6:10 Ballinrobe
The 6:10 at Ballinrobe is a 1m1f135y handicap for three-year-olds on good ground, featuring a field of 13 modest performers where the KTB numbers point to a race with limited depth. Private Larry stands out with a Fit score of 70, well clear of the remainder, while the rest of the principals cluster between 55 and 48. With no course form on record for the majority and several first-time headgear applications, the contest looks open on paper but the KTB assessment highlights one clear candidate.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with medium confidence and only thin evidence of a front-runner. Both Mare Crisium and Werifesteria tend to race prominently on limited evidence, which could see them disputing the early lead from their respective draws. The key question is whether any of the hold-up performers, such as Music And Song and Six Wings, can make an impact if the pace is not strong, or whether the race will be decided from a more forward position given the modest quality on show.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Private Larry KTB Selection70/100Modest performer who showed improved form when winning a 1m2f handicap at Gowran last month but then ran no sort of race when stepped up markedly in trip at Kil…
- 2Mare Crisium55/100Modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date with form figures of 6859.
- 3Werifesteria51/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date and now tries headgear for the first time.
- 4Curious Jane49/100Limited filly who has shown very little in four starts to date.
- 5Nephin Mountain48/100Limited sort who has failed to place in ten starts and showed little spark when fifth of six last time over much further.
- 6John La Bear47/100Modest performer who showed his best when winning a 1m maiden at Dundalk last winter before a lacklustre return over 1m at Leopardstown.
- 7Coolshine47/100Modest performer who has finished last on all three starts to date including a remote ninth at this track last time.
- 8Spring Sprinter46/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing seventh of 12 on debut and then well held in two handicaps.
- 9Divine Believer45/100Modest performer who has failed to land a blow in five starts and looks up against it again from a yard with a modest record here.
- 10Aquilla Star44/100Modest performer who has shown little in five runs to date and was well held when seventh on return at Gowran last month.
- 11Connova38/100Connova has shown little in three starts on the Flat but has improved since switching to hurdles and was a clear third over C&D on return to the Flat last time.
- 12Music And Song34/100Limited performer who has shown very little in seven starts and was well held when fourth over course and distance last time.
- 13Six Wings32/100Limited performer who has struggled in six starts to date and looks up against it from stall 12.
The contenders
Private Larry KTB Fit 70/100
Private Larry is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning a 1m2f handicap at Gowran last month but then ran no sort of race when stepped up markedly in trip at Killarney. He drops back to 1m1f today which looks more suitable on the balance of his form though he has been beaten twice at the distance already. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard have a strong record here. The trainer boasts a 40% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 4.5 from five runs while the jockey has a 20% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.53 from 20 rides. He has a solid record on good ground with one win from two starts and two places. Drawn in stall 13, he remains the KTB selection.
Mare Crisium KTB Fit 55/100
Mare Crisium is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date with form figures of 6859. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 84 runs at Ballinrobe but this jockey has only had two rides at the track so far with a 50% strike rate and A/E of 1.97. The trip looks a fresh question having failed to trouble the judge on his one attempt at it. He tends to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence. With one run on good ground yielding no win or place, he has plenty to find on these terms.
Werifesteria KTB Fit 51/100
Werifesteria is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date and now tries headgear for the first time. Dropping back from 1m4½f to an untried 1m1f poses a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 10 is another negative. The trainer has a 16% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.86 from 250 runs and the jockey has a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.93 from 168 rides. He has two runs on good ground with no win or place. Overall he still has plenty to prove.
Curious Jane KTB Fit 49/100
Curious Jane is a limited filly who has shown very little in four starts to date with form figures of 0-009. First-time headgear is now applied and she steps up in trip as a fresh question. The trainer has a 7% strike rate from 44 runs at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.92 while the jockey has a 10% strike rate from 29 rides with an A/E of 1.69. She has no runs on good ground and remains unproven on the surface. From stall 8 she faces a stiff task.
Nephin Mountain KTB Fit 48/100
Nephin Mountain is a limited sort who has failed to place in ten starts and showed little spark when fifth of six last time over much further. He drops back sharply in trip today which asks a fresh question while his record on good ground remains modest with no win or place from five runs. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate here from 53 runs with an A/E of 1.29 but the jockey has no recorded rides at the track. Drawn in stall 1 he could be well placed if the race shape allows.
The rest of the field
John La BearKTB Fit 47/100
John La Bear is a modest performer who showed his best when winning a 1m maiden at Dundalk last winter before a lacklustre return over 1m at Leopardstown. He steps up in trip today while wearing first-time headgear and that combination asks a fresh question. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 61 runs here with an A/E of 0.65 while the jockey is 6% from 18 rides with an A/E of 0.75. He has four runs on good ground with no win or place.
CoolshineKTB Fit 47/100
Coolshine is a modest performer who has finished last on all three starts to date including a remote ninth at this track last time. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate here from 23 runs with an A/E of 0.74 while the jockey is operating at 5% from 184 rides with an A/E of 0.64. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of this lightly raced sort. He has two runs on good ground with no win or place.
Spring SprinterKTB Fit 46/100
Spring Sprinter is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing seventh of 12 on debut and then well held in two handicaps. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 7½f, which asks a fresh question of one who is still lightly raced. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Ballinrobe with 11% and 10% strike rates respectively. He has one run on good ground with no win or place.
Divine BelieverKTB Fit 45/100
Divine Believer is a modest performer who has failed to land a blow in five starts and looks up against it again from a yard with a modest record here. Dropping back in trip to an untried 1m1f poses a fresh question. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.62 from 134 runs while the jockey has a 7% strike rate with an A/E of 0.36 from 98 rides. He has one run on good ground with no win or place.
Aquilla StarKTB Fit 44/100
Aquilla Star is a modest performer who has shown little in five runs to date and was well held when seventh on return at Gowran last month. He drops back in trip here to a distance he has never tried which asks a fresh question. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 132 runs at the track with an A/E of 0.87 while the jockey is still seeking a first Ballinrobe winner from 17 rides with an A/E of 0. He has no runs on good ground and remains unproven on the surface.
ConnovaKTB Fit 38/100
Connova has shown little in three starts on the Flat but has improved since switching to hurdles and was a clear third over C&D on return to the Flat last time. That run suggests he is at least as good as his limited rating and the placed effort at this trip adds some encouragement. The yard has a modest 4% strike-rate here from 26 runners with an A/E of 0.41 while Chris Hayes is 8% from 232 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.78. He has no runs on good ground and remains unproven on the surface.
Music And SongKTB Fit 34/100
Music And Song is a limited performer who has shown very little in seven starts and was well held when fourth over course and distance last time. First-time headgear is now applied in hope of a spark but the recent form figures offer little encouragement. The trainer has had only three runners at the track so far with a 0% strike rate. He usually races held up and produces his effort late on limited evidence.
Six WingsKTB Fit 32/100
Six Wings is a limited performer who has struggled in six starts to date and looks up against it from stall 12. First-time headgear is tried as the yard has a modest record here with an 8% strike rate from 128 runs and an A/E of 0.82 while the 3lb claimer is operating at a low strike rate with 5% from 21 rides and an A/E of 0.46. The trip is a fresh question after a string of poor efforts over shorter. He usually races held up and produces his effort late on limited evidence.
KTB verdict
Private Larry is the clear KTB selection. He showed improved form when winning a 1m2f handicap at Gowran last month, and while he ran no sort of race when stepped up markedly in trip at Killarney, the drop back to 1m1f looks more suitable on the balance of his form. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard have a strong record at Ballinrobe. His main dangers are Connova, who was a clear third over C&D last time and looks at least as good as his limited rating, and perhaps John La Bear if the step up in trip and first-time headgear bring about improvement.
KTB Selection Private Larry
This is the narrative read of the 6:10 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit score and what is it?
Private Larry has the highest KTB Fit score at 70/100.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Ballinrobe for the selection Private Larry?
The trainer Alan McIntyre has a 40% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 4.5 from 5 runs.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Three of the principals are wearing first-time headgear: Private Larry, Werifesteria and Curious Jane.
Which horse has course and distance placed form mentioned?
Connova was a clear third over C&D on return to the Flat last time and Music And Song was fourth over course and distance last time.
What is the pace shape assessment for this race?
Pace tentative with medium confidence — a possible front-runner but on thin evidence.
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