5:57 Ripon
A maiden fillies' stakes over 6f at Ripon on good to soft ground brings together a field of seven two-year-olds, most of whom have limited racecourse experience. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 51 and 40, reflecting the open nature of the contest and the general lack of hard data. Beauty Box heads the figures on the back of two promising runs, while several debutants add an element of unpredictability to proceedings.
How the race shapes up
The race-level pace shape suggests a fairly even distribution of run-styles with no obvious pace bias. Beauty Box and Penny Arcade are expected to race prominently, while Bint Minzaal showed modest early pace on debut and could settle midfield. The key question is whether the newcomers can find the necessary speed from the gate or if the more experienced fillies will control the early fractions and dictate matters.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Beauty Box KTB Selection51/100Beauty Box has shown fair promise in two runs, finishing fourth on debut then improving to finish second last time at this trip.
- 2Bint Minzaal48/100Bint Minzaal showed only modest early pace when finishing sixth on debut over this trip.
- 3Halcon46/100Halcon is a newcomer from the Tim Easterby yard which has a modest 10 percent strike rate at Ripon from a huge sample.
- 4Roman Crystal46/100Roman Crystal is a newcomer from the Easterby yard with very little to go on beyond pedigree and sales background.
- 5Penny Arcade45/100Penny Arcade has shown fair form in three starts over 5f with placed efforts on her last two outings.
- 6Travellers Girl44/100Travellers Girl is a newcomer with nothing on the board.
- 7Chiwara40/100Chiwara is a debutant with limited information to go on.
The contenders
Beauty Box KTB Fit 51/100
Beauty Box has shown fair promise in two runs, finishing fourth on debut then improving to finish second last time at this trip. The yard has a solid 26% strike rate at Ripon while Jason Hart brings a 14% record at the track. With only two starts on her record the sample is too small to judge either the going or her overall ability with any confidence. She drops in class here which could help her cause. Her recent form figures of 42 underline the step forward she took on her second start. From draw 7 she should be able to secure a decent early position.
Bint Minzaal KTB Fit 48/100
Bint Minzaal showed only modest early pace when finishing sixth on debut over this trip. The Kevin Ryan yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Ripon from a big sample while Tom Eaves is operating at a 5% strike rate here. With just one run on the board and limited data overall this is very much a watching brief. She drops in class which may bring some improvement. The draw in stall 1 could prove beneficial if she can overcome her tendency to be slowly away. Her overall profile remains modest at this stage.
Halcon KTB Fit 46/100
Halcon is a newcomer from the Tim Easterby yard which has a modest 10 percent strike rate at Ripon from a huge sample. The booking of Sean Kirrane is positive as he strikes at 13 percent here himself. With no racecourse form to go on the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. By Belardo, she carries a 10% overall win rate for the sire from 3775 runners. Her lack of experience makes her hard to assess with any real confidence. From draw 2 she may need to show natural speed to avoid being caught wide.
Roman Crystal KTB Fit 46/100
Roman Crystal is a newcomer from the Easterby yard with very little to go on beyond pedigree and sales background. The trainer has a modest 9% strike rate at Ripon from a decent sample of runners while Billy Garritty rides the track with a solid 16% strike rate. Data confidence is low for this debutant so any market support would need to be taken on trust. By Shaman, she is sired by a stallion with an 8% overall win rate from 426 runners. Her trainer and jockey combination offers some hope but the yard's modest course record tempers expectations. Drawn in stall 5 she could find herself in a midfield position on debut.
The rest of the field
Penny ArcadeKTB Fit 45/100
Penny Arcade has shown fair form in three starts over 5f with placed efforts on her last two outings. She now steps up to 6f for the first time which asks a fresh question of her. The Burke yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Ripon while Sullivan is operating at 7% here. She has one run on good to soft without placing.
Travellers GirlKTB Fit 44/100
Travellers Girl is a newcomer with nothing on the board. The yard’s 10% strike-rate at Ripon from a big sample is fair but nothing to shout about, while McSweeney’s 10% from 31 rides here is in line with market expectations. With low data confidence everything rests on the sales and pedigree background which has yet to be tested. By Space Traveller, who has a 0% overall win rate from 18 runners.
ChiwaraKTB Fit 40/100
Chiwara is a debutant with limited information to go on. The Richard and Peter Fahey stable has a modest 4% strike rate from 24 runs at Ripon while Barry McHugh has an ordinary 8% record from 243 rides here. Pedigree and sales background will need to carry the assessment but the yard's recent course figures suggest this is no banker on first start. By Sands Of Mali with a 12% overall win rate from 623 runners.
KTB verdict
Beauty Box is the KTB Selection and sets a clear standard on the back of two runs that have shown fair promise, most notably her second place last time over this trip. The yard's strong 26% strike rate at Ripon and the booking of Jason Hart add further layers of confidence. She is the one with the most solid evidence in a race where several rivals are either debutants or have shown only modest form. The main dangers are likely to come from Penny Arcade, who brings placed form and solid yard support even though the step up to 6f asks a new question, and the better-bred of the newcomers such as Halcon if she can translate pedigree into performance on debut.
KTB Selection Beauty Box
This is the narrative read of the 5:57 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score in the race?
Beauty Box with a KTB Fit Score of 51/100.
How many runs has Beauty Box had and what are her form figures?
Beauty Box has had two runs with recent form figures of 42.
What is the trainer strike rate at Ripon for the yard of the selection Beauty Box?
James Tate has a 26% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1.11 from 58 runs.
Which runner is stepping up in class and has placed form over 5f?
Penny Arcade, who has shown fair form in three starts over 5f with placed efforts on her last two outings.
What is the course strike rate for Sean Kirrane at Ripon?
Sean Kirrane has a 13% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.99 from 80 rides.
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