5:45 Stratford
This Class 3 Wynchwood Handicap Steeple Chase over 2m0f213y at Stratford on good ground brings together a compact field of six where the KTB Fit scores identify a clear quartet of principals. Breaking Cover tops the ratings on 80 with strong recent form and proven stamina for the trip, while Captain Cool, Sir Tivo and Sony Bill follow closely on 69, 66 and 54 respectively. The overall numbers point to a competitive renewal in which class and course experience will be at a premium.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners set to go forward early. Sir Tivo tends to make the running while Gower Prince is also capable of taking a prominent position, and that early speed could prove testing on this sharp track. The shape therefore poses the question of whether the leaders will pay for their exertions late on, with the race likely to favour those held up off the strong gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Breaking Cover KTB Selection80/100
Breaking Cover is a high-class performer with a solid recent record and proven ability at this trip, where he has won four times from nine starts. He acts on good ground with three wins from nine runs and has strong course connections through his trainer, who holds a 35% strike rate from 52 runs at Stratford. The horse has only run here once before, finishing fourth, while the claiming jockey has a small sample of just four rides at the track. Dropping in class, he is held up and produces his effort late, a style that should be ideally suited if the anticipated strong pace materialises. His form figures of 26-441 underline his consistency at this level.
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2Captain Cool69/100
Captain Cool is a high-class performer with a strong recent record of 122131 and three wins from four starts at this track. He drops back in trip today having won four times over this distance previously though his record on good ground shows only one win from nine starts. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 89 runs here while the jockey is operating at 7% from 107 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well placed to capitalise if the front-runners go hard early. Dropping in class, his course record of three wins from four starts makes him a major player.
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3Sir Tivo66/100
Sir Tivo remains a high-class performer at the age of 12 with a solid course record of four wins from nine runs at Stratford. He has won five times at today's trip from 14 attempts though the drop back from 2m3½f asks a fresh question. The yard holds a strong 20% strike rate at the track while the jockey has no previous rides here. A habitual front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently, he is likely to set the early fractions in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. His recent form of -4231P includes a win and he has ten wins from 37 starts on good ground.
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4Sony Bill54/100
Sony Bill is high-class on his best days and well backed by the ratings. He drops back from 3m to 2m today after a recent pull-up while the yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Stratford. The jockey is only 5% at the track and the horse is 0-4 on good ground so far. Usually held up and producing his effort late, though with medium confidence in that assessment, he will hope the strong pace collapses in the latter stages. Dropping in class, his recent form reads 5-433P.
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5In This World47/100
In This World is a smart performer who has placed here without winning in seven runs, most recently finishing second over this trip on good ground. Consistent rather than progressive of late with form figures P5-5F2, though he has won at today's distance and handles the surface. Stepping up in class, the trainer's small sample at Stratford offers little guidance while the jockey's solid 9% strike-rate here provides some encouragement.
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6Gower Prince40/100
Gower Prince is a smart performer who arrives in solid nick after two recent wins. He has placed here without winning and his record on good ground is only fair with two wins from sixteen runs. Stepping up in class, the yard has a modest 0% strike-rate from 21 runs at Stratford while the jockey is also 0% from nine rides.
KTB verdict
Breaking Cover is the KTB Selection and he has the best blend of class, recent form and trainer-course statistics to take this race. His proven record at the trip, ability to act on good ground and hold-up style that matches the expected strong pace give him every chance of landing the spoils. Captain Cool and Sir Tivo, with their excellent course records, represent the main dangers, while Sony Bill could improve dropping back in trip and in class.
KTB Selection Breaking Cover
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:17 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Breaking Cover | 9/4 | Bet365 |
| Captain Cool | 9/4 | 7Bet |
| Sir Tivo | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Sony Bill | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| In This World | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Gower Prince | 5/2 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 5:45 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Stratford results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Stratford?
Breaking Cover's trainer Anthony Honeyball has a 35% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 1.57 from 52 runs.
How does the expected pace shape influence the race?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are suited by a hold-up style?
Breaking Cover, Captain Cool, Sony Bill and In This World are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
What is Sir Tivo's course record at Stratford?
Sir Tivo has four wins from nine runs at Stratford.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from 3m?
Sony Bill drops back from 3m to 2m today.
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