6:22 Catterick
A small but interesting field of five two-year-olds lines up for the British EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f at Catterick on good ground. With no previous course winners and a general lack of experience, the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 44 and 52, underlining how little separates the principals on known data. The race lacks established form lines, so trainer and jockey course records, as well as market confidence, are likely to carry extra weight.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates no obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy could prove advantageous. Sou'wester is the only one with a prominent run-style and may end up dictating from stall one, while the remainder are expected to track or come from further back. The key question is whether the race develops into a sprint for the line or if the lack of early pace allows a prominent runner to steal an uncontested advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Collateral Damage KTB Selection52/100Collateral Damage is a first-foal by Too Darn Hot out of a 1m AW winner and cost 270,000gns as a foal.
- 2Wilbur51/100Wilbur showed fair form when finishing a promising fourth on debut at Newbury last month, not getting the clearest of runs behind a couple of useful types.
- 3Rogue Passion48/100Rogue Passion is a 90,000 euro yearling and first foal by Sioux Nation out of a mare who won over 7.5f and 10.3f.
- 4Leave The Bag In48/100Modest performer who showed some early promise when eighth on debut at York over 6f but failed to build on it when seventh at Thirsk over this trip last time.
- 5Sou'wester44/100Modest 2-year-old who has twice finished fifth in minor races at this trip.
The contenders
Collateral Damage KTB Fit 52/100
Collateral Damage is a first-foal by Too Darn Hot out of a 1m AW winner and cost 270,000gns as a foal. Connections are in decent form here with the trainer showing a 15% strike-rate from 405 runs at Catterick and the jockey operating at 20% from 85 rides. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the colt remains an unknown quantity that will need watching in the market. The KTB Fit of 52 is the highest in the field and he is the clear selection. His pedigree suggests the 7f trip will be within range on debut.
Wilbur KTB Fit 51/100
Wilbur showed fair form when finishing a promising fourth on debut at Newbury last month, not getting the clearest of runs behind a couple of useful types. The step up to 7f looks sure to suit on pedigree and he is open to improvement, though the small sample means his ability has to be taken on trust for now. Trainer Harry Eustace has an 8% strike rate from 12 runs at Catterick while Kaiya Fraser records 13% from 16 rides here. His RPR of 82 and TS of 75 mark him as the most accomplished on figures. Held up in his style, he will be looking to come from off the steady pace.
Rogue Passion KTB Fit 48/100
Rogue Passion is a 90,000 euro yearling and first foal by Sioux Nation out of a mare who won over 7.5f and 10.3f. The Edward Bethell yard posts a 22% strike-rate at Catterick from 36 runs while Kevin Stott has a 14% record from 201 rides here. With no previous runs and low data confidence the assessment stays tentative and market support will be worth noting on debut. The KTB Fit of 48 places him firmly in the mix among the principals. His sire's 13% overall win rate adds a further layer of pedigree interest.
The rest of the field
Leave The Bag InKTB Fit 48/100
Leave The Bag In is a modest performer who showed some early promise when eighth on debut at York over 6f but failed to build on it when seventh at Thirsk over this trip last time. The drop into a Class 3 looks a more suitable level and the trainer has a solid 20% strike rate from 60 runs at Catterick. Trip suitability remains unproven after one run without success and the small-sample going record offers no real clues.
Sou'westerKTB Fit 44/100
Sou'wester is a modest 2-year-old who has twice finished fifth in minor races at this trip. Pulled hard and hung left at Beverley last time though the sharper Catterick track may suit him better from stall 1. Tim Easterby has a 12 percent strike rate here from 1897 runs while David Allan is 10 percent from 932 rides.
KTB verdict
Collateral Damage is the KTB Selection. He represents strong connections at this track, boasts the highest Fit score, and his pedigree gives every reason to expect a competitive debut. Wilbur brings the best existing form and is open to clear improvement over the extra furlong, making him the most obvious danger. Rogue Passion, Leave The Bag In and Sou'wester complete the picture, with the latter potentially helping to set the shape from the front.
KTB Selection Collateral Damage
This is the narrative read of the 6:22 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer course record at Catterick?
Rogue Passion, with trainer Edward Bethell recording a 22% strike rate from 36 runs.
Who showed the highest official ratings on previous runs?
Wilbur, with an RPR of 82 and TS of 75 from his fourth at Newbury.
How does the race's pace shape influence the runners?
It lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which runner is stepping up in class?
Both Wilbur and Sou'wester are stepping up in class.
What is the KTB Fit score of the selection?
Collateral Damage has a KTB Fit of 52/100.
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