5:57 Salisbury
This Class 5 restricted novice stakes over six furlongs at Salisbury on good to firm ground brings together a field of 14 two-year-olds, several with racecourse experience and a handful of debutants. The KTB Fit scores point to a fairly open-looking heat, with top-rated Chan Noir on 62 and a cluster of principals between 48 and 49, while the remainder sit in the low forties. With two habitual front-runners in the line-up and the pace shape rated strong with high confidence, the race is expected to test stamina late on and place emphasis on those who can produce their effort from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners and several prominent runners. Chan Noir is likely to set or share the pace from draw seven, while Hello You Ten and Fillipas can also be forward. This early speed could cause the race to collapse in the final furlong, which would play into the hands of hold-up performers such as Spirit Of Lyra and Thanks Harry. The key question is which horses can handle the strong gallop and still find the necessary kick when the leaders tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Chan Noir KTB Selection62/100Showed plenty of speed to win a 6f maiden on this ground at Yarmouth on debut then found a Class 4 race too hot when well held at Newmarket last time.
- 2Pent Up Charm49/100Pent Up Charm is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 3Mr Montgomery49/100Mr Montgomery showed little on his 7f debut and now drops in trip with first-time headgear applied.
- 4Spirit Of Lyra49/100Spirit Of Lyra showed fair form when landing a similar race here on debut and backed that up with a solid fourth in a stronger event last time.
- 5Fillipas48/100Has shown some promise on debut before finishing down the field on her second start.
- 6Thanks Harry48/100Placed second on debut then improved to finish seventh in a stronger race last time.
- 7Vera Lemon46/100Vera Lemon is a debutant with low data confidence so any assessment rests on her pedigree and sales background.
- 8Kaboom44/100Kaboom showed only modest early speed when finishing sixth on debut over this trip.
- 9Storm Force Ten42/100Storm Force Ten has only one run to go on so any assessment has to be cautious.
- 10Reece's Call41/100Reece's Call is a newcomer from a yard that operates at an 8% strike rate from 867 runs at Salisbury.
- 11Christmas Is Comin41/100Christmas Is Comin is a debutant with limited public information available.
- 12Lowcountry41/100Lowcountry is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 3% strike rate from 38 runs at Salisbury.
- 13Hello You Ten41/100Hello You Ten showed fair pace when third on debut over this trip then ran to a similar level when sixth at Windsor last time.
- 14Inmyopinion41/100Inmyopinion is a debutant with first-time headgear and a low-data profile that rests mainly on pedigree and sales background.
The contenders
Chan Noir KTB Fit 62/100
Chan Noir showed plenty of speed to win a 6f maiden on this ground at Yarmouth on debut then found a Class 4 race too hot when well held at Newmarket last time. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Salisbury and the jockey is even better with a 16% record here from 62 rides. Lightly raced with only two runs in the book so read with some caution. Dropping in class looks a positive move and the colt acts on good to firm. As a front-runner he is likely to set the pace in a race where the early fractions could be strong, and he holds the highest KTB Fit rating of 62.
Pent Up Charm KTB Fit 49/100
Pent Up Charm is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard's modest 3% strike-rate at Salisbury from a large sample suggests limited encouragement from the stable. Pedigree and sales background will need to be strong to overcome the trainer's record here. By Charming Thought, whose progeny have a 9% overall win rate, the filly is hard to assess with any confidence at this stage. She sits second in the KTB Fit order on 49 but the trainer read offers little to enthuse.
Mr Montgomery KTB Fit 49/100
Mr Montgomery showed little on his 7f debut and now drops in trip with first-time headgear applied. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Salisbury from 44 runs. With just one run on his record everything else remains an unknown. The trainer and jockey combination has struck at a 24% rate from 37 runners with a positive A/E of 1.43. He is rated 49 on KTB Fit and the headgear is an interesting addition as he tackles six furlongs for the first time on good to firm ground.
Spirit Of Lyra KTB Fit 49/100
Spirit Of Lyra showed fair form when landing a similar race here on debut and backed that up with a solid fourth in a stronger event last time. The colt acts on good to firm, has already won over today's trip, and is drawn in a reasonable stall. Trainer William Knight has a modest 7% strike rate at Salisbury from 133 runs while jockey Jack Mitchell records a 12% strike rate from 166 rides at the track. Usually held up, he could be well suited by the expected strong pace. His recent form of 41 and KTB Fit of 49 mark him down as a clear contender.
Fillipas KTB Fit 48/100
Fillipas has shown some promise on debut before finishing down the field on her second start. The small sample makes it hard to be certain about her level, though the yard's modest record here adds a note of caution. Trip looks suitable enough on what she has done so far. Usually prominent, she could be involved early in what is likely to be a strongly run race. Dropping in class from her previous efforts and with a KTB Fit of 48 she is one of the more exposed principals.
The rest of the field
Thanks HarryKTB Fit 48/100
Thanks Harry was placed second on debut then improved to finish seventh in a stronger race last time. The trip clearly suits and the wide draw is not ideal on this straight track. Trainer and jockey both have modest records here with similar strike rates around 10 percent. Usually held up, he may benefit if the pace collapses late on.
Vera LemonKTB Fit 46/100
Vera Lemon is a debutant with low data confidence so any assessment rests on her pedigree and sales background. The yard has no recorded runners at Salisbury while jockey Ray Dawson has a modest 3% strike rate from 29 rides here. Connections will be hoping the filly shows enough on this good to firm ground to suggest she has a future.
KaboomKTB Fit 44/100
Kaboom showed only modest early speed when finishing sixth on debut over this trip. The Richard Hannon yard posts a 12 percent strike rate at Salisbury from a big sample. With just one run on the clock and the going sample too small to judge, this remains very much an unknown at this stage.
Storm Force TenKTB Fit 42/100
Storm Force Ten has only one run to go on so any assessment has to be cautious. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Salisbury from a big sample offers little encouragement. Dropping back from 7f to an untried 6f is a fresh question at this stage and he is unproven on good to firm.
Reece's CallKTB Fit 41/100
Reece's Call is a newcomer from a yard that operates at an 8% strike rate from 867 runs at Salisbury. The stable's record here is modest for a debutant and the low data confidence means we are largely reliant on pedigree and sales background that has not been supplied.
Christmas Is CominKTB Fit 41/100
Christmas Is Comin is a debutant with limited public information available. The yard has sent out only two runners at Salisbury so the trainer's record here is too small a sample to judge while jockey Josephine Gordon operates at a 7% strike rate from 73 rides at the track.
LowcountryKTB Fit 41/100
Lowcountry is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 3% strike rate from 38 runs at Salisbury. The colt cost 40,000 guineas as a yearling and is by Blue Point out of a mare who produced several winners including Group 3 scorer Aclaim. Connections are capable but this debutant has to be judged mainly on pedigree and limited track data.
Hello You TenKTB Fit 41/100
Hello You Ten showed fair pace when third on debut over this trip then ran to a similar level when sixth at Windsor last time. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Salisbury suggests this is no easy task, while William Carver's 10% record from 39 rides here is a touch better but still nothing to shout about. Usually a front-runner, he could be involved in the early battle.
InmyopinionKTB Fit 41/100
Inmyopinion is a debutant with first-time headgear and a low-data profile that rests mainly on pedigree and sales background. The Perrett yard has a solid 10% strike-rate at Salisbury from a big sample while Currie's own record at the track is a modest 5% from 63 rides. Stall one could be an advantage on good-to-firm ground but this remains guesswork until the horse is seen.
KTB verdict
Chan Noir stands out as the KTB Selection. He showed clear speed to win on debut at Yarmouth on good to firm and, although out of his depth in a stronger race last time, he drops back into a more suitable grade with only two runs behind him. The yard and jockey both have above-average records at Salisbury and his front-running style could see him set a pace that may prove too strong for some of his rivals. The main dangers are Spirit Of Lyra, who has already won a similar event here and should relish the strong gallop from off the pace, and the lightly raced Mr Montgomery who tries headgear and a drop in trip.
KTB Selection Chan Noir
This is the narrative read of the 5:57 Salisbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Salisbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Chan Noir tends to make the running or race on the pace, while Hello You Ten is also a front-runner and Fillipas usually races prominently.
How does the expected pace shape affect hold-up horses?
The strong pace is likely to collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses such as Spirit Of Lyra and Thanks Harry.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Salisbury among those with principals?
Ollie Sangster has a 14% strike rate at Salisbury from 44 runs for Mr Montgomery.
Which jockey has performed best at the track in this field?
Isobelle Chalmers has a 25% strike rate at Salisbury from 4 rides for Pent Up Charm, while Rhys Clutterbuck records 16% from 62 rides for Chan Noir.
Which horse has previous winning form over the course and distance?
Spirit Of Lyra showed fair form when landing a similar race here on debut and has already won over today's trip.
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