6:50 Hamilton
A compact Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip at Hamilton on good to soft ground brings together six runners where the KTB Fit ratings suggest a competitive but open-looking affair. Ingleby Archie tops the KTB numbers on 61 and arrives in form, while the next three principals are tightly bunched between 57 and 49. The overall picture is one of modest ability across the board, with recent form and course familiarity likely to prove decisive on a night when the pace shape is unclear.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated unclear and low confidence in the run-style data, it is difficult to be certain how the race will unfold. Several runners have shown flexibility in their racing, though Ashen is noted as usually held up and producing its effort late. The key question is whether the field can find enough early speed to set a genuine test or whether the race will become a sprint from halfway, leaving those with the strongest finishing kicks at an advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ingleby Archie KTB Selection61/100
- 2Come On Over57/100
- 3Eartha52/100
- 4Not Me49/100
- 5Iris Dancer47/100
- 6Ashen46/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
The contenders
Ingleby Archie KTB Fit 61/100
Ingleby Archie is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit ratings on 61. A 5-year-old with recent form figures of 0-4321, he showed his best side when winning last time out. The trainer Adrian Nicholls has a 17% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 0.92 from 64 runs, while jockey Jack Garritty has an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.75 from 167 rides. He has recorded one win from three starts on good to soft ground with two placed efforts, and has been placed on both previous visits to the course without winning. The combination of current form, course placings and trainer's local record makes him the one to beat.
Come On Over KTB Fit 57/100
Come On Over is rated second on KTB Fit with a mark of 57. This 3-year-old has recent form figures of 708421 and steps up in class having shown improved form of late. First-time headgear is now applied. Trainer David O'Meara has a 17% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 0.91 from 407 runs, and jockey Mark Winn boasts a 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.29 from 56 rides. The colt has been placed once from three starts on good to soft ground without winning and has no course form on record. He remains open to further progress and should be thereabouts if the headgear has the desired effect.
Eartha KTB Fit 52/100
Eartha is next on the KTB Fit ratings with a score of 52. The 4-year-old has recent form figures of 0/809- and is unproven on good to soft ground having had no previous runs on it. Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey have a 12% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 0.72 from 17 runs, while jockey Oisin McSweeney has a 21% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.46 from 29 rides. The pair have a 0/8 record when teaming up. With no course form on record, Eartha will need to improve markedly on what she has shown to date to play a leading role here.
Not Me KTB Fit 49/100
Not Me carries a KTB Fit rating of 49. This 5-year-old has recent form figures of 9-5501 and showed a return to form when successful last time. Trainer Alan Brown has an 11% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 1.22 from 65 runs, and jockey Jack Nicholls, claiming 5lb, has a 24% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.1 from 21 rides. The horse has had two runs on good to soft ground without winning or placing and has no course form on record. While modest on his best days, the recent win cannot be ignored in a race of this nature.
The rest of the field
Iris DancerKTB Fit 47/100
Iris Dancer is rated 47 on KTB Fit. An 8-year-old with recent form figures of 061216, he drops in class and sports first-time headgear. The trainer has a 20% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 1.19 from 81 runs, and the jockey has a 13% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.86 from 384 rides. He has three wins from ten starts on good to soft with four placed efforts and has won here from nine starts out of 26. Course-and-distance winner who knows his way around this track.
AshenKTB Fit 46/100
Ashen is rated 46 on KTB Fit. The 4-year-old has recent form figures of 773134 and is usually held up, producing its effort late according to the limited evidence available. Trainer Jim Goldie has a 12% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 0.92 from 1219 runs, and jockey Rhys Elliott, claiming 5lb, has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.72 from 58 rides. The horse is unproven on good to soft ground having had no previous runs on it and has no course form on record.
KTB verdict
Ingleby Archie is the KTB Selection. He tops the Fit ratings, arrives with a recent win under his belt, has been placed both times at Hamilton and is handled by a trainer with a solid local record. His ability to handle good to soft ground adds to the appeal in a race where the pace is hard to gauge with confidence. The main dangers are Come On Over, who steps up in class with the benefit of first-time headgear and a jockey in form at the track, and Not Me, whose latest success cannot be dismissed. Iris Dancer's course record also demands respect in what looks a trappy little handicap.
KTB Selection Ingleby Archie
This is the narrative read of the 6:50 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Hamilton?
Iris Dancer has won here from nine starts out of 26.
Who is unproven on good to soft ground?
Eartha has had no runs on good to soft, while Ashen is also unproven on the surface.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Come On Over and Iris Dancer are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Hamilton in this field?
Tristan Davidson has a 20% strike rate at Hamilton from 81 runs.
What is the KTB Fit rating of the selection?
Ingleby Archie is rated 61 on KTB Fit.
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