6:50 Limerick
This 19-runner Twilight Summer Racing Handicap over a mile at Limerick on good to yielding ground looks competitive, with a cluster of fair performers around the 73-77 RPR mark. The KTB Fit Scores highlight Ohmali as the clear top pick on 63, ahead of Lady Arwen on 56, with Perfect Judgement, Jasmine Affanalis and Bucaneer's Spirit all on 52-53. Several runners are unproven on the surface while others return to a trip where they have shown ability, and the genuinely-run pace shape sets up a fair test.
How the race shapes up
With a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types in a genuinely-run race, the pace should be strong and even from the start. Out On Friday is the most obvious leader from his wide draw, with Genuine Jim, Hexagonal, Faire La Nouba and Ardeur among those who race prominently or on the pace. This sets up the race to be decided in the last two furlongs, posing the key question of whether the hold-up performers such as Ohmali and Lady Arwen can weave through the field in time or if the prominent runners will hold on.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ohmali KTB Selection63/100Ohmali is a fair performer who arrives in solid nick after two placed efforts this year and has already won over today's trip.
- 2Lady Arwen56/100Lady Arwen is a fair mare who won over this trip at Limerick last year and has shown enough on her better days to land a race of this type.
- 3Perfect Judgement53/100Fair performer who has dropped to a handy mark but has been below form on his last two starts.
- 4Jasmine Affanalis53/100Modest performer who has run to form on her last two starts and was a good second over this trip at this track last time.
- 5Bucaneer's Spirit52/100Bucaneer's Spirit is a fair performer who showed improved form when winning at this trip on good to yielding ground last season.
- 6Usuario Amigo52/100Fair performer who has shown some promise at this track with a third on his first visit but has been well held on his latest two starts here.
- 7Mythical Rock50/100Modest performer who has shown enough to be competitive at this level without winning.
- 8Genuine Jim49/100Genuine Jim has modest ability on his best days but arrives in poor form having failed to beat a rival in two starts this year.
- 9Java Wood49/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip from three attempts.
- 10Hexagonal49/100Hexagonal is a fair handicapper who has run to form on his last two starts and is proven at this trip having been placed twice without winning.
- 11Faire La Nouba48/100Faire La Nouba is a fair performer who has posted solid recent efforts including a second here over further.
- 12Out On Friday47/100Out On Friday is a modest 10-year-old with a recent second at this track that lifts him back to a competitive mark.
- 13Bella Colombia47/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives off a solid third over 7.5f at this track last month.
- 14Ardeur47/100Modest performer who has shown little for his new yard this year and was well held on his only previous run on this sort of ground.
- 15Friars Gate47/100Modest maiden who has failed to beat a rival home in three starts this year and was well held on his only previous run here.
- 16Notforalongtime46/100Modest performer with an RPR of 73 who has been consistent enough of late without winning.
- 17Robot Rock41/100Modest performer who has shown little for this yard in two starts since arriving from France.
- 18Mags40/100Mags is a modest performer who showed little on his only previous run at Limerick and arrives here on the back of a poor recent effort.
- 19Goofy Gander37/100Modest performer who showed little on her handicap debut at the Curragh in April when never counting after a slow start over 6f.
The contenders
Ohmali KTB Fit 63/100
Ohmali is a fair performer who arrives in solid nick after two placed efforts this year and has already won over today's trip. The yard fires at a strong 25% strike-rate at Limerick but the jockey is operating below par here with a 6% record from 129 rides. Drawn widest of all and with only two runs on this sort of ground neither of which produced a win or place, he has a bit to overcome. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right in a genuinely-run contest. His recent form of 418-02 and figures of RPR 76 and TS 72 underline his competitiveness at this level despite the negatives.
Lady Arwen KTB Fit 56/100
Lady Arwen is a fair mare who won over this trip at Limerick last year and has shown enough on her better days to land a race of this type. She has the benefit of a recent win at this track from just two visits and the jockey is operating above the yard's usual level here. The main query is how she will handle good to yielding ground having never raced on it before. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be looking to come from off the pace in what should be a strong-run race. Her form of 0-0016 and RPR of 76 keep her in the mix on her best efforts.
Perfect Judgement KTB Fit 53/100
Perfect Judgement is a fair performer who has dropped to a handy mark but has been below form on his last two starts. He has won three times at this trip though is unproven on good to yielding ground and steps back from 1m2f today. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here while his sole course run produced a placed effort. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment, he will need to find more from his recent -00477 form. His RPR of 76 suggests he remains capable at this level if the surface suits.
Jasmine Affanalis KTB Fit 53/100
Jasmine Affanalis is a modest performer who has run to form on her last two starts and was a good second over this trip at this track last time. She has placed twice from six attempts at a mile but her record on good to yielding ground is limited to a single unplaced run. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate at Limerick while the jockey is operating at a 5% rate here. Typically settling in midfield, she should be well positioned to make her move as the race develops. Her recent form of 1-0752 and figures of RPR 73 and TS 69 confirm she is competitive in this company.
Bucaneer's Spirit KTB Fit 52/100
Bucaneer's Spirit is a fair performer who showed improved form when winning at this trip on good to yielding ground last season. He has run only once at Limerick, finishing seventh, and both trainer and jockey have modest records here with strike rates of 6% and 7% respectively. The step back up to 1m looks suitable given his three wins from 15 starts at the distance and strong record on this ground. Typically settling in midfield, he should be comfortably placed in a race run at a genuine pace. His form of 00-163 and RPR of 76 keep him firmly in the picture.
The rest of the field
Usuario AmigoKTB Fit 52/100
Usuario Amigo is a fair performer who has shown some promise at this track with a third on his first visit but has been well held on his latest two starts here. Steps up to a mile for the first time today having been placed once at the distance without winning and the move looks a fair question given his recent efforts over shorter. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his RPR of 75 suggests he can be competitive but recent form of 93-977 tempers expectations.
Mythical RockKTB Fit 50/100
Mythical Rock is a modest performer who has shown enough to be competitive at this level without winning. Has placed twice on good to yielding ground and at this trip though remains winless in both, while his two runs at Limerick have produced no better than seventh. Drawn widest of all and recent form has been patchy, with an RPR of 73.
Genuine JimKTB Fit 49/100
Genuine Jim has modest ability on his best days but arrives in poor form having failed to beat a rival in two starts this year. He steps up to a trip he has won over before though that success came some time ago and his only run on this sort of ground was uncompetitive. The yard has a modest record here while the jockey fares better but overall this looks a tough ask from stall one, with an RPR of 68.
Java WoodKTB Fit 49/100
Java Wood is a modest performer who has won once over this trip from three attempts. First run at Limerick and unproven on good to yielding ground adds uncertainty though the recent form of 01-540 and solid RPR/TopSpeed figures of 73/72 suggest he remains competitive at this level. Trainer is still seeking a first winner from eight runs at the track while jockey Colin Keane has a fair 14% strike rate from 177 rides here.
HexagonalKTB Fit 49/100
Hexagonal is a fair handicapper who has run to form on his last two starts and is proven at this trip having been placed twice without winning. He has handled good to yielding ground and is well up to this level on ratings. The yard has an 8% strike rate at Limerick from a big sample while the jockey is 5% from 65 rides here, with an RPR of 75.
Faire La NoubaKTB Fit 48/100
Faire La Nouba is a fair performer who has posted solid recent efforts including a second here over further. She drops back to 1m today for the first time in a while having failed to win in two previous tries at the trip and her last run came over 2m. The yard has a poor record at Limerick and the jockey is also operating below par at the track, with an RPR of 77.
Out On FridayKTB Fit 47/100
Out On Friday is a modest 10-year-old with a recent second at this track that lifts him back to a competitive mark. He has been placed once from three runs on good to yielding ground and is dropping back to a trip where he has also shown some ability without winning. The yard has a poor strike rate at Limerick and the wide draw in stall 19 adds to the negatives, with an RPR of 74.
Bella ColombiaKTB Fit 47/100
Bella Colombia is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives off a solid third over 7.5f at this track last month. She has won over today's 1m trip in the past though stepping back up in distance now asks a fresh question, while the wide draw in stall 16 is far from ideal. Trainer and jockey both operate at a modest 8% strike rate here, with an RPR of 71.
ArdeurKTB Fit 47/100
Ardeur is a modest performer who has shown little for his new yard this year and was well held on his only previous run on this sort of ground. He has never won or placed in nine starts and looks up against it from the widest draw. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Limerick but that is the only positive here, with an RPR of 74.
Friars GateKTB Fit 47/100
Friars Gate is a modest maiden who has failed to beat a rival home in three starts this year and was well held on his only previous run here. First-time headgear is now fitted but the yard's modest 6% strike rate at Limerick offers little encouragement. Trip poses no fresh questions having already tried this distance four times without success, with an RPR of 74.
NotforalongtimeKTB Fit 46/100
Notforalongtime is a modest performer with an RPR of 73 who has been consistent enough of late without winning. Has won over today's 1m trip in the past but steps up in distance from 7f today and his three runs at Limerick have produced no wins or places. The trainer's 0% strike rate from seven runs at the track adds to the negatives on a day when the horse needs to find extra.
Robot RockKTB Fit 41/100
Robot Rock is a modest performer who has shown little for this yard in two starts since arriving from France. The big drop back to an untried 1m asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 17 is far from ideal. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate at Limerick from a big sample but the jockey’s 3% record from 258 rides is poor, with an RPR of 70.
MagsKTB Fit 40/100
Mags is a modest performer who showed little on his only previous run at Limerick and arrives here on the back of a poor recent effort. The yard has failed to land a blow in 41 attempts at the track while the 5lb claimer has a modest record from plenty of rides here. He has won over this trip but is unproven on good to yielding ground, with an RPR of 69.
Goofy GanderKTB Fit 37/100
Goofy Gander is a modest performer who showed little on her handicap debut at the Curragh in April when never counting after a slow start over 6f. Steps up to 1m today which looks a more suitable trip on pedigree as a half-sister to 1m4f Group 3 winner Trustyourinstinct. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Limerick though the wide draw in stall 13 is far from ideal, with an RPR of 63.
KTB verdict
Ohmali stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer in solid recent form with a win over the trip already to his name, he has the assistance of a yard that operates at a 25% strike rate at Limerick. While the widest draw, limited experience of good to yielding ground and the jockey's modest course record are not ideal, his ability and placed efforts this year make him the one to beat. Lady Arwen, with her course win over the trip, and Bucaneer's Spirit, who boasts a strong record on this ground, head the dangers, while Jasmine Affanalis is another who has shown recent placed form at the track.
KTB Selection Ohmali
This is the narrative read of the 6:50 Limerick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Limerick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Limerick in this field?
C Byrnes has a 15% strike rate at Limerick from 504 runs with Mythical Rock.
How many runners are unproven on good to yielding ground?
Eight runners have no runs on good to yielding ground: Lady Arwen, Perfect Judgement, Usuario Amigo, Java Wood, Friars Gate, Robot Rock, Mags and Goofy Gander.
Who is the most likely front-runner according to the run-styles?
Out On Friday tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence in that assessment.
Which horse has the best recent course form at Limerick?
Lady Arwen has a recent win at this track from just two visits, while Jasmine Affanalis was a good second here last time.
What is the highest RPR in the field?
Faire La Nouba has the highest RPR on 77, with several others on 76.
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