. Drops back in trip with first-time headgear and a 7 lb claimer on board. Small sample for everything here so read with caution.
KTB verdict
October Hill stands out as the KTB Selection. A useful performer who won over this trip before falling next time out, he has placed four times from seven runs on good ground and the David Pipe yard brings a solid 16% strike rate at Uttoxeter from a large sample. First-time headgear is now fitted on his first run at the track while dropping in class, which strengthens his claims. The main dangers are likely to come from Fiskardo, who has shown placed form since returning and also tries headgear while stepping up in trip, and Sonyourastar, whose first-time headgear adds interest despite recent below-par efforts.
KTB Selection October Hill
This is the narrative read of the 5:42 Uttoxeter. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Uttoxeter racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first appearance at Uttoxeter while wearing first-time headgear?
The Secret Pearl is making a debut at Uttoxeter in first-time headgear while stepping up in trip.
How many of the field are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are wearing first-time headgear: October Hill, Fiskardo, Sonyourastar and Tommy Cullen, with Papillondelumiere and The Secret Pearl also in headgear.
Which runner has already won over the course and distance of this race?
No runner has won over the exact course and distance; Ashdown Forest won over 2m here last time while October Hill won over this trip last time.
Who has the strongest trainer-jockey record at Uttoxeter among the principals?
Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton have strong records at Uttoxeter with respective 23% and 29% strike rates.
Which horse is dropping back in trip after looking stretched over further last time?
Mc'flo drops back in trip after looking stretched over further last time and is 0-11 overall.
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