5:52 Chepstow
This Class 5 EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes over 6f at Chepstow features a field of ten two-year-olds with relatively limited experience between them. The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style evidence across the runners to form a firm view of how the race will unfold. KTB's Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the principals all rated in the low-to-mid 50s, underlining the modest level of the contest and the scope for improvement from lightly raced types.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated unclear and confidence low, it is difficult to predict how the race will be run with any precision. Several runners have shown early speed or placed in sprints, yet the lack of consistent run-style data leaves the key question as whether the race develops into a test of speed or if stamina becomes a factor over the stiff 6f. The draw may also play a part on good to firm ground, with low-drawn runners potentially able to secure a favourable position if the pace is not strong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Forest Berry KTB Selection59/100Modest performer who has shown some ability in three starts, finishing second over this trip and distance at this track last time.
- 2Temple Court51/100Temple Court has shown steady progression in three runs, finishing a fair third over 7f here last time after two lesser efforts.
- 3Evangeline Adams50/100Evangeline Adams is a newcomer from a yard that has a solid 12% strike rate at Chepstow from a large sample.
- 4Dissenter50/100Dissenter showed some promise when fifth on debut over 5.5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time.
- 5Zonneveld46/100Zonneveld is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background.
- 6Defiant Dream46/100Defiant Dream showed minor promise when second on debut over 5f but failed to build on it last time.
- 7Napps Way45/100Napps Way is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on.
- 8Cruzcampo Cai43/100Cruzcampo Cai is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 9Bossy Angel43/100Bossy Angel has shown very little in three starts so far, finishing ninth, eighth and fifth without suggesting she is ready to win a race of this standard.
- 10Beechwood Glory40/100Beechwood Glory showed only modest early speed when finishing fifth on debut over this trip.
The contenders
Forest Berry KTB Fit 59/100
Forest Berry is a modest performer who has shown some ability across three starts, most notably when finishing second over this trip and distance at Chepstow last time. The yard maintains a 23% strike rate at the track from a sizeable sample and the jockey is operating above expectations with an 18% strike rate and A/E 1.55 from 17 rides here. Dropping in class is a positive and, with only three runs on the board, there remains scope for further progress. The colt is unproven on good to firm but his placed effort on this course suggests the conditions should be within range. From draw 2 he is well positioned to take advantage of any pace that materialises.
Temple Court KTB Fit 51/100
Temple Court has shown steady progression in three runs, culminating in a fair third over 7f here last time after two lesser efforts. He now drops back to 6f, which poses a fresh question, and the small sample of form makes it hard to be certain about his exact level. The trainer holds a solid 19% strike rate at Chepstow from 222 runs while the jockey's 13% strike rate from 234 rides at the track is respectable. With form figures of 043 he arrives in reasonable order and the drop in class may help him find the required improvement. His placed effort on the course last time adds a layer of encouragement.
Evangeline Adams KTB Fit 50/100
Evangeline Adams makes her debut from a yard with a solid 12% strike rate at Chepstow from a large sample of 239 runs. The jockey is operating even better at the venue with a 16% strike rate and A/E 1.24 from 56 rides. As a newcomer by Perfect Power, whose progeny have an 8% win rate overall, pedigree and sales background will carry most of the weight given the low data confidence on this first start. She has no course win on record and the race looks likely to provide valuable experience. From draw 8 she will need to show natural ability to feature.
Dissenter KTB Fit 50/100
Dissenter showed some promise when fifth on debut over 5.5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time, a move that asks a fresh question of this lightly raced colt. The trainer has a solid 19% strike rate at Chepstow from 88 runs and the claiming jockey adds a 16% record from 19 rides at the track. With form figures of 5 he remains open to improvement and the yard's local record offers encouragement. He is unproven on good to firm but his debut effort suggests the surface should not be an issue. Draw 6 looks fair in a race where pace is hard to gauge.
Zonneveld KTB Fit 46/100
Zonneveld is a newcomer with no racecourse experience, so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background. By Showcasing, whose progeny have a 10% overall win rate from a huge sample, he represents a yard with a modest 7% strike rate at Chepstow from 313 runs. The jockey, however, holds a solid 16% strike rate at the track from 63 rides. From the inside draw he could potentially secure a prominent position if the pace is not strong. With a KTB Fit Score of 46 this looks a tough ask on debut but the jockey's record here is a point in his favour.
The rest of the field
Defiant DreamKTB Fit 46/100
Defiant Dream showed minor promise when second on debut over 5f but failed to build on it last time. He steps up to 6f which asks a fresh question, while the yard's modest 7% strike rate at Chepstow from a large sample offers little encouragement and the jockey's 6% record at the track is equally limited. With only two runs on the board this remains very much a watching brief.
Napps WayKTB Fit 45/100
Napps Way is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on. The yard's modest 7% strike-rate at Chepstow from a big sample suggests limited expectations for debut runners here. Pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment given the low data confidence.
Cruzcampo CaiKTB Fit 43/100
Cruzcampo Cai is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The sales and pedigree background offers the only real clues to his ability. Trainer Max Young has an 8% strike rate from 12 runs here while Kieran O'Neill sits on a 9% strike rate from 191 rides at the track.
Bossy AngelKTB Fit 43/100
Bossy Angel has shown very little in three starts so far, finishing ninth, eighth and fifth without suggesting she is ready to win a race of this standard. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Chepstow from a big sample while George Wood's 9% record from 54 rides here is respectable but nothing special. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she remains a low-confidence profile.
Beechwood GloryKTB Fit 40/100
Beechwood Glory showed only modest early speed when finishing fifth on debut over this trip. The yard has a poor record at Chepstow and this looks another tough ask from a wide draw. Jockey William Carson has a solid if unspectacular record at the track.
KTB verdict
Forest Berry is named as the KTB Selection. He has already shown some ability with a second over course and distance last time, is lightly raced with only three runs, and benefits from a yard with a strong 23% strike rate at Chepstow together with a jockey operating above expectations at the track. The drop in class further strengthens his claims and from a low draw he is well placed to capitalise on any pace that develops. The main dangers are Temple Court, who has shown steady progression and was a fair third here last time, and the debutant Evangeline Adams, whose trainer and jockey both hold above-average records at the venue.
KTB Selection Forest Berry
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Berry | 5/2 | Bet365 |
| Temple Court | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Evangeline Adams | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Dissenter | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Zonneveld | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Defiant Dream | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Napps Way | 50/1 | 7Bet |
| Cruzcampo Cai | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Bossy Angel | 5/1 | LiveScore Bet |
| Beechwood Glory | 15/2 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 5:52 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course and distance experience at Chepstow?
Forest Berry finished second over this trip and distance at this track last time.
What is the strongest trainer strike rate at Chepstow among the principals?
Sir Mark Prescott has a 23% strike rate at Chepstow from 163 runs.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Forest Berry, Temple Court, Bossy Angel and Dissenter are all dropping in class.
Who has the best jockey record at Chepstow among the principals?
Dylan Hogan has an 18% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.55 from 17 rides.
Which horse is held up in running?
Bossy Angel is usually held up and produces her effort late.
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