6:40 Ballinrobe
The 6.40 at Ballinrobe is a 13-runner Daily Sports Special At Tote.ie Handicap over 1m1f135y on good ground. It features a mix of modest performers, several of whom are trying first-time headgear, with recent form that is largely ordinary or patchy. The KTB Fit Scores point to a tight top end, headed by Bucaneer's Spirit on 64, with Loingseoir not far behind on 62 and a cluster on 55.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay dividends. Several runners are usually held up and produce their effort late, which could leave them with plenty to do if the race is not truly tested. The key question is whether the prominent types can dictate matters or if the closers will be able to land a blow from off the pace in what looks a race that could be won from a variety of positions.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Bucaneer's Spirit KTB Selection64/100Modest performer who won on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe and steps up in trip today having already scored over this distance.
- 2Loingseoir62/100Modest 10-year-old who has dropped to a workable mark but has not won for a long time and arrives on the back of a string of ordinary efforts.
- 3Brewel Hill55/100Brewel Hill is a limited performer who has won once from three starts at this track.
- 4Signor Ferrari55/100Modest performer with a solid record on good ground including two wins from four starts.
- 5Dancing Steve55/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of duck eggs on his recent record.
- 6Elusive Duke52/100Modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with placed efforts on his last three starts.
- 7Miss Crinshawn49/100Modest performer who has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from her last five starts.
- 8Lady Arwen48/100Modest performer who has been out of form for most of this year and was well held on her latest two starts.
- 9Metamorphic46/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in two starts this year and was well held when last seen over 1m4f.
- 10Lady Chartwell45/100Modest performer with a recent string of poor efforts including two heavy defeats this season.
- 11Nibras Rainbow44/100Limited performer who has been in and out this season and arrives off the back of a modest sixth here last time.
- 12Cuckaloo Hill35/100Limited horse who has shown only modest form in 14 starts and looks up against it from stall 10.
- 13Real Petite34/100Limited filly who has been out of form since winning a handicap at Gowran in June.
The contenders
Bucaneer's Spirit KTB Fit 64/100
Bucaneer's Spirit is a modest performer who won on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe and steps up in trip today having already scored over this distance. Recent form is ordinary yet consistent and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition. The trainer has a 10 percent strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.06 from 10 runs while the jockey has a 14 percent strike rate here with an A/E of 1.45 from 7 rides. He has 1 win from 12 starts on good ground with another 4 placed efforts. The five-year-old has a wide draw in stall 13 but his course record reads 1 from 1 and he is taken to capitalise on that familiarity.
Loingseoir KTB Fit 62/100
Loingseoir is a modest 10-year-old who has dropped to a workable mark but has not won for a long time and arrives on the back of a string of ordinary efforts. He has shown some ability at this trip in the past and has placed over course and distance, though this represents a step up in trip from his latest 7f run. First-time headgear is now fitted while the trainer's modest record at the track offers no real encouragement. The trainer and jockey combination has a 4 from 45 record here with an A/E of 1.42 and plus 18.00 LSP. He has 1 win from 6 starts on good ground with 2 placed efforts and his course record reads one placing from a single start.
Brewel Hill KTB Fit 55/100
Brewel Hill is a limited performer who has won once from three starts at this track. He drops back in trip today having last run over a mile and a half, though he has won twice from eight starts at this distance. The trainer has a solid 11 percent strike rate here from 35 runs while the jockey's 3 percent from 176 rides is poor. He has 1 win from 13 starts on good ground with 3 placed efforts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he could find himself with plenty to do if the race develops into a steadily-run affair.
Signor Ferrari KTB Fit 55/100
Signor Ferrari is a modest performer with a solid record on good ground including two wins from four starts. He steps back up to a trip he has won over previously though the wide draw in stall 12 is far from ideal on this tight track. The trainer strikes at a fair rate here with a 13 percent strike rate and A/E of 1.12 from 8 runs while the jockey's long-term record is more modest with an 8 percent strike rate and A/E of 0.78 from 232 rides. He has recent form figures of 16743- and no course form on record. The trainer and jockey combination has an 8 from 117 record with an A/E of 0.78 and minus 18.22 LSP.
Dancing Steve KTB Fit 55/100
Dancing Steve is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of duck eggs on his recent record. He drops back in trip to a distance at which he has won previously and tries headgear for the first time while the yard has a solid 10 percent strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.96 from 155 runs. The jockey has a 9 percent strike rate here with an A/E of 0.91 from 23 rides. He has 2 wins from 14 starts on good ground with 4 placed efforts but arrives with plenty to prove. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, he could be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race.
The rest of the field
Elusive DukeKTB Fit 52/100
Elusive Duke is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with placed efforts on his last three starts. He steps up in trip for the first time today having been placed without winning over this distance on his one previous attempt and first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a solid 13 percent strike rate here from 15 runs while the jockey is less prolific at the track with a 7 percent record from 98 rides.
Miss CrinshawnKTB Fit 49/100
Miss Crinshawn is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from her last five starts. She ran respectably when fourth over course and distance on her only previous visit here and handles good ground. Dropping back from 1m4f poses a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 11 is far from ideal. Usually held up and producing her effort late.
Lady ArwenKTB Fit 48/100
Lady Arwen is a modest performer who has been out of form for most of this year and was well held on her latest two starts. She has shown she can win on good ground but is 0-3 at this trip and makes her first appearance at Ballinrobe. Trainer and jockey both have modest records here.
MetamorphicKTB Fit 46/100
Metamorphic is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two starts this year and was well held when last seen over 1m4f. He drops back in trip to a distance at which he has placed once from three attempts but still lacks a win. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard and jockey both have solid records at Ballinrobe. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
Lady ChartwellKTB Fit 45/100
Lady Chartwell is a modest performer with a recent string of poor efforts including two heavy defeats this season. She has won over today's trip but is 0-7 on turf and has only placed once in three runs on good ground. Trainer has too few runs here to judge while the jockey's modest strike rate at the track adds little confidence.
Nibras RainbowKTB Fit 44/100
Nibras Rainbow is a limited performer who has been in and out this season and arrives off the back of a modest sixth here last time. He has shown bits of form on good ground but steps up in trip again today having failed to land a blow at this distance on his previous three attempts. First-time headgear is now applied. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
Cuckaloo HillKTB Fit 35/100
Cuckaloo Hill is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in 14 starts and looks up against it from stall 10. He has run respectably in both visits to Ballinrobe yet remains winless and the trainer's poor 4 percent strike rate here adds little confidence. First-time headgear is now reached for while the jockey remains without a winner from 17 rides at the track.
Real PetiteKTB Fit 34/100
Real Petite is a limited filly who has been out of form since winning a handicap at Gowran in June. She steps back up in trip today having looked stretched at this distance last time and has shown little on good ground in two previous attempts. First-time headgear is tried but the trainer's modest record here and the jockey's very small sample add little confidence.
KTB verdict
Bucaneer's Spirit looks the most solid option in a race where several have questions to answer. His course win on his only previous visit stands out, he has already scored over today's distance, and the first-time headgear could sharpen him up further. The combination of trainer and jockey both having solid strike rates at the track adds to the appeal. Main dangers are Loingseoir, who has dropped to a workable mark and has course and distance form, and Signor Ferrari, who has a good record on good ground and steps back up to a trip he has won over before.
KTB Selection Bucaneer's Spirit
This is the narrative read of the 6:40 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won on its only previous visit to Ballinrobe?
Bucaneer's Spirit, whose course record reads 1 from 1.
Who is the only runner in the field with a placed effort over course and distance?
Loingseoir, who has placed over course and distance.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Ballinrobe among those with at least 30 runs?
Mrs John Harrington with a 16 percent strike rate from 250 runs.
How many of the 13 runners are trying first-time headgear?
Seven runners are fitted with first-time headgear: Bucaneer's Spirit, Loingseoir, Dancing Steve, Elusive Duke, Metamorphic, Nibras Rainbow and Cuckaloo Hill, plus Real Petite.
Which prominent runner could be suited by the lack of an obvious leader?
Dancing Steve, who usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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