5:51 Wexford
The Neville Hotels Handicap Hurdle at Wexford over 2m180y on good ground brings together a competitive field of eight where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 50 and 63. The top four are separated by just eight points on the KTB scale, underlining a race that looks full of depth on paper. With no obvious front-runner declared, the KTB numbers point towards a race that will be decided by positioning, timing and which horse can best handle a tactical, steadily-run contest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any natural leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the field, including the selection, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, which could lead to a bunching of runners turning in. The key question is whether the race will fragment early or remain compact, rewarding those who can pick up smartly off a steady gallop without getting caught too far back.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Shaboozee KTB Selection63/100Shaboozee is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after two wins and two placed efforts from his last four starts.
- 2Mode Avion60/100High-class performer who has already won over this trip and arrives with strong ratings and race history behind him.
- 3Jabbar58/100High-class performer on his day with a solid recent record that includes a win at this trip.
- 4Splashing Out55/100Smart performer who has won at this trip and shown he handles good ground.
- 5Ma Belle Etoile55/100Smart mare who has won over hurdles here and looks well treated on her best form.
- 6Wonderfulwonderful54/100Smart performer who has won at this trip and holds a solid record on good ground with a win and three places from six runs.
- 7Now So Jake51/100Smart performer who showed useful form when winning twice last year.
- 8Tassarolo50/100Smart performer who arrives in solid form having won twice and placed once from his last five starts.
The contenders
Shaboozee KTB Fit 63/100
Shaboozee is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after two wins and two placed efforts from his last four starts. He has already shown he can win on good ground and at this trip, though he is making his first appearance at Wexford. The trainer holds a strong 21% strike rate here while the jockey sits on 12%. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the steadily-run nature of this contest. With a KTB Fit of 63 he tops the ratings and is taken to land this.
Mode Avion KTB Fit 60/100
Mode Avion is a high-class performer who has already won over this trip and arrives with strong ratings and race history behind him. Gordon Elliott's 13% strike rate from 350 runs at Wexford is solid though the yard's A/E of 0.69 shows they are not overbet here, while Josh Williamson's 3% from 31 rides at the track is modest. First-time headgear is now added to a horse with only seven career runs so the going remains an unknown. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well placed to pounce if the race unfolds as expected in this steadily-run affair. His KTB Fit of 60 makes him a major player.
Jabbar KTB Fit 58/100
Jabbar is a high-class performer on his day with a solid recent record that includes a win at this trip. He has shown up well around here before and handles good ground. The trainer's modest strike-rate at Wexford is a negative but the jockey has a fair record at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is set to be a tactical contest. With a KTB Fit of 58 he remains firmly in the mix.
Splashing Out KTB Fit 55/100
Splashing Out is a smart performer who has won at this trip and shown he handles good ground. Has been below his best on all four previous visits to Wexford and now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer has a solid record here while the 7 lb claimer is less proven at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should find this steadily-run race to his liking if the new headgear helps him rediscover his best. His KTB Fit of 55 keeps him in the conversation.
The rest of the field
Ma Belle EtoileKTB Fit 55/100
Ma Belle Etoile is a smart mare who has won over hurdles here and looks well treated on her best form. Steps up in trip today having last run over 1m6f and has only tried this distance once before without success. First-time headgear is another new factor. Usually held up, she has a KTB Fit of 55.
WonderfulwonderfulKTB Fit 54/100
Wonderfulwonderful is a smart performer who has won at this trip and holds a solid record on good ground with a win and three places from six runs. First time headgear is now tried after a poor run last time but the yard has a respectable 12% strike rate at Wexford from 113 runs. Jockey is operating at a 9% strike rate here from 45 rides. He has a KTB Fit of 54.
Now So JakeKTB Fit 51/100
Now So Jake is a smart performer who showed useful form when winning twice last year. Drops back in trip today having last run over 2m4½f and that distance change is an unknown. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Wexford is a negative while the jockey has a solid record here. His KTB Fit stands at 51.
TassaroloKTB Fit 50/100
Tassarolo is a smart performer who arrives in solid form having won twice and placed once from his last five starts. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance in the past while his placed efforts on good ground show he handles the surface. First-time headgear is now applied and both trainer and jockey have modest records at Wexford. He has a KTB Fit of 50.
KTB verdict
Shaboozee is the KTB Selection. A smart performer in solid recent form, he has already shown he can win on good ground and at this trip, with Joseph Patrick O'Brien boasting a strong 21% strike rate at Wexford. Usually held up, he should be ideally placed to strike in a steadily-run, tactical race where being handy pays. His main dangers are Mode Avion, who brings high-class form and first-time headgear, and Jabbar, who has shown up well around here before and handles the ground.
KTB Selection Shaboozee
This is the narrative read of the 5:51 Wexford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wexford racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How many of the runners have course form at Wexford?
Three runners have course form: Jabbar has a fourth from one visit, Splashing Out has four previous runs without placing, and Ma Belle Etoile has won from two starts here.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Mode Avion, Splashing Out, Ma Belle Etoile, Wonderfulwonderful and Tassarolo are all wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Wexford among the principals?
Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 21% strike rate at Wexford from 99 runs for Shaboozee.
Which horse is stepping up in trip from a recent run over 1m6f?
Ma Belle Etoile is stepping up in trip today having last run over 1m6f.
How many runners are rated as usually held up?
Seven of the eight runners are usually held up: Shaboozee, Jabbar, Splashing Out, Ma Belle Etoile, Wonderfulwonderful, Now So Jake and Tassarolo.
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