5:45 Newbury
This Class 4 EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (Div 2) over 6f at Newbury on good to firm ground features an 11-runner field of mostly unexposed two-year-olds. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Princess Ivy, Laylaty and Cubbie's Dream all rated around the 50 mark, underlining the low data confidence that characterises the race as a whole. With several debutants, multiple runners unproven on the surface and limited course form on display, the contest poses more questions than answers.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a race that should be run at a fair clip, with several prominent runners and no obvious hold-up types dominating the field. Laylaty and Sugar Yes Please have both shown early speed on debut while Ouragan and Ennerdale Water are likely to track the leaders from their inside draws. The key question is whether the leaders can get away with it on this stiff track or whether the race will fall to something that can improve off a strong gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Princess Ivy KTB Selection51/100Princess Ivy showed very little on her 5f debut and steps up to 6f today as an unknown quantity.
- 2Laylaty50/100Laylaty showed some promise when fourth on debut over this trip and looks sure to improve with racing.
- 3Cubbie's Dream50/100Cubbie's Dream is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and therefore low data confidence.
- 4Dun Eideann49/100Dun Eideann has shown little so far with two modest sixth places and a recent refusal.
- 5Ouragan49/100Ouragan showed only modest form when fifth on debut over this trip.
- 6My Normandie48/100My Normandie has shown little so far with a 756 record over shorter trips and now steps up to 6f for the first time in a race.
- 7Kiss Of Life48/100Kiss Of Life is a debutant so the form book offers nothing concrete.
- 8Sugar Yes Please47/100Sugar Yes Please showed only modest form when finishing fourth on debut here over this trip.
- 9Celestial Mist47/100Celestial Mist showed little at Newbury on debut over this trip and looks to have plenty to find.
- 10Ennerdale Water44/100Ennerdale Water showed very little on debut when finishing ninth over 5.5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time.
- 11So Tempting38/100So Tempting has shown little in two starts so far finishing sixth here on debut and then eighth last time.
The contenders
Princess Ivy KTB Fit 51/100
Princess Ivy showed very little on her 5f debut and steps up to 6f today as an unknown quantity. The Richard Hannon yard posts an 11 percent strike rate at Newbury from a huge sample while Joe Leavy has a 9 percent record from 54 rides here. With only one run on the board and no meaningful going data this is a low-confidence profile that needs to improve markedly. Drawn in stall five she should at least see out the trip better than she did over the minimum. The selection comes into this with the highest KTB Fit Score of 51 and is taken to show the required progress.
Laylaty KTB Fit 50/100
Laylaty showed some promise when fourth on debut over this trip and looks sure to improve with racing. The yard has a modest 6% strike-rate at Newbury from 54 runs while the jockey is operating at a strong 29% here from 17 rides. Everything else is based on a single run so read with caution. Callum Rodriguez is a notable booking and his record at the track adds interest to the Harry Charlton filly. From draw nine she is likely to be prominent early and her debut effort suggests she can build on that here.
Cubbie's Dream KTB Fit 50/100
Cubbie's Dream is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and therefore low data confidence. The Portman yard's modest 7% strike-rate at Newbury from a big sample suggests no home advantage, while Rob Hornby also operates at a similar modest level here. Pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment. By Caturra, she represents a yard that knows this division well and the Jonathan Portman name carries extra weight in a race named in his honour. From stall seven she could be given a chance if the market speaks positively.
Dun Eideann KTB Fit 49/100
Dun Eideann has shown little so far with two modest sixth places and a recent refusal. Dropping back to 6f poses a fresh question after his latest effort over 7f where he failed to finish. The yard records a 10% strike rate at Newbury from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 5% here. A drop in class is noted but the refusal last time raises a serious question mark. From the inside draw William Cox may try to get him into a rhythm early but his overall profile remains modest.
Ouragan KTB Fit 49/100
Ouragan showed only modest form when fifth on debut over this trip. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Newbury from a decent-sized sample while Luke Morris is operating at a 6% strike rate here. With just one run in the book and low data confidence any firm conclusions would be unwise. Archie Watson's team are rarely far away in these races and the stable's Newbury record adds some encouragement. Drawn low she should get a nice tow into the race and can be expected to improve from her initial effort.
The rest of the field
My NormandieKTB Fit 48/100
My Normandie has shown little so far with a 756 record over shorter trips and now steps up to 6f for the first time in a race. The yard posts an 11 percent strike rate at Newbury from 53 runs while the jockey is 4 percent from 27 rides here. With only three career starts data confidence remains low so this lightly raced colt is best read with caution.
Kiss Of LifeKTB Fit 48/100
Kiss Of Life is a debutant so the form book offers nothing concrete. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate at Newbury from 81 runs while George Bass is less prolific here with a 6% record from 49 rides. Pedigree and sales background will decide how much interest there is.
Sugar Yes PleaseKTB Fit 47/100
Sugar Yes Please showed only modest form when finishing fourth on debut here over this trip. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 457 runs at Newbury while Charles Bishop is operating at 7% from 399 rides at the track. With just one run on the clock and limited data overall this is very much a watching brief.
Celestial MistKTB Fit 47/100
Celestial Mist showed little at Newbury on debut over this trip and looks to have plenty to find. The yard's modest 8% strike rate here from a big sample offers no obvious encouragement. With only one run on the board the colt remains largely unknown.
Ennerdale WaterKTB Fit 44/100
Ennerdale Water showed very little on debut when finishing ninth over 5.5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time. The small sample means both going suitability and overall ability remain unknown. Clive Cox has an 8% strike rate from 682 runs at Newbury while Rossa Ryan is on 10% from 273 rides here.
So TemptingKTB Fit 38/100
So Tempting has shown little in two starts so far finishing sixth here on debut and then eighth last time. The yard's modest 3% strike rate at Newbury from 97 runs offers no encouragement nor does the jockey's 4% record from 47 rides. With only two runs on his record the colt remains hard to assess.
KTB verdict
Princess Ivy is the KTB Selection in a race where most participants carry plenty of unknowns. She needs to improve on her debut effort but the yard and jockey both have respectable records at Newbury and the step up to 6f looks a positive. Laylaty is the most obvious danger having shown promise on debut while Cubbie's Dream, Ouragan and Sugar Yes Please are others who can be given a chance on limited evidence. The race is likely to be decided by which of these unexposed types improves the most.
KTB Selection Princess Ivy
This is the narrative read of the 5:45 Newbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and is the selection?
Princess Ivy with a KTB Fit Score of 51.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Newbury in this field?
Callum Rodriguez with a 29% strike rate at Newbury from 17 rides.
How many runners in the field are making their racecourse debut?
Two: Cubbie's Dream and Kiss Of Life.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Dun Eideann.
Which horse has previous course form at Newbury?
Sugar Yes Please finished fourth here on debut and Celestial Mist finished tenth here on debut.
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