6:28 Leopardstown
The Harry Meighan Memorial Handicap brings a field of 14 to Leopardstown over a mile on good to firm ground. It features a mix of modest and fair performers, several with prior experience at the track, though questions remain around unproven conditions for a number of runners. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Heliogabalus heading the numbers on the back of a recent course win, while Finsceal Annie, Dark Viper, Ocean Manifest and Hamiyan complete the principals in a race where course form and trip suitability will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even gallop with several horses who race prominently or in mid-division. Heliogabalus from draw 2 and Liberate from stall 1 are likely to be forward, while the likes of Zaraahmando, Dark Viper and Ocean Manifest can settle in the first half of the field. The key question is whether those drawn low can secure a decent early position on what is often a track that rewards being handy, or whether the race will fragment and allow hold-up types a chance to close late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Heliogabalus KTB Selection62/100Modest performer who won over this trip here last time and now returns off a 7lb higher mark.
- 2Finsceal Annie60/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has a win on good to firm ground from three attempts.
- 3Dark Viper52/100Dark Viper is a fair handicapper who knows his way around this track, having won two of his four starts here.
- 4Ocean Manifest52/100Ocean Manifest is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip from seven attempts and showed useful form when landing a win earlier this season.
- 5Hamiyan51/100Fair performer who has shown some ability on his three starts at this trip without winning.
- 6Bill Silvers50/100Bill Silvers is a fair performer who has shown placed form over this trip and at Leopardstown without winning.
- 7Zaraahmando49/100Modest performer who ran well when second over this trip here last time but has been hit and miss overall.
- 8Glyndwr47/100Fair performer who has won twice over this trip but arrives out of form after two modest efforts this year.
- 9Dark Summit46/100Modest performer who has been well beaten on all eight starts and showed little spark when last seen.
- 10Eddie G45/100Modest performer who has run twice here without placing.
- 11Frank Pickle41/100Modest performer who ran respectably when fifth at this track last time but was well held on his other visit here.
- 12Liberate39/100Modest performer who has been below form all year and now tries first-time headgear.
- 13Ballymagreehan38/100Modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has been below form on his last two starts after a promising win in May.
- 14Heart Of Eternity37/100Modest performer who has struggled this year with form figures of 06800 and no win in eight starts.
The contenders
Heliogabalus KTB Fit 62/100
Heliogabalus is a modest performer who won over this trip here last time and now returns off a 7lb higher mark. He has a solid course record, having scored once from two starts at Leopardstown. The yard has a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.73 from 31 runs, which is above expectations. Colin Keane takes the ride with a 14% strike rate at Leopardstown from 871 rides. Unproven on good to firm ground is the main negative but his recent form of 3100-1 includes that latest victory at this venue. From a low draw of 2 he should be able to race prominently in a race where being handy looks important.
Finsceal Annie KTB Fit 60/100
Finsceal Annie is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has a win on good to firm ground from three attempts. She drops back to 1m today having last run over 1m1f and holds a solid course record at the trip with one win from 14 starts. The trainer records a 9% strike rate at Leopardstown from 65 runs with an A/E of 1.47, while the jockey has a 13% strike rate from 271 rides here. Recent form of 26-008 shows she can mix her form but her placed efforts at the course add to her claims. With a draw of 8 she should be able to find a decent position in mid-division.
Dark Viper KTB Fit 52/100
Dark Viper is a fair handicapper who knows his way around this track, having won two of his four starts here. He drops back to his winning trip today after a recent run over further, though his record on good to firm is limited to a single unplaced effort. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1550 runs with an A/E of 0.85, which is modest, but this is offset by the jockey's solid 13% strike rate from a smaller sample of 47 rides with an A/E of 1.08. Recent form reads -06885 and from draw 7 he can race in the first half of the field. His course record of two wins from four starts makes him a respected contender.
Ocean Manifest KTB Fit 52/100
Ocean Manifest is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip from seven attempts and showed useful form when landing a win earlier this season. He has been below that level on his last two starts and was well held on his only previous run at Leopardstown. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 19 runs here with an A/E of 1.06, while the jockey is still seeking a first success from 56 rides at the track. Unproven on good to firm ground is another question mark. Recent form of 13-164 shows flashes of ability but consistency has been lacking. Drawn in 4 he should be able to race prominently.
Hamiyan KTB Fit 51/100
Hamiyan is a fair performer who has shown some ability on his three starts at this trip without winning. He was below form on his most recent run and now tries headgear for the first time from a wide draw. Trainer Dermot Weld has a solid 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from 3157 runs with an A/E of 0.92, while jockey Chris Hayes records an 8% strike rate here from 1201 rides with an A/E of 0.79. Recent form of 9234-0 highlights that he can be competitive at this trip but the wide draw in 14 is a clear negative. The first-time headgear is an unknown that could help or hinder.
The rest of the field
Bill SilversKTB Fit 50/100
Bill Silvers is a fair performer who has shown placed form over this trip and at Leopardstown without winning. He drops back from 1m1½f today having failed to score in seven previous attempts at a mile while his record on good to firm is unproven. The trainer has no previous runners here and the 7 lb claimer has had too few rides at the track to judge.
ZaraahmandoKTB Fit 49/100
Zaraahmando is a modest performer who ran well when second over this trip here last time but has been hit and miss overall. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Leopardstown with strike rates of 7% and 8% respectively. Unproven on good to firm ground adds an unknown.
GlyndwrKTB Fit 47/100
Glyndwr is a fair performer who has won twice over this trip but arrives out of form after two modest efforts this year. He has run three times at Leopardstown without placing and the yard's 10% strike rate here is no better than average. Jockey is 1-33 at the track while the sole run on good to firm ground also failed to produce a win or place.
Dark SummitKTB Fit 46/100
Dark Summit is a modest performer who has been well beaten on all eight starts and showed little spark when last seen. He drops back to 1m today having failed to make the frame at that trip in three previous attempts and is unproven on good to firm ground. Trainer has a 6% strike rate from 282 runs here while the jockey is operating at 8% from 838 rides.
Eddie GKTB Fit 45/100
Eddie G is a modest performer who has run twice here without placing. He steps up to 1m today having been placed at the trip earlier in his career though he is unproven on good to firm ground. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown and wide draw add to the negatives.
Frank PickleKTB Fit 41/100
Frank Pickle is a modest performer who ran respectably when fifth at this track last time but was well held on his other visit here. He drops back to 1m today having looked stretched over further last time though he has been beaten on his only previous try at the trip. Trainer has a modest record at Leopardstown and this one is unproven on good to firm ground.
LiberateKTB Fit 39/100
Liberate is a modest performer who has been below form all year and now tries first-time headgear. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Leopardstown and the yard's strike rate here is low. Unproven on good to firm ground and has failed to place in three runs at this trip.
BallymagreehanKTB Fit 38/100
Ballymagreehan is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has been below form on his last two starts after a promising win in May. Only one previous run at Leopardstown and just one on good to firm ground so both are unknowns rather than proven strengths. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track is a negative while the jockey's 10% record offers some encouragement.
Heart Of EternityKTB Fit 37/100
Heart Of Eternity is a modest performer who has struggled this year with form figures of 06800 and no win in eight starts. He steps up from 6f to 1m for the first time in a while having been beaten on his only previous try at the trip while his sole run on good to firm ground produced a placing. Trainer records a 6% strike rate from 282 runs at Leopardstown and the jockey has had only one ride here so this is very much unknown territory for the pair.
KTB verdict
Heliogabalus looks the one to beat. He arrives in form after winning over this trip at Leopardstown last time, boasts a solid course record, and the yard is operating above expectations at the track. The main negative of being unproven on good to firm is noted but his ability to race prominently from a low draw should serve him well. The chief dangers are Finsceal Annie, who has a good record at the venue and a win on this ground, and Dark Viper, who knows the track well having won twice here. Ocean Manifest and Hamiyan are next in the KTB Fit order and cannot be entirely dismissed if the race shape falls in their favour.
KTB Selection Heliogabalus
This is the narrative read of the 6:28 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course win at this trip?
Heliogabalus won over this trip here last time.
How many horses in the field are unproven on good to firm ground?
Nine horses have no runs on good to firm.
Which runner is trying headgear for the first time?
Hamiyan and Liberate are both wearing first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Leopardstown among those with significant runners?
Dermot Weld has a 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from 3157 runs.
Who has the strongest placed record at Leopardstown in this race?
Finsceal Annie has won twice at this track from six runs and Zaraahmando was second here last time.
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