6:45 Nottingham
This Class 6 apprentice handicap over 2m at Nottingham on good to firm ground brings together a small but competitive field of six modest performers. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 50 and 34, reflecting a race where recent form, trip suitability and the strong pace anticipated will all play significant parts. Joanna Hiffernan tops the KTB Fit at 50 and is the selection, though several others have shown enough to make this an open-looking contest.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is strongly positive and the race is expected to be run at a genuine gallop. Joanna Hiffernan, Free World and Hope Rising all tend to race prominently or make the running, while Assured is usually prominent, so early speed should be plentiful. This sets up a race that could collapse late and therefore poses the key question of whether the hold-up horses Zooter and Simiyann can pick up the pieces in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Joanna Hiffernan KTB Selection50/100Modest performer who has shown steady progress in four runs, finishing a clear second last time out over 1m4f.
- 2Free World46/100Modest performer who showed improved form when winning at this trip last time out.
- 3Zooter45/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning.
- 4Hope Rising44/100Limited horse who has shown a bit more since returning from a break with a win at this trip last time.
- 5Simiyann43/100Limited horse who has been placed on both previous runs at Nottingham and has won three times over today's trip.
- 6Assured34/100Limited horse who has shown very little in nine starts and arrives in modest form.
The contenders
Joanna Hiffernan KTB Fit 50/100
Joanna Hiffernan is a modest performer who has shown steady progress across her four starts, culminating in a clear second last time out over 1m4f. She steps up markedly in trip to 2m today, which poses a fresh question, yet the selection has the assistance of a trainer in Owen Burrows who holds a 26% strike rate at Nottingham from 53 runs. The small-sample going note shows she has been competitive without winning on good to firm from two attempts. Drawn in stall three, her run-style as a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace could see her set a strong gallop in a race where the pace is likely to be strong and potentially collapse late.
Free World KTB Fit 46/100
Free World is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning at this trip last time out. He has a bit to find on his earlier fourth over the same distance here at Nottingham, though the booking of the 3lb claimer Tom Kiely-Marshall is a positive. The trainer Ian Williams has a solid 10% strike-rate at the track from a large sample of 267 runs. With one win and a placing from three starts on good to firm he handles the surface, and his front-running tendencies, albeit with limited evidence, mean he will be up with the strong pace expected.
Zooter KTB Fit 45/100
Zooter is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without managing to win. He is dropping in class here and this will be only his second attempt at 2m. The three-year-old has never placed on good to firm ground from five attempts, which is a concern on these conditions. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is ideally placed to benefit if the strong pace collapses in the latter stages, though both trainer Jack Jones and jockey Connor Planas have modest records at Nottingham.
Hope Rising KTB Fit 44/100
Hope Rising is a limited horse who has shown a bit more since returning from a break, winning at this trip last time out. He steps up from 1m3½f having already won twice over 2m, so the distance looks suitable, and he acts on good to firm with one win and two placings from five starts. The 3lb claimer Harry Vigors takes the ride and holds an 18% strike rate at Nottingham from 11 rides. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, he will be involved early in what is anticipated to be a strongly run race.
The rest of the field
SimiyannKTB Fit 43/100
Simiyann is a limited horse who has been placed on both previous runs at Nottingham and has won three times over today's trip. First-time headgear is now tried after a string of modest efforts, though he has shown he handles good to firm ground with one win and two placings from six starts. Usually held up with high confidence, he is well suited to a race with a strong pace that could collapse late, and trainer Ian Williams posts a 10% strike rate here from a large sample.
AssuredKTB Fit 34/100
Assured is a limited horse who has shown very little in nine starts and arrives in modest form. First-time headgear is tried as he steps up markedly in trip to 2m, which asks a fresh question of him. Usually prominent with medium confidence, he will be involved early but has no placed form on good to firm from three attempts and the trainer's small sample at Nottingham offers little guidance.
KTB verdict
Joanna Hiffernan is the KTB Selection. She has shown steady progression in four starts and finished a clear second last time, with the yard's solid record at Nottingham adding to her appeal even though the step up to 2m asks a fresh question. The strong pace anticipated, with several front-runners likely to go hard early, should suit her prominent racing style and set the race up for a late collapse that could play into the hands of hold-up types. Free World arrives on the back of a win at this trip and cannot be dismissed, while Zooter and Hope Rising are the other principals who shape as the most likely dangers on the balance of their KTB assessments.
KTB Selection Joanna Hiffernan
This is the narrative read of the 6:45 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip and what does that mean for the race?
Joanna Hiffernan steps up markedly in trip from 1m4f to 2m, asking a fresh question, while the strong pace shape could still favour hold-up horses if the front-runners collapse late.
How many horses are likely to contest the lead early?
Three principals – Joanna Hiffernan, Free World and Hope Rising – tend to make the running or race prominently, with Assured usually prominent, supporting the strong pace likely assessment.
Which runners have previous placed form at Nottingham?
Free World has a fourth here over the same distance, while Simiyann has been placed on both his previous runs at the track.
Who is trying first-time headgear in this race?
Simiyann and Assured are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse has won twice over 2m already?
Hope Rising has already won twice over 2m and steps up from 1m3½f today with the distance looking suitable.
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