5:52 Lingfield (AW)
This Class 6 handicap division at Lingfield over 6f1y on standard going brings together a field of ten limited performers where the KTB Fit ratings sit in a relatively narrow band from 60 down to 37. The race features several first-time headgear applications and a notable drop in class for one contender, yet overall the form lacks real depth. With the KTB numbers highlighting modest ability across the board, the contest looks likely to be decided by which horse can best capitalise on the pace setup and any spark from new headgear.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting Dashing Donkey will have the chance to dictate an uncontested lead from his favourable draw. Most of the field, including the selection Big Bard, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late off what should be an even gallop. The key question is whether any closer can reel in a clear front-runner on this surface, or whether the uncontested lead will prove difficult to overcome in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Big Bard KTB Selection60/100Limited performer who has won at this trip and on this track from 13 runs here.
- 2Diamond Dreamer56/100Modest performer who has won twice here from 14 runs and also has three wins from 21 starts at this trip.
- 3Dashing Donkey50/100Limited performer who has never won a race and has shown only modest form on his three visits to Lingfield.
- 4Express Train47/100Modest performer who has shown some spark on this track, finishing third here on his penultimate start.
- 5Balon d'Or46/100Limited performer who has been a regular at this track without ever winning.
- 6Alashos46/100Limited performer who has won once over this trip and once at Lingfield.
- 7Peregrine Falcon45/100Limited performer who has shown some consistency without winning in 16 starts this year.
- 8Due Date44/100Limited performer who has shown little spark for a while and ran no sort of race when seventh of eight at Kempton last time.
- 9Happier43/100Limited performer who has shown bits of ability on this track, finishing second here on his most recent visit.
- 10Porfin37/100Porfin is a limited handicapper who has been running to form without winning lately and holds a solid course record with two victories from 11 starts at Lingfie…
The contenders
Big Bard KTB Fit 60/100
Big Bard is an eight-year-old with a modest strike-rate yet he has won at this trip and on this track from 13 runs here. His recent form has been modest but he now tries first-time headgear in a race where the KTB Fit Score marks him top on 60. The Gary and Josh Moore yard posts an 11% strike rate at Lingfield on the all-weather with an A/E of 0.94 from 143 runs, while Jude Fernandes rides at a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.51 from 22 rides. He has recorded two wins from 19 starts on standard ground and three placed efforts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be coming from off the pace in a race with a clear leader.
Diamond Dreamer KTB Fit 56/100
Diamond Dreamer arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 56 and is dropping in class. A modest performer, he has won twice at Lingfield from 14 runs and holds three wins from 21 starts at this trip. He has been consistent enough on this surface with four wins from 23 runs on standard going, although recent efforts have been poor. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard's modest record at the track offers no real encouragement. Patrick Chamings holds a 10% strike rate at Lingfield on the all-weather with an A/E of 0.88 from 542 runs, and David Probert rides at 13% with an A/E of 0.96 from 1644 rides. Usually held up, he will be another looking to close late.
Dashing Donkey KTB Fit 50/100
Dashing Donkey is the one who shapes to make the running in a race with a lone-leader pace map. A limited performer who has never won a race, he has shown only modest form on his three visits to Lingfield with figures of fourth, fourth and eighth. He drops back to an untried 6f today which asks a fresh question, while his placed efforts on standard ground from two of ten starts suggest he can be competitive without threatening to win. William Stone has a solid 12% strike rate at Lingfield on the all-weather with an A/E of 1.03 from 179 runs and Jack Mitchell rides at 17% with an A/E of 1 from 808 rides. His front-running style could be ideally suited to the shape.
Express Train KTB Fit 47/100
Express Train is a modest performer who has shown some spark on this track, finishing third here on his penultimate start. He has won over today's trip but his recent form has been poor. The yard's record at Lingfield is weak at 3% strike rate with an A/E of 0.4 from 95 runs, and Jonny Peate operates at a modest 6% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.67 from 52 rides. He has placed once from five starts on standard ground. Usually held up, he will need to find improvement from off the pace if he is to capitalise on that previous course effort.
Balon d'Or KTB Fit 46/100
Balon d'Or is another limited performer who has been a regular at this track without ever winning from ten starts. He has shown bits of form here but looks held by the best of these on recent runs and has failed to place in 12 starts on standard going. First-time headgear is now tried as he bids to improve. Simon Dow has a 10% strike rate at Lingfield on the all-weather with an A/E of 0.85 from 2302 runs, and Paddy Bradley rides at 11% with an A/E of 0.91 from 549 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be another coming from the rear.
The rest of the field
AlashosKTB Fit 46/100
Alashos is a limited performer who has won once over this trip and once at Lingfield from six starts here. Recent form has been patchy with a win and a fourth from his last six starts but he now tries first-time headgear. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate here from 119 runs is a concern.
Peregrine FalconKTB Fit 45/100
Peregrine Falcon is a limited performer who has shown some consistency without winning in 16 starts this year. He has been placed on standard ground and at today's trip but steps up from 5f now while carrying a 3lb claimer who has a poor 3% strike rate at the track. His sole visit to Lingfield produced only a modest third.
Due DateKTB Fit 44/100
Due Date is a limited performer who has shown little spark for a while and ran no sort of race when seventh of eight at Kempton last time. He has placed on three of his five starts here and has won nine times at today's trip so the track and distance are not a problem. First-time headgear is now reached for.
HappierKTB Fit 43/100
Happier is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability on this track, finishing second here on his most recent visit. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before though his overall strike-rate is modest and he is 0-24 at this distance. The trainer has a modest 6% strike-rate at Lingfield and the jockey is still seeking a first winner here from 12 rides.
PorfinKTB Fit 37/100
Porfin is a limited handicapper who has been running to form without winning lately and holds a solid course record with two victories from 11 starts at Lingfield. He has won at this trip and on standard ground though his overall strike rate is modest on both. First-time headgear is now applied.
KTB verdict
Big Bard is the KTB Selection. He has won at this trip and on this track, and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition for an eight-year-old who has been modest of late yet tops the KTB Fit ratings. The pace shape should allow the held-up types to launch late challenges, and his trainer and jockey both have respectable enough records at Lingfield without setting the place alight. The main dangers are likely to come from Diamond Dreamer, who drops in class and has a good course record, and Dashing Donkey, who can take the race by the scruff from the front.
KTB Selection Big Bard
This is the narrative read of the 5:52 Lingfield (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Lingfield (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Dashing Donkey, whose front-running style and the lone-leader pace shape with high confidence point to him dictating from draw 4.
How many runners are trying first-time headgear?
Five: Big Bard, Diamond Dreamer, Balon d'Or, Alashos and Due Date, with Porfin also in first-time headgear.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Diamond Dreamer.
Who has the strongest course record at Lingfield among the principals?
Big Bard has won here from 13 runs, while Diamond Dreamer has won twice from 14 runs.
What is the KTB Fit Score of the selection?
60.
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