6:18 Haydock
This Class 5 amateur jockeys' handicap over 1m6f at Haydock on good ground brings together eight modest performers, several of whom are stepping up or down in trip while trying first-time headgear. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly clustered between 62 and 42, reflecting a competitive but largely unproven field at this distance and under these conditions. With strong pace anticipated, the race is likely to place a premium on stamina and the ability to come from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is expected given the presence of two habitual front-runners in Clansman and Havachoc, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. The remainder of the field, including the top three in the KTB Fit rankings, are all held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late. This shape raises the key question of whether the leaders will set a pace that collapses in the closing stages, allowing the hold-up horses to capitalise.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Caph Star KTB Selection62/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning often.
- 2Made All61/100Modest performer who has been placed on good ground and at this track without winning.
- 3Arrange60/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of three placed efforts in his last four starts.
- 4Clansman56/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year with a recent sequence of 213310.
- 5Dream Harder49/100Modest performer who showed a bit more when winning a weaker handicap last time but steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous…
- 6Fast Fred47/100Fair performer who has been inconsistent this year and ran no sort of race when ninth on his only previous visit to Haydock.
- 7Edward Sexton44/100Modest performer who has struggled this year with two poor efforts off his current mark.
- 8Havachoc42/100Limited performer who has been placed a couple of times at this trip but remains winless after 23 starts.
The contenders
Caph Star KTB Fit 62/100
Caph Star is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning often. He steps up markedly in trip today having never gone beyond 1m2f so stamina is unproven, though the first-time headgear may help him settle. The 7-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, and will hope the strong pace collapses to his advantage. Trainer Mark Rimell has a 17% strike rate at Haydock from 23 runs with an A/E of 1.44 while the jockey has no record at the track. He has one win from five starts on good ground with three placings and has no course form on record.
Made All KTB Fit 61/100
Made All is a modest performer who has been placed on good ground and at this track without winning. He drops back from 2m1f to an untried 1m6f today which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is another unknown. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited if the strong pace collapses. Trainer Sam England has a 20% strike rate at Haydock from 56 runs with an A/E of 1.31 and the jockey has no record at the track. He has been placed six times from 14 starts on good ground and has course form of 3rd, 4th and 8th from three runs here.
Arrange KTB Fit 60/100
Arrange is a modest performer with a solid recent record of three placed efforts in his last four starts. He has won over this trip and at this track, and acts on good ground with two wins from 14 starts and nine placings. Usually held up and producing his effort late, though with medium confidence in that assessment, he will be looking to benefit if the pace collapses. Trainer Martin Todhunter has a 10% strike rate at Haydock from 49 runs with an A/E of 0.95 while the jockey has a 13% strike rate at the track from eight rides with an A/E of 1. He has won once from two starts at Haydock.
Clansman KTB Fit 56/100
Clansman is a modest performer who has been in and out this year with a recent sequence of 213310. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has won at before and has shown he can be competitive on good ground with one placing from four starts. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could set the strong pace that may collapse late. This is his first run at Haydock where the trainer is 0-7 with an A/E of 0 while the jockey has a 50% strike rate at the track from four rides with an A/E of 3.18. He is dropping in class.
The rest of the field
Dream HarderKTB Fit 49/100
Dream Harder is a modest performer who showed a bit more when winning a weaker handicap last time but steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at 1m6f. First-time headgear is tried and he has run just once on good ground at Haydock, where the yard's 6% strike rate from 88 runs with an A/E of 0.68 offers little encouragement. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the jockey is making his debut at the track.
Fast FredKTB Fit 47/100
Fast Fred is a fair performer who has been inconsistent this year and ran no sort of race when ninth on his only previous visit to Haydock. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance, while the first-time headgear is an unknown. Trainer Phillip Makin has a 0% strike rate from 14 runs at the track with an A/E of 0 and the jockey has a 0% strike rate from one ride with an A/E of 0. He has one win from nine starts on good ground with four placings.
Edward SextonKTB Fit 44/100
Edward Sexton is a modest performer who has struggled this year with two poor efforts off his current mark. He steps up markedly in trip today having won at this distance in the past and he has already shown he handles good ground with one win from one start. The yard have a 0% strike rate from eight runners at Haydock with an A/E of 0 and the jockey has a 0% strike rate from three rides with an A/E of 0. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
HavachocKTB Fit 42/100
Havachoc is a limited performer who has been placed a couple of times at this trip but remains winless after 23 starts. He has shown little on his only visit to Haydock and is 0-2 on good ground. First-time headgear is now tried but the yard's modest 8% strike rate at the track from 93 runs with an A/E of 0.99 offers little encouragement. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he could share the strong early pace. He is stepping up in class.
KTB verdict
Caph Star is the KTB Selection. A modest performer who has been consistent enough this year, he steps up markedly in trip with first-time headgear to help him settle while being held up in a race with a strong pace that could collapse late to his advantage. Trainer Mark Rimell has a solid 17% strike rate at Haydock from a smallish sample. His main dangers are Arrange, who has a solid recent record, has won over this trip and at this track, and Made All, who has been placed on good ground and at Haydock.
KTB Selection Caph Star
This is the narrative read of the 6:18 Haydock. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Haydock racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is trying first-time headgear among the principals?
Both Caph Star and Made All are wearing first-time headgear.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Three of the four principals — Caph Star, Made All and Arrange — are held-up types.
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form?
Arrange has won here over this trip.
Who sets the strong pace according to the run-styles?
Clansman and Havachoc both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Haydock among those with meaningful data?
Sam England has a 20% strike rate at Haydock from 56 runs.
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