7:00 Windsor
This Class 3 Fitzdares Sprint Series Qualifier Handicap over 6f12y at Windsor on good to firm ground features a competitive field of 14. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Durham Castle heading the numbers on 63, followed closely by Alpha Magic on 58 and Uncle Don on 56. Several runners have strong course connections or recent form, though trainer and jockey course records vary markedly and the wide draws for some could prove influential.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a truly run race with a good mix of front-runners and prominent racers likely to contest the lead early. Durham Castle from stall 4 and Indian Run from stall 3 are expected to be forward, while Fleetwater from the inside draw and Another Abbot should also be prominent. The key question is whether the high-drawn runners such as Alpha Magic in 10 and Uncle Don in 11 can overcome the pace and track position to get involved in the finish.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Durham Castle KTB Selection63/100Useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Windsor and has scored three times at this trip from seven starts.
- 2Alpha Magic58/100Alpha Magic is a fair performer who won twice over this trip last season before a couple of modest efforts at 5f this year.
- 3Uncle Don56/100Uncle Don is a fair performer who has been competitive without winning in recent starts and arrives in form after a second at this track last time.
- 4Another Abbot55/100Another Abbot is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a recent win.
- 5Shiplake54/100Useful performer who has run well without winning in two starts at Windsor.
- 6Fleetwater53/100Fleetwater is a fair performer who has won twice over this trip and shown his liking for Good to Firm ground with two wins and a further two places from four st…
- 7Righthere Rightnow53/100Fair performer who has been below form in his last two starts after a solid second earlier this season.
- 8Sturlasson51/100Sturlasson is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time, with recent form figures of 4-5294 showing steady but unspectacular…
- 9Diligently51/100Diligently is a fair sort who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 10Rajaking48/100Rajaking is a fair sort who has run well here in the past, winning once from two visits to Windsor.
- 11Indian Run47/100Indian Run is a fair performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has looked out of sorts on his last two starts.
- 12Amazonian Dream46/100Amazonian Dream is a modest performer who has been around the block with 50 runs in the last year and recent form that has been largely hit and miss.
- 13Toolatetonegotiate44/100Toolatetonegotiate is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 334321 and looks ready to go well again from a decent draw.
- 14Change Sings43/100Fair performer who has shown up well around here without winning, finishing second on his most recent visit to Windsor.
The contenders
Durham Castle KTB Fit 63/100
Durham Castle is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Windsor and has scored three times at this trip from seven starts. He returns from a break off the back of a fair fifth last time and acts on good to firm ground. The Crisford yard hold a solid 22% strike rate here from 93 runs. Harry Davies takes the ride with the pair combining from a handy draw in stall 4. Recent form of 1/71-5 underlines his ability to go well fresh. Overall this looks a suitable opportunity for the selection.
Alpha Magic KTB Fit 58/100
Alpha Magic is a fair performer who won twice over this trip last season before a couple of modest efforts at 5f this year. He steps back up in distance now which should suit having scored twice from six starts at 6f. The Easterby yard have a solid 17% strike rate at Windsor while Fallon is operating close to expectations with his 14% record here. Recent form reads 010-48 and he remains competitive on good to firm having been placed once from two starts on the surface. From draw 10 he will need to be ridden positively to overcome the pace shape.
Uncle Don KTB Fit 56/100
Uncle Don is a fair performer who has been competitive without winning in recent starts and arrives in form after a second at this track last time. He has placed twice from three runs on good to firm and has three placed efforts from ten at this trip though he has never won at either. The yard's modest 10 percent strike rate from 217 runs at Windsor is a negative. Jack Callan takes off 3lb from stall 11 and the drop in class may help. Course form of a second on his only visit adds interest but the trainer-jockey combination has shown 0/12 together.
Another Abbot KTB Fit 55/100
Another Abbot is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a recent win. He has solid form on good to firm ground with three wins from six runs at this trip and the yard and jockey both have strong records at Windsor. His only previous run here was modest though and he will need to improve on that. William Haggas and Tom Marquand team up with a 22% strike rate between them on the card and the trainer posts 20% at the track. Stepping up in class from a middle draw he remains a major player on his best efforts.
Shiplake KTB Fit 54/100
Shiplake is a useful performer who has run well without winning in two starts at Windsor. Dropping back to 6f is a plus as he has won at the trip from six attempts, though his sole run on good to firm ground brought no joy. Trainer and jockey both operate below the course average here. Recent form of 61-109 shows two wins last season but a lesser effort on his most recent start. David Egan rides from draw 9 and the placed course form of third and fourth gives him a foothold in the race.
The rest of the field
FleetwaterKTB Fit 53/100
Fleetwater is a fair performer who has won twice over this trip and shown his liking for Good to Firm ground with two wins and a further two places from four starts. He has won two of his five runs at Windsor and his recent form of 0-2623 suggests he remains competitive at this level. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate from 481 runs at the track is a negative though the jockey has a solid record here.
Righthere RightnowKTB Fit 53/100
Righthere Rightnow is a fair performer who has been below form in his last two starts after a solid second earlier this season. He drops back to 6f having been placed at the trip without winning and has shown he can be competitive on good to firm. Trainer Richard Spencer has a 20% strike rate at Windsor from 51 runs while Saffie Osborne takes the ride.
SturlassonKTB Fit 51/100
Sturlasson is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time, with recent form figures of 4-5294 showing steady but unspectacular efforts. He has no previous experience at Windsor and his only run on good to firm ground produced no win or place, while he has failed to land a blow in three starts at this trip. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate from 95 runs at the track adds another negative.
DiligentlyKTB Fit 51/100
Diligently is a fair sort who has won over this trip and at this track. He has posted two placed efforts from six runs on good to firm and looks to have the right connections with Clive Cox and David Probert both having solid strike rates here. Wide draw in stall 14 could make things tougher from a handicapping point of view.
RajakingKTB Fit 48/100
Rajaking is a fair sort who has run well here in the past, winning once from two visits to Windsor. He has shown consistent placed form at this trip and handles good to firm ground, though his latest effort was below par. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate from 14 runs at the track is a slight negative.
Indian RunKTB Fit 47/100
Indian Run is a fair performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has looked out of sorts on his last two starts. He has shown some ability at this track without ever threatening to win and his record on good to firm is modest with just one success from nine attempts. The trip is proven, though the yard's modest strike rate at Windsor offers little encouragement.
Amazonian DreamKTB Fit 46/100
Amazonian Dream is a modest performer who has been around the block with 50 runs in the last year and recent form that has been largely hit and miss. He has won three times at this track from 22 runs and also has a solid record at the trip with five wins from 44 starts plus three wins from 19 on good to firm. The yard's 10 percent strike rate from 791 runs at Windsor is nothing to shout about but the horse's course connections and consistent ratings give this assessment high confidence.
ToolatetonegotiateKTB Fit 44/100
Toolatetonegotiate is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with form figures of 334321 and looks ready to go well again from a decent draw. He has shown some ability on good to firm ground with a win and four places from six runs though his only previous try at this trip brought no joy. The trainer has only had one runner at Windsor so that remains an unknown.
Change SingsKTB Fit 43/100
Change Sings is a fair performer who has shown up well around here without winning, finishing second on his most recent visit to Windsor. He has four wins over this trip on his record and has been competitive on good to firm, though he remains winless on the surface from five starts. The yard's modest 11 percent strike rate at the track suggests he will need to improve on recent efforts to get involved.
KTB verdict
Durham Castle is the KTB Selection. He won on his sole previous visit to Windsor, has three wins at this trip from seven starts overall, and returns from a break off a fair fifth last time while acting on good to firm. The Crisford yard's 22% strike rate at the track from 93 runs adds strong backing. Main dangers are Another Abbot, who arrives in decent nick after a recent win with the Haggas-Marquand team in strong form here, and Uncle Don, who is in good heart after a second at the track last time despite the yard's modest course record.
KTB Selection Durham Castle
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course form at Windsor?
Durham Castle won on his only previous visit to Windsor. Uncle Don was second on his only run here and Amazonian Dream has won three times from 22 starts at the track.
How does the good to firm going affect the leading contenders?
Durham Castle has one win from one run on good to firm. Another Abbot has two wins from six on the surface, Fleetwater two wins from four, and Uncle Don has placed twice from three starts on good to firm.
What does the pace shape suggest for the race?
A good mix of front-runners and prominent racers points to a truly run race. Forward runners such as Durham Castle, Indian Run, Fleetwater and Another Abbot are likely to set or contest the pace early.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Windsor in this field?
The Crisford yard have a 22% strike rate at Windsor from 93 runs. Richard Spencer posts 20%, William Haggas 20% and the Easterbys 17%. Several others including Robert Cowell and Clive Cox sit around 10-14%.
How significant are the wide draws for the leading contenders?
Alpha Magic is in stall 10 and Uncle Don in stall 11, which could make it harder to overcome the pace. Diligently in stall 14 faces the widest draw of all while the selection Durham Castle has a more favourable draw in stall 4.
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