6:20 Killarney
The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Vincent O'Brien Ruby Stakes is a competitive Listed event over 1m0f30y at Killarney on good ground. An 11-runner field features several useful performers with placed form in stronger company, and the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched from 62 down to 40. Hardy Warrior tops the KTB numbers and is the selection, though several others bring solid recent efforts and course or trip credentials.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is expected to be strong, and confidence in that assessment is high. Hardy Warrior and Carolina Jetstream are both likely to contest the lead or race prominently, which could set the race up for those held up off the pace. The key question is whether the strong pace will cause the leaders to fold late, allowing hold-up performers such as Syzygy, Jagged Edge and several others to close with effect in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Hardy Warrior KTB Selection62/100Useful sort who has won twice at this trip and has placed on good ground.
- 2Carolina Jetstream60/100Smart performer who has won twice at this trip and arrives in decent form after a string of respectable efforts in stronger company.
- 3Quebec57/100Quebec is a useful performer who has run respectably in some strong races but has failed to land a blow on his last two starts.
- 4Syzygy56/100Useful performer who has been consistent this year with form figures of 33624.
- 5Jagged Edge55/100Useful performer who has won three times over today's trip.
- 6Cristal Clere54/100Useful performer who has won three times over today's trip but is dropping back from 1m4½f.
- 7East Hampton52/100Smart performer who has run to a decent level in recent starts without winning.
- 8Moonlit Sun52/100Useful performer who has already won on this ground and at today's trip.
- 9Wearing Stars50/100Fair performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing in the first four on four of his last five starts.
- 10Rion Rubette47/100Useful performer who has shown a decent level of consistency this year with two wins and two placed efforts from his last five starts.
- 11Subsonic40/100Useful performer who has mixed form this season but ran respectably when fourth last time.
The contenders
Hardy Warrior KTB Fit 62/100
Hardy Warrior is a useful sort who has won twice at this trip and has placed on good ground. He ran creditably when fourth over course and distance on his only start here and his recent form of 41344 reads well in this company. Joseph Patrick O'Brien and Dylan Browne McMonagle both have solid records at Killarney, the trainer operating at an 18% strike rate with an A/E of 0.97 from 445 runs and the jockey at 16% with an A/E of 0.9 from 128 rides. The combination of trainer and jockey strike rates of 19% (A/E 0.90) overall adds further confidence. As a front-runner he is likely to set or share the pace in a race where that could prove vulnerable late, but his proven effectiveness at the trip and around this track make him a major player.
Carolina Jetstream KTB Fit 60/100
Carolina Jetstream is a smart performer who has won twice at this trip and arrives in decent form after a string of respectable efforts in stronger company. He drops back from 1m2f which should suit, while two placed efforts from two runs on good ground add to the positives. This is his first time at Killarney, which is taken as neutral. Wayne Lordan brings a solid 12% strike-rate at the track from 403 rides, and the trainer-jockey combination shows a 22% strike rate from a small sample of nine runners.
Quebec KTB Fit 57/100
Quebec is a useful performer who has run respectably in some strong races but has failed to land a blow on his last two starts. He has been tried four times at this trip without success and the small overall sample makes going preferences hard to pin down, though he has four runs on good without a win or place. Joseph Patrick O'Brien's 18% strike rate at Killarney with an A/E of 0.97 from 445 runs is a positive, as is Declan McDonogh's 19% strike rate with an A/E of 1.27 from 302 rides at the track. The yard and jockey both have solid records here, which helps his claims despite recent form of 638-80.
Syzygy KTB Fit 56/100
Syzygy is a useful performer who has been consistent this year with form figures of 33624. He drops back to a trip he has won twice from six attempts and has shown he can be competitive on good ground, where he is placed once from four starts. Daniel McLoughlin has only a small sample at Killarney with a 0% strike rate from two runs, but Scott McCullagh brings a solid 15% strike rate here from 26 rides with an A/E of 1.41. As a hold-up performer with high confidence in that style he is well placed to benefit if the strong pace collapses late.
Jagged Edge KTB Fit 55/100
Jagged Edge is a useful performer who has won three times over today's trip. He has shown mixed form this year with a win and a third sandwiched between two poor runs, though he acts on good ground where he has one win from two starts and another placed effort. Stephen Thorne has a 0% strike rate at Killarney from four runs while Jack Kearney's modest 5% strike rate at the track from 19 rides adds a note of caution. As a hold-up performer with high confidence in that run-style he could be suited by the anticipated strong pace.
The rest of the field
Cristal ClereKTB Fit 54/100
Cristal Clere is a useful performer who has won three times over today's trip but is dropping back from 1m4½f. He is placed four times from six starts on good ground and brings solid recent form having finished second and first in his last three completed starts before two modest efforts. The trainer is still seeking a first Killarney winner from 19 attempts while Seamie Heffernan operates at a 9% strike rate here from 377 rides.
East HamptonKTB Fit 52/100
East Hampton is a smart performer who has run to a decent level in recent starts without winning. He steps up to a mile for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the yard and jockey both have modest records at Killarney, the trainer at 8% with an A/E of 0.78 from 157 runs and Luke McAteer at 2% with an A/E of 0.17 from 56 rides. He is placed once from six runs on good ground so the surface should be fine, and his hold-up style fits the expected pace shape.
Moonlit SunKTB Fit 52/100
Moonlit Sun is a useful performer who has already won on this ground and at today's trip. Her recent form of 314 shows consistent ability but she is drawn wide in stall 11 which may not help. Mrs John Harrington and Shane Foley both operate at a 10% strike rate at Killarney, the trainer with an A/E of 0.65 from 497 runs and the jockey with an A/E of 0.72 from 342 rides.
Wearing StarsKTB Fit 50/100
Wearing Stars is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing in the first four on four of his last five starts. He acts on good ground where he is placed three times from five starts and has placed both times at this trip, though he still lacks a win at either distance or on this track. Henry De Bromhead and Ronan Whelan both have solid records at Killarney, the trainer at 17% with an A/E of 1 from 415 runs and the jockey at 12% with an A/E of 1.04 from 170 rides.
Rion RubetteKTB Fit 47/100
Rion Rubette is a useful performer who has shown a decent level of consistency this year with two wins and two placed efforts from his last five starts. He finished second here on his only previous visit to Killarney and acts on good ground having won once and placed three times from seven runs. Trainer Michael Butler has a modest 2% strike rate from 47 runs at the track while Paddy Harnett records a 7% strike rate from 44 rides.
SubsonicKTB Fit 40/100
Subsonic is a useful performer who has mixed form this season but ran respectably when fourth last time. He drops back to a trip at which he has placed before though he has never won over it, while his record on good ground is modest with no placed efforts from three starts. J P Murtagh and Ben Coen both have modest strike rates at Killarney, the trainer at 7% with an A/E of 0.51 from 69 runs and the jockey at 3% with an A/E of 0.3 from 88 rides.
KTB verdict
Hardy Warrior is the KTB Selection. He brings the best combination of proven ability at the trip, a creditable course and distance effort, and recent form that stands up well in this company, along with the benefit of a yard and jockey who both perform solidly at Killarney. The strong pace anticipated should test the front-runners, yet his prominent style and class give him every chance of controlling matters or responding when asked. The main dangers are Carolina Jetstream, who drops in trip with good placed form on the surface, and the hold-up types Syzygy and Jagged Edge who are well placed to capitalise if the leaders come back to them late.
KTB Selection Hardy Warrior
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 21 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Hardy Warrior | 13/8 | BetTom |
| Carolina Jetstream | 9/2 | BetTom |
| Quebec | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Syzygy | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Jagged Edge | 4/1 | BetTom |
| Cristal Clere | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| East Hampton | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Moonlit Sun | 5/1 | BetTom |
| Wearing Stars | 25/1 | BetMGM |
| Rion Rubette | 18/1 | BetTom |
| Subsonic | 25/1 | BetMGM |
This is the narrative read of the 6:20 Killarney. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Killarney racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are most likely to set a strong pace?
Hardy Warrior and Carolina Jetstream are both front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has Hardy Warrior recorded at this trip?
Hardy Warrior has won twice at this trip.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Killarney among those riding in this race?
Declan McDonogh has a 19% strike rate at Killarney with an A/E of 1.27 from 302 rides.
Which runner has course form at Killarney?
Hardy Warrior finished fourth over course and distance on his only start here, and Rion Rubette finished second here on his only previous visit.
Which horses are likely to be held up and benefit from a strong pace?
Syzygy, Jagged Edge, Cristal Clere, East Hampton, Moonlit Sun, Wearing Stars, Rion Rubette and Subsonic are all hold-up performers.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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