7:00 Limerick
The 7:00 at Limerick is a 1m50y maiden for three-year-olds on firm ground, a race that has attracted a field of seven with little previous experience between them. KTB's Fit ratings point to a clear top four, headed by Al Haarith on 61, with The Monday Club, Hello Stacia and Aghadrum Boy completing the principals on 57, 50 and 48 respectively. Most of the runners are unproven on firm ground, and several have no prior course form, so the KTB numbers suggest the race will be decided by which horse adapts quickest to the conditions and the stiff Limerick track.
How the race shapes up
With a small field and no obvious front-runner declared, the pace shape is expected to be on the steady side early on. The Monday Club from stall one and I Got To Go in stall two are likely to track the pace or race prominently, while Al Haarith from draw seven may be held up off the rail before making his move. The key question is whether the leaders can dictate a tempo that suits them or if the race will collapse late, allowing a stronger finisher to capitalise on the firm surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Al Haarith KTB Selection61/100
- 2The Monday Club57/100
- 3Hello Stacia50/100
- 4Aghadrum Boy48/100
- 5Mrs Lady Bella43/100
- 6Nottooshabby42/100
- 7I Got To Go40/100
The contenders
Al Haarith KTB Fit 61/100
Al Haarith comes into this with the highest KTB Fit rating of 61 and is the clear selection. His form figures of 343-0 show consistent placed efforts last year before a disappointing return, but the application of first-time headgear now may sharpen him up. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a solid 17% strike rate at Limerick with an A/E of 0.9 from 363 runs, while Dylan Browne McMonagle boasts a 23% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.29 from 73 rides. The colt is unproven on firm ground and has no course form, yet the market read of 1/6 in a field of seven underlines his standing. Run style suggests he will be held up, and connections will hope the headgear brings about the necessary improvement on this surface.
The Monday Club KTB Fit 57/100
The Monday Club holds a KTB Fit rating of 57 after just one run, a fifth-place finish that offered some promise. Brendan W Duke's 7% strike rate at Limerick comes with an A/E of 1.13 from 44 runs, though jockey Diego Lima has no record at the track for a neutral score. Like several others he is unproven on firm ground and has no course form to call upon. His low draw of one should allow him to race prominently or track the pace in a race where the shape may not be strong. Overall he looks a solid second string in a race where experience could prove important.
Hello Stacia KTB Fit 50/100
Hello Stacia is rated 50 on the KTB Fit scale and represents a trainer with no Limerick record from just one previous run overall. Nathan Crosse takes the ride with a 9% strike rate at the venue and an A/E of 0.94 from 94 rides. By Invincible Army, she comes from a sire with an 11% overall win rate from 1448 runners, yet she has no course win to her name. Her draw of three is decent, and she should be able to race handily. With so little previous form in the book this looks a watching brief, though the pedigree offers some hope on firm ground.
Aghadrum Boy KTB Fit 48/100
Aghadrum Boy is next on the KTB Fit ratings with a mark of 48. The P J F Murphy and Gavin Ryan combination has produced an 11/123 (9%) record with an A/E of 1.12 and positive LSP of +£17.96. Murphy's 8% strike rate at Limerick carries an A/E of 1.11 from 26 runs, while Ryan posts an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.77 from 53 rides. No going data is available for a neutral read, and he has no course win on record. From draw five he could be involved in the mid-division early, and while modest on paper he may find this maiden an opportunity to show something.
The rest of the field
Mrs Lady BellaKTB Fit 43/100
Mrs Lady Bella is rated 43 on KTB Fit. Seamus G O'Donnell has a 5% strike rate at Limerick with an A/E of 0.79 from 39 runs, and claiming jockey Jimmy Dalton has a 0% strike rate at the track from six rides with an A/E of 0. She is unproven on firm ground and ran once here, finishing 13th with no win or place.
NottooshabbyKTB Fit 42/100
Nottooshabby has a KTB Fit of 42. Patrick J Flynn's 10% strike rate at Limerick comes with an A/E of 0.76 from 548 runs, and Robyn Donaghue-Leahy has a 0% strike rate here from ten rides with an A/E of 0. By Awtaad, a sire with a 12% overall win rate from 2795 runners, she has no course win on record.
I Got To GoKTB Fit 40/100
I Got To Go is the lowest-rated on KTB Fit at 40. The Patrick T Foley and Luke McAteer partnership shows 8/83 (10%) with an A/E of 0.99 and +£10.98 LSP. Foley has a 5% strike rate at Limerick with an A/E of 0.57 from 37 runs, while McAteer posts 4% with an A/E of 0.48 from 73 rides. He is unproven on firm ground and has no course form.
KTB verdict
Al Haarith stands out at the head of the KTB Fit ratings and is duly named the selection. His placed form last season gives him the best foundation in the race, first-time headgear may help him bounce back from a poor return, and the Joseph Patrick O'Brien and Dylan Browne McMonagle team have strong enough Limerick figures to be taken seriously. The Monday Club looks the most obvious danger having shown something on debut and with a good draw to track the pace, while Hello Stacia and Aghadrum Boy are next best on the numbers but have far less to recommend them. The remainder of the field look modest on the KTB ratings and will need to improve markedly to feature.
KTB Selection Al Haarith
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Limerick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Limerick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on firm ground yet still tops the KTB Fit ratings?
Al Haarith has no runs on firm and is unproven on the ground, yet he leads the KTB Fit ratings on 61.
What is the trainer and jockey strike rate combination for the KTB selection at Limerick?
Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 17% strike rate at Limerick with an A/E of 0.9, while Dylan Browne McMonagle has a 23% strike rate with an A/E of 1.29.
Which runner has the best draw if the race is run at a steady pace?
The Monday Club has draw 1 and is likely to track the pace or race prominently given the expected steady shape.
How many of the seven runners have no course form on record?
Five runners have no course form on record: Al Haarith, The Monday Club, Hello Stacia, Aghadrum Boy and I Got To Go.
What headgear is Al Haarith wearing for the first time?
Al Haarith is fitted with first-time headgear.
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