6:30 Naas
The Arqana Irish EBF Marwell Stakes is a Listed race for two-year-olds over five furlongs at Naas on good ground. A field of ten lines up with little established form to go on, as most runners have only one or two starts behind them. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, underlining how open the race looks on paper and how much rests on interpreting very limited evidence.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence because there is not enough run-style evidence across the field to read the race with any certainty. Shesthedevil is the only horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, yet that assessment itself carries limited evidence. How the pace unfolds therefore remains a key unknown, and the race could be decided by which runners handle the five-furlong trip best while adapting to any tempo that develops.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Shimmering Sun KTB Selection65/100Shimmering Sun is a useful 2yo who has won both starts at this trip on good ground.
- 2Silent Beauty63/100Silent Beauty showed useful form when winning on debut but was well held in a stronger race next time.
- 3Tropical Crown61/100Tropical Crown won its only start over this trip.
- 4April Mist57/100April Mist has shown useful early talent with form of 21 in two runs and has already won at this trip on good ground.
- 5Belle Of The Ball56/100Useful performer who has already won over this trip on her debut.
- 6Back To The Lodge53/100Back To The Lodge has only one run to go on so any assessment is tentative.
- 7Big Negotiator48/100Fair performer who has shown a mix of promise and disappointment in five starts.
- 8Eastern Queen47/100Eastern Queen showed only modest speed when fifth on debut over this trip.
- 9Concorde Landed47/100Concorde Landed won on debut over this trip on good ground at this track.
- 10Shesthedevil38/100Shesthedevil is a fair 2-year-old with three runs behind her and a win on good ground from just two starts on this surface.
The contenders
Shimmering Sun KTB Fit 65/100
Shimmering Sun is a useful two-year-old who has won both starts at this trip on good ground. The small sample means the form has to be treated with caution but the colt has shown enough to suggest he belongs at this level. Trainer Harry Eustace has no recorded runs at Naas while Dylan Browne McMonagle has a modest record at the track with a 14% strike rate and A/E 0.96 from 219 rides. The colt acts on good ground having won once from one start and is drawn in stall six. Overall the KTB Fit score of 65 marks him out as the one to beat.
Silent Beauty KTB Fit 63/100
Silent Beauty showed useful form when winning on debut but was well held in a stronger race next time. She drops back to 5f today which asks a fresh question. The small sample means everything has to be read with caution. Kevin Philippart De Foy has no record at Naas while Donagh O'Connor has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.35 from 118 rides. She remains unproven on good ground. The KTB Fit score of 63 keeps her firmly in the mix.
Tropical Crown KTB Fit 61/100
Tropical Crown won its only start over this trip. The small sample means everything else is guesswork but the trainer has a strong 31% strike rate from 13 runs at Naas with an A/E of 1.68. Lightly raced and open to improvement, the colt steps up in class having shown enough on debut. Pierre-Louis Jamin takes the ride with a neutral record at the track. He remains unproven on good ground. The KTB Fit score of 61 leaves him with every chance if the Naas trainer record translates.
April Mist KTB Fit 57/100
April Mist has shown useful early talent with form of 21 in two runs and has already won at this trip on good ground. She has course experience after finishing second here last time though the small sample means her level is still hard to pin down. Trainer Lyons has a solid 15% strike rate at Naas from a big sample of 883 runs with an A/E of 0.94 while jockey Colin Keane is aboard with a 17% strike rate and A/E 0.95 from 746 rides at the track. She has a 1 win from 2 on good with 2 places. The KTB Fit score of 57 confirms her as a live contender.
Belle Of The Ball KTB Fit 56/100
Belle Of The Ball is a useful performer who has already won over this trip on her debut. She showed that speed again when fifth in a stronger race last time having been raised in class. The drop back to 5f looks a positive. Mrs John Harrington strikes at 9% here from a big sample of 1130 runs with an A/E of 0.76 while Shane Foley has a 10% strike rate at Naas with an A/E of 0.82 from 766 rides. She has one run on good with no win or place. The KTB Fit score of 56 keeps her interest alive.
The rest of the field
Back To The LodgeKTB Fit 53/100
Back To The Lodge has only one run to go on so any assessment is tentative. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate from 16 runs at Naas with an A/E of 1.43. Dropping back to 5f is an unknown and first-time headgear adds further guesswork. The KTB Fit score of 53 reflects the limited information available.
Big NegotiatorKTB Fit 48/100
Big Negotiator is a fair performer who has shown a mix of promise and disappointment in five starts. He has already won over this trip on good ground and was a solid fourth over course and distance last time, though he has yet to place in three runs in stronger company. First-time headgear is now fitted while the yard’s 14 per cent strike rate at Naas from 49 runs offers some encouragement. The KTB Fit score of 48 sums up a mixed profile.
Eastern QueenKTB Fit 47/100
Eastern Queen showed only modest speed when fifth on debut over this trip. The small sample makes it impossible to gauge whether the Naas track or today's good ground will suit. Trainer John S O'Donoghue has a 7% strike rate from 28 runs at Naas with an A/E of 0.93. The KTB Fit score of 47 reflects the modest debut effort.
Concorde LandedKTB Fit 47/100
Concorde Landed won on debut over this trip on good ground at this track. The form has to be treated with caution given the small sample and low data confidence yet the trainer's 14 percent strike rate from 49 runs at Naas is modest. Stall three looks fine if the colt can build on that initial effort. The KTB Fit score of 47 leaves him with questions to answer.
ShesthedevilKTB Fit 38/100
Shesthedevil is a fair 2-year-old with three runs behind her and a win on good ground from just two starts on this surface. Dropping back to 5f for the first time asks a fresh question after her last run over 6f. Patrick Magee has a 0% strike rate from 18 runs at Naas while Chris Hayes is the positive booking. The KTB Fit score of 38 reflects the unknowns.
KTB verdict
Shimmering Sun is the KTB Selection. He has won both starts at this trip on good ground and has shown enough to suggest he belongs at Listed level despite the small sample. The selection can build on that promise under Dylan Browne McMonagle. Main dangers are headed by Silent Beauty, who showed useful form on debut, and Tropical Crown, whose trainer has a strong record at Naas and who remains open to improvement. April Mist brings course form while Belle Of The Ball looks well suited by the drop back to five furlongs.
KTB Selection Shimmering Sun
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 22 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Shimmering Sun | 5/2 | BetTom |
| Silent Beauty | 11/1 | BetTom |
| Tropical Crown | 13/2 | William Hill |
| April Mist | 10/1 | William Hill |
| Belle Of The Ball | 18/1 | BetTom |
| Back To The Lodge | 125/1 | BetTom |
| Big Negotiator | 18/1 | William Hill |
| Eastern Queen | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Concorde Landed | 11/10 | LiveScore Bet |
| Shesthedevil | 50/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 6:30 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-and-distance experience in the race?
Big Negotiator was a solid fourth over course and distance last time while April Mist finished second here last time.
Who has the strongest trainer record at Naas among the principals?
K. R. Burke has a 31% strike rate at Naas from 13 runs with an A/E of 1.68.
Which runners are proven winners over the five-furlong trip on good ground?
Shimmering Sun, April Mist, Big Negotiator, Concorde Landed and Shesthedevil have all won over this trip on good ground.
How many of the field are stepping up in class?
Tropical Crown is stepping up in class having won its only start.
Which horse is the only one noted with a front-running run-style?
Shesthedevil tends to make the running or race on the pace though that assessment carries limited evidence and low confidence.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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