6:05 Southwell (AW)
A competitive Class 5 handicap over 6f at Southwell on standard going brings together a field of 14 where several runners arrive with recent placed form but few boast a recent winning record. The KTB Fit scores highlight a clear top two, headed by Liosa on 70 with Monsieur Kodi not far behind on 66, while the remainder sit in the low-to-mid 50s or below. With no obvious front-runner in a race that lacks established pace, the contest is set to be tactical and steadily-run, placing emphasis on being well positioned early.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any natural leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy from the gate is likely to pay dividends. Several runners, including the selection, tend to race prominently or in midfield, while a clutch of others are confirmed hold-up types who will need the race to fall right. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the closers will find enough room to mount a challenge in what could become a sprint off a slow early gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Liosa KTB Selection70/100Liosa is a fair handicapper with a solid record at this trip, recording five wins from 20 starts, and she acts well on the standard surface with two wins and fi…
- 2Monsieur Kodi66/100Monsieur Kodi is a fair performer who has won six times at this trip and handles the standard surface well enough with two wins and eight places from 15 starts.
- 3Beyond Borders60/100Modest performer who has won three times on standard going from just five starts and also has a win at this trip.
- 4Irish Nectar57/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 5Bright56/100Bright is a fair performer on his best days with a solid record on standard ground that includes four wins from 15 starts.
- 6Fifty Nifty55/100Modest performer with a recent string of ordinary efforts and no win in 17 starts.
- 7Secret Guest54/100Secret Guest is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at Southwell, including a second and a third from five runs here.
- 8D Flawless54/100Modest performer who has shown bits of ability on this track, finishing third here on his only visit.
- 9Hierarchy52/100Modest performer who has won twice at Southwell from eight runs and holds a solid 3-19 record on standard ground.
- 10Belsito52/100Belsito is a fair performer who has run well at Southwell on his last two visits, finishing second and fourth.
- 11Modern Times48/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning.
- 12Not Me45/100Modest performer who has shown bits of form on this track, finishing fourth and fifth in two runs here without placing.
- 13Pickersgill44/100Modest performer who has run creditably on his last two visits to Southwell, winning one of them.
- 14Cairdeas39/100Modest performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing second in two of his last three starts.
The contenders
Liosa KTB Fit 70/100
Liosa is a fair handicapper with a solid record at this trip, recording five wins from 20 starts. She acts well on the standard surface with two wins and five places from eight runs and has already won once from three starts at Southwell. She arrives in decent form having placed on her last two outings. The jockey has a strong 22% strike rate here from 216 rides while the trainer's record at the track is unproven. From draw 9 she should be able to secure a handy position in a race where being forward is expected to count.
Monsieur Kodi KTB Fit 66/100
Monsieur Kodi is a fair performer who has won six times at this trip and handles the standard surface well enough with two wins and eight places from 15 starts. He has run only once at Southwell, finishing fifth, while the yard posts a solid 25% strike rate here from a smallish sample. First-time headgear is now fitted on a horse whose recent form has been a bit up and down. Drawn in stall 5 he is well placed to track the early pace in what is set to be a steadily-run race.
Beyond Borders KTB Fit 60/100
Beyond Borders is a modest performer who has won three times on standard going from just five starts and also has a win at this trip. Only one previous run at Southwell saw him finish tenth and he has been mixing his form lately. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at the track with above-average A/E figures. From the inside draw he is ideally placed to be prominent early in a race where that should be an advantage.
Irish Nectar KTB Fit 57/100
Irish Nectar is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won at before though the first-time headgear is now reached for after 30 runs. Trainer and jockey both hold a solid 13% strike rate at Southwell. Drawn in stall 12 he will need to overcome a wide berth in a tactical contest.
Bright KTB Fit 56/100
Bright is a fair performer on his best days with a solid record on standard ground that includes four wins from 15 starts. He has won at this trip and arrives in a race that looks within his compass on ratings, yet his recent form has been modest with three poor efforts after a win. The yard and jockey both have established records at Southwell though neither figure stands out as strong. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a steadily-run affair.
The rest of the field
Fifty NiftyKTB Fit 55/100
Fifty Nifty is a modest performer with a recent string of ordinary efforts and no win in 17 starts. First run at Southwell comes with the positive of a first-time hood while Silvestre De Sousa and the trainer both have solid records at the track. Has never placed on standard going or over this trip so the race asks fresh questions.
Secret GuestKTB Fit 54/100
Secret Guest is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at Southwell, including a second and a third from five runs here. He has won at this trip and handles the standard surface, though his recent form of 058650 is patchy and he is now on his 45th career start. The trainer holds a solid 13% strike-rate at the track from a big sample while the jockey operates at 9%.
D FlawlessKTB Fit 54/100
D Flawless is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on this track, finishing third here on his only visit. He has won on standard ground and at this trip, though his recent form has been patchy. First-time headgear is now tried while the trainer's modest strike-rate at Southwell is offset by the jockey's solid record at the venue. Usually held up, he will need the race to develop in his favour.
HierarchyKTB Fit 52/100
Hierarchy is a modest performer who has won twice at Southwell from eight runs and holds a solid 3-19 record on standard ground. He has also won at this trip though recent form has been patchy and he now tries headgear for the first time from a wide draw. Trainer and jockey both have established records at the track with similar modest strike rates.
BelsitoKTB Fit 52/100
Belsito is a fair performer who has run well at Southwell on his last two visits, finishing second and fourth. He has won four times at this trip and is competitive on standard going, though he has yet to score on this surface. First-time headgear is now applied and the trainer's solid 14% strike-rate at the track gives some encouragement.
Modern TimesKTB Fit 48/100
Modern Times is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. Has run twice at Southwell for a fourth but no win or place, and drops back to 6f today where he has won once from seven attempts. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard's 17% strike rate at the track offers some encouragement.
Not MeKTB Fit 45/100
Not Me is a modest performer who has shown bits of form on this track, finishing fourth and fifth in two runs here without placing. Recent form of 55014 includes a win but also plenty of lesser efforts, and he is now drawn wide in stall 14. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Southwell, with respective strike rates of 8% and 10%. Usually held up, he will be coming from the rear.
PickersgillKTB Fit 44/100
Pickersgill is a modest performer who has run creditably on his last two visits to Southwell, winning one of them. Drops back to 6f having looked stretched by 7f last time, a trip at which he has already shown he can win. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at the track.
CairdeasKTB Fit 39/100
Cairdeas is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing second in two of his last three starts. He has only run twice on standard going without placing and is now making his first appearance at Southwell. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate here from 656 runs while the jockey is on 9% from 496 rides.
KTB verdict
Liosa stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair handicapper with a strong record at the trip and on the surface, she has already won at Southwell and arrives in decent form having placed on her last two starts. The booking of Hector Crouch, who boasts a 22% strike rate at the track, further strengthens the case in a race where her prominent run-style should be an asset. Main dangers include Monsieur Kodi, who receives first-time headgear and has the yard's solid Southwell record behind him, and Beyond Borders, who is well drawn and has a good record on standard going.
KTB Selection Liosa
This is the narrative read of the 6:05 Southwell (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Southwell (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Southwell?
Liosa has won once from three starts at Southwell. Hierarchy has won twice from eight runs here while Pickersgill has won one of two visits.
How many of the field are wearing headgear for the first time?
Monsieur Kodi, Irish Nectar, Fifty Nifty, D Flawless, Hierarchy, Belsito and Modern Times are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which runners are noted as usually held up?
Bright, D Flawless and Not Me are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horse has the best recent form figures among the principals?
Liosa has the best recent form figures among the principals with 0-4613, including two placed efforts on her last two outings.
Who has the highest trainer strike rate at Southwell among those listed?
The trainer of Modern Times has a 17% strike rate at Southwell from 217 runs while the trainer of Monsieur Kodi has a 25% strike rate from 12 runs.
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