6:20 Lingfield
This Class 4 restricted maiden fillies' event over 6f at Lingfield features a small field of seven two-year-olds, several of whom are still unexposed. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched, with modest scores across the board reflecting limited racecourse evidence and unproven ability at this level. Mrs Mole heads the KTB Fit order despite modest form to date, while the presence of three debutants and several short-priced placed horses sets up an interesting early-season puzzle on ground that remains untested for most of the runners.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed front-runners in the field and a pace shape that looks on the steady side, the race is likely to be run at a modest gallop early on. Fire Thunder, who has contested similar races from the front or prominently in her placed efforts, could again take them along from stall one, while Mrs Mole is expected to track from a handy draw in two. The key question will be whether any of the newcomers can produce the necessary speed from off the pace to quicken past the more experienced runners in the straight, or whether the race will be decided by those with previous placed form maintaining their position up the straight at Lingfield.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mrs Mole KTB Selection55/100Mrs Mole has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing ninth then fourth without suggesting she is anything better than fair at this stage.
- 2Palm Breeze53/100Palm Breeze is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 3Fire Thunder46/100Placed second on all three starts at this trip and looks a reliable modest performer.
- 4Langdale Lass45/100Langdale Lass is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 15% strike rate at Lingfield from 125 runs.
- 5Mystic Ballistic44/100Mystic Ballistic is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
- 6Deja Vu Diva42/100Deja Vu Diva has shown little in two starts at this trip so far and needs to improve markedly.
- 7Nightspell41/100Nightspell is a debutant with nothing on the track to go on.
The contenders
Mrs Mole KTB Fit 55/100
Mrs Mole has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing ninth then fourth without suggesting she is anything better than fair at this stage. She drops back from 7f to an untried 6f today which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has a solid 14 percent strike rate at Lingfield from a small sample and the yard's 1/12 record with David Probert in the saddle carries an A/E of 0.92. Unproven on the ground having had no previous runs on it, she also has no course form to call upon. From draw two she should be able to race prominently in a race where the pace is not expected to be strong.
Palm Breeze KTB Fit 53/100
Palm Breeze is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The David Loughnane yard has a strong 27 percent strike rate from 22 runners at Lingfield and the trainer-jockey combination shows 61/423 with an A/E of 0.96. By Ten Sovereigns, whose overall win rate stands at 11 percent from 1470 runners, she brings only pedigree and sales background as clues to her ability on debut. Rossa Ryan takes the ride despite a modest 7 percent strike rate at the track from 76 rides. With no course win on record and the going untried, she will need to be fairly sharp to make an impact first time up.
Fire Thunder KTB Fit 46/100
Fire Thunder has been placed second on all three starts at this trip and looks a reliable modest performer. Stall one could be an advantage at Lingfield but she has not found the necessary extra to win yet. The Marco Botti yard posts a 13 percent strike rate here with an A/E of 0.82 from 107 runs while Tom Marquand is aboard with a 16 percent strike rate at the venue. Unproven on the ground having had no previous runs on it, she also has no course form to call upon. Her run-style suggests she will be to the fore in a race that is not expected to feature a strong pace.
Langdale Lass KTB Fit 45/100
Langdale Lass is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 15 percent strike rate at Lingfield from 125 runs. The low data confidence means any view rests mainly on her sales price and pedigree rather than any racecourse evidence. Sean Levey takes the ride and the trainer-jockey record stands at 10/62 with an A/E of 1.21. By Tasleet, whose overall win rate stands at 10 percent from 1037 runners, she has no course win on record. With the going untried, she represents something of an unknown but the Simcock stable's record at the track commands respect.
The rest of the field
Mystic BallisticKTB Fit 44/100
Mystic Ballistic is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The first-time headgear suggests connections want to sharpen him up straight away and the low data confidence means any judgement rests on pedigree and sales background alone. Trainer Hilal Kobeissi has only three runs at Lingfield so far with a 0 percent strike rate while Kieran Shoemark has a solid 15 percent strike rate at the track.
Deja Vu DivaKTB Fit 42/100
Deja Vu Diva has shown little in two starts at this trip so far and needs to improve markedly. The yard has a 0 percent strike rate from 15 runs at Lingfield which adds further concern. With only two career runs this remains very much a watching brief and she is unproven on the ground.
NightspellKTB Fit 41/100
Nightspell is a debutant with nothing on the track to go on. The low data confidence means any read has to lean on pedigree and sales background which are not supplied here. Trainer has only two runs at the track which is too small a sample to judge and the yard shows a 0 percent strike rate at Lingfield.
KTB verdict
Mrs Mole is named the KTB Selection. She has shown only modest form in two starts but drops back to 6f from 7f in a race where the pace may not be strong, allowing her prominent run-style from a good draw to come into play. The trainer's 14 percent strike rate at Lingfield from a small sample is a positive and she is taken to improve past some of the more exposed modest performers. The main dangers are Fire Thunder, who has been placed in all three starts at this trip and may benefit from the rail draw, and the two most interesting debutants Palm Breeze and Langdale Lass, whose yards both have above-average records at the track.
KTB Selection Mrs Mole
This is the narrative read of the 6:20 Lingfield. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Lingfield racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has been placed in all three of her starts at this trip?
Fire Thunder, who has figures of 222.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Lingfield for the yard of the KTB Selection?
14 percent from a small sample with an A/E of 1.33 from 7 runs.
Which runner is fitted with first-time headgear?
Mystic Ballistic.
How many previous runs has the yard of Deja Vu Diva had at Lingfield?
15 runs with a 0 percent strike rate.
Which two principals are making their racecourse debuts?
Palm Breeze and Langdale Lass.
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