5:54 Kempton (AW)
This Class 4 Unibet/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes over a mile at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together a field of twelve two-year-olds, several of whom are making their first or second appearances. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, reflecting the general lack of experience and the number of unproven runners stepping up in trip, with the top-rated horse sitting at just 56. Most of the principals have shown only modest form at best so far or arrive as complete unknowns, making this a low-confidence contest where pedigree, trainer course record and the step up to a mile will be key factors.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with only thin evidence for a clear front-runner. Huwa Baree is the one horse with a tendency to make the running or race prominently, though that evidence is limited. Most of the principals and field runners are held-up types who produce their effort late, suggesting the race could develop into a sprint for the line in the straight. The key question is whether the early pace will be sufficient to set up a test or if the race will be slowly run, potentially favouring those with a bit of toe from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Tarn Hows KTB Selection56/100
Tarn Hows is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on. The assessment therefore rests entirely on his sales and pedigree background. The Daniel and Claire Kubler yard brings a solid 16% strike rate at Kempton from 132 runs and a trainer and jockey record of 3/21. Ebrahim Nader has a striking 50% strike rate at the track from just two rides. By Stradivarius, he has a 0% overall win rate on his sire's progeny but the yard's local record offers encouragement in what remains a low-confidence debut.
-
2Celtic Storm51/100
Celtic Storm showed only modest form when fifth on debut over 7f here. He now steps up to an untested 1m which asks a fresh question. The Richard Hughes yard has a solid 13% strike-rate at Kempton from 642 runs, and the trainer and jockey record stands at 11/69. Billy Loughnane has a 15% strike rate at the track from 421 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late on the limited evidence available, he remains a low-confidence read after just one run and is unproven on standard to slow ground.
-
3Kiril48/100
Kiril showed little on his 7f debut here when finishing eighth of nine. He now steps up to an untested 1m which asks a fresh question of this lightly-raced colt. Trainer Patrick Owens has a modest 4% strike-rate from 26 runs at Kempton while jockey Mason Paetel, who claims 3lb, is making his first appearance at the track with a 14% strike rate from 29 rides there. Usually held up and producing his effort late on limited evidence, he is unproven on standard to slow ground and the overall picture is one of low confidence.
-
4Lunar Blossom48/100
Lunar Blossom has shown only modest form in two starts to date, finishing fourth on her latest 7f outing. She now steps up to an untried 1m, which asks a fresh question of her. Trainer William Knight has an 11% strike rate from 713 runs at Kempton while the trainer and jockey record with Marco Ghiani is 17/155. Usually held up and producing her effort late with medium confidence in that assessment, she remains unproven on standard to slow ground and the data confidence stays low given the small sample of runs.
-
5Phantom Knight46/100
Phantom Knight showed little on his sole start so far, finishing eighth. The Andrew Balding yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Kempton from a huge sample of 1811 runs and the trainer and jockey record stands at 6/79. Daniel Muscutt has a 12% strike rate at the track from 1082 rides. With only one run on record the trip and ground remain untested questions and the overall assessment carries low confidence.
-
6Shorien46/100
Shorien is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a steady 14% strike rate here from a large sample. The Archie Watson stable knows its way around Kempton but this is still very much an unknown quantity on debut and the assessment carries low data confidence.
-
7Peaberry45/100
Peaberry showed fair promise when second on debut over 7f and backed that up with another solid run last time. The step up to 1m looks a logical move though it asks a fresh question of her. Trainer Tom Ward has a 10% strike rate from 290 runs at Kempton while jockey Sean Levey is unproven at the track and she is usually held up.
-
8Huwa Baree45/100
Huwa Baree won on debut over 7f and now steps up to a mile for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. The Charlie Johnston yard has a 12% strike rate from 269 runs at Kempton AW and he tends to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence. With just one run on the clock the overall picture remains low-confidence.
-
9Rock Show44/100
Rock Show is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment relies entirely on his pedigree and sales background. The Jonathan Portman yard's modest 6% strike-rate at Kempton from a large sample is another negative to weigh up.
-
10Arlecchino's Moon44/100
Arlecchino's Moon has shown little in two starts so far, finishing eighth on this track last time. The step up to a mile is an unknown and the Mark Usher yard's 5% strike rate from 847 runs at Kempton offers no encouragement. He is usually held up and has one run on standard to slow.
-
11Tojoannie43/100
Tojoannie showed little on debut over 7f here when finishing ninth of 11. He now steps up to a mile for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The Andrew Balding yard has a solid 15% strike-rate at Kempton from a large sample but this remains a very lightly-raced colt with little to go on.
-
12Rogue Crusader40/100
Rogue Crusader is a newcomer from a yard that has an 8% strike rate from 144 runs at Kempton. His pedigree and sales background will carry most of the weight here given the complete lack of racecourse evidence. The trainer's modest course record adds a note of caution.
KTB verdict
Tarn Hows is the KTB Selection. As a newcomer, his case rests on pedigree, sales profile and the trainer's solid 16% strike rate at Kempton from 132 runs, allied to Ebrahim Nader's excellent record at the venue. The Kubler yard's local form gives him the edge in a race where most of the opposition have shown only modest form or arrive as unknowns. The main dangers are likely to be Huwa Baree, who has already won a 7f novice, and Peaberry, who has shown the most promise among those with experience. Celtic Storm, Kiril and Lunar Blossom are next in the KTB Fit order but all carry significant question marks over the longer trip and their level of ability to date.
KTB Selection Tarn Hows
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 4 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Tarn Hows | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Celtic Storm | 4/1 | Virgin Bet |
| Kiril | 60/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Lunar Blossom | 16/1 | Bet Victor |
| Phantom Knight | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Shorien | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Peaberry | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| Huwa Baree | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Rock Show | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Arlecchino's Moon | 100/1 | 7Bet |
| Tojoannie | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Rogue Crusader | 2/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 5:54 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip having won on debut?
Huwa Baree won on debut over 7f and now steps up to a mile for the first time.
How many runners have previous experience at Kempton?
Celtic Storm, Kiril, Peaberry, Arlecchino's Moon and Tojoannie have all run at the track previously.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Kempton AW among those represented?
Daniel and Claire Kubler have a 16% strike rate at Kempton from 132 runs.
Who is the only horse with a front-running run style in the field?
Huwa Baree tends to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at the track in this race?
Ebrahim Nader has a 50% strike rate at Kempton AW from two rides.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies