6:28 Lingfield (AW)
A Class 6 handicap over the 7f1y at Lingfield on standard ground brings together a field of 13 modest performers where the KTB numbers highlight a clear but narrow edge to the top five. Split Elevens heads the Fit ratings on 62 while the next four are tightly bunched between 56 and 49, underlining how little separates most of this bunch on paper. With the pace shape pointing to a lone leader having an uncontested run, the race is likely to hinge on whether that front-runner can dictate matters or if the held-up types can bridge the gap late.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is expected to bowl along with little to no pressure from the others. Quick Quasar, the only confirmed front-runner in the field, is therefore handed an ideal scenario and should be allowed to set an even gallop from his favourable draw. The remainder of the field, overwhelmingly made up of held-up runners, will be asked to come from off that pace, posing the key question of whether the leader can be reeled in late or whether the uncontested advantage will prove decisive over this inner-track trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Split Elevens KTB Selection62/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from nine runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with eight wins from 37 starts.
- 2Quick Quasar56/100Modest performer who has shown enough to be competitive at this level, including a win at today's trip.
- 3Spirit Of Breeze55/100Modest performer who has won twice at this trip and once here over 7f.
- 4Chelio53/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency on this track, finishing placed on both previous visits without winning.
- 5Midnight's Dream49/100Limited horse who has shown nothing better than modest form in recent starts and is now fitted with headgear for the first time.
- 6Elvetham49/100Limited horse who has won twice at this track from five runs and holds a solid course record.
- 7Francisco48/100Francisco has looked limited at this level for some time and his recent form has been patchy at best.
- 8Wind Summer48/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency at this track with two placed efforts from as many starts.
- 9My Dad Tom47/100Limited performer who has shown very little in 11 starts and arrives here in modest form.
- 10Lerwick46/100Modest performer who won last time out over 7½f but now drops back to his more familiar 7f trip where he has one win from 11 starts.
- 11Captive Beauty46/100Limited horse who has shown only modest form in four starts.
- 12Blue Samuna42/100Blue Samuna is a limited performer on the evidence of six runs and recent form of 46-678 that offers no encouragement.
- 13Oxford Circus37/100Limited horse who has struggled since early promise, with recent form of 580600 showing no spark.
The contenders
Split Elevens KTB Fit 62/100
Split Elevens is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from nine runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with eight wins from 37 starts. He has shown consistent form of late with a win and a second in his last six outings and acts well on standard ground with seven wins from 33 starts. The eight-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, a run-style that could be vulnerable if the leader is allowed to get away. Trainer John Butler has a 12% strike rate at Lingfield from 496 runs while jockey Jack Callan, making his first appearance at the track, has a 20% strike rate here from 45 rides. Drawn in stall one he has the perfect position from which to launch his challenge, and his course-and-distance record adds further appeal.
Quick Quasar KTB Fit 56/100
Quick Quasar is a modest performer who has shown enough to be competitive at this level, including a win at today's trip. Placed once from five runs on standard ground, he now tries Lingfield for the first time though the yard's solid 19% strike rate here offers some encouragement. A confirmed front-runner, he is perfectly placed to take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape and should be able to dictate terms from draw four. First-time headgear is now added following a mixed recent run of form, and this drop in class looks a positive. The three-year-old's ability to get an uncontested lead could make him very hard to peg back if he settles nicely.
Spirit Of Breeze KTB Fit 55/100
Spirit Of Breeze is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip and once here over 7f. Recent placed efforts over a mile read reasonably well in this grade and the return to his optimum distance looks a plus, though he is drawn wide in stall 10. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right if the leader is allowed an easy time of it. First-time headgear is another unknown on a horse with a solid course-and-distance record. The Gary & Josh Moore yard has an 11% strike rate at Lingfield from 139 runs while Finley Marsh has an 11% strike rate here from 248 rides.
Chelio KTB Fit 53/100
Chelio is a modest performer who has shown some consistency on this track, finishing placed on both previous visits without winning. Recent form has been patchy and the yard's modest strike-rate here adds no confidence, yet the drop in class is a positive. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall eight, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get first run. He has been placed on both his runs on standard ground and the balance of his efforts suggests the trip should suit. Denis Coakley has a 10% strike rate at Lingfield from 335 runs while George Bass has a 12% strike rate here from 162 rides.
Midnight's Dream KTB Fit 49/100
Midnight's Dream is a limited horse who has shown nothing better than modest form in recent starts and is now fitted with headgear for the first time. He has placed four times from seven runs on standard ground and won once over today's 7f trip, but makes his first visit to Lingfield. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw seven, he will need to find extra if he is to trouble the leader in a race with an uncontested pace advantage up front. Trainer Joseph Parr has a 10% strike rate at the track from 94 runs while Daniel Muscutt has a 12% strike rate here from 633 rides. The five-year-old's placed efforts on this surface keep him in the picture at this level.
The rest of the field
ElvethamKTB Fit 49/100
Elvetham is a limited horse who has won twice at this track from five runs and holds a solid course record. He has shown mixed form this year with a recent win over 6f but steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at 7f, while first-time headgear is now applied.
FranciscoKTB Fit 48/100
Francisco has looked limited at this level for some time and his recent form has been patchy at best. He does have a C&D win on his record and has placed on standard ground, yet the first-time headgear is now needed to spark a revival.
Wind SummerKTB Fit 48/100
Wind Summer is a modest performer who has shown some consistency at this track with two placed efforts from as many starts. He drops back from 1m1½f to a trip where he has already been placed once, though he now tries headgear for the first time.
My Dad TomKTB Fit 47/100
My Dad Tom is a limited performer who has shown very little in 11 starts and arrives here in modest form. He has been tried over today's 7f trip three times without success and steps up in distance again from a recent 6f run, with first-time headgear now reached for.
LerwickKTB Fit 46/100
Lerwick is a modest performer who won last time out over 7½f but now drops back to his more familiar 7f trip where he has one win from 11 starts. First-time headgear is tried from stall 12 while he has shown some competitiveness here when fifth on his only previous visit.
Captive BeautyKTB Fit 46/100
Captive Beauty is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in four starts. She has placed once at this trip but the wide draw in stall 11 is a clear negative on an inner-track layout.
Blue SamunaKTB Fit 42/100
Blue Samuna is a limited performer on the evidence of six runs and recent form of 46-678 that offers no encouragement. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having failed to make the frame in three previous attempts at the distance, while first-time headgear is now tried.
Oxford CircusKTB Fit 37/100
Oxford Circus is a limited horse who has struggled since early promise, with recent form of 580600 showing no spark. He has won once from five runs on standard ground yet is now tried here for the first time from a wide draw, and the trip looks on the sharp side.
KTB verdict
Split Elevens is the KTB Selection. A modest performer with two wins at this track and a strong course-and-distance profile, he arrives in consistent form and has the ideal draw and run-style to capitalise if the leader is brought back to him. The eight-year-old's record on standard ground and the positive trainer-jockey combination at the venue strengthen his claims. His main dangers are likely to be Quick Quasar, who can take full advantage of the uncontested lead, and Spirit Of Breeze, who returns to his optimum trip with the help of first-time headgear despite the wide draw.
KTB Selection Split Elevens
This is the narrative read of the 6:28 Lingfield (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Lingfield (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Quick Quasar is the only confirmed front-runner and should be able to dictate from his draw in stall four given the lone-leader pace shape.
Why does Split Elevens appeal from stall one?
He is usually held up, has won twice at the track from nine runs, and the inside draw gives him the perfect position to launch a late challenge against the lone leader.
How many course wins does Spirit Of Breeze have at Lingfield?
He has won once here from three runs, including a success over this 7f trip.
What is the course record of Elvetham at Lingfield?
He has won twice at the track from five runs and holds a solid course record.
Which horse is dropping in class and trying first-time headgear?
Quick Quasar is dropping in class and is fitted with first-time headgear.
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