7:00 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 4 EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 7f36y at Wolverhampton on standard ground brings together an 11-strong field of two-year-olds, several of whom are making their first or second appearances. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 53 and 40, underlining how little is known about many of these runners and how open the race appears on paper. Jazzy Blue tops the KTB rankings on the back of placed form over this trip while several debutants and modest performers make up the remainder of the line-up.
How the race shapes up
With a field that includes several newcomers and lightly raced types the early pace is unlikely to be frantic, though runners such as Consultation, who has shown a tendency to race prominently, and Jazzy Blue from a wide draw may look to secure a forward position. The overall pace shape points towards a race that could be decided from mid-race onwards as the field stretches out up the straight. The key question is whether any of the debutants can show the necessary speed and tractability from the stalls to challenge those with racecourse experience.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Jazzy Blue KTB Selection53/100Modest performer who has shown some ability in three runs, finishing placed once over this trip.
- 2Miss You Nights51/100Miss You Nights ran green and finished last of eight on her 6f debut.
- 3Senorita Luna50/100Senorita Luna is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a steady 16% strike rate here from a huge sample.
- 4Pride's Queen49/100Pride's Queen showed little at short prices on debut then ran no better when stepped up to this trip at Kempton.
- 5Kiss Cam48/100Kiss Cam has only one run to go on so any assessment has to be tentative.
- 6Syndicale46/100Syndicale is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 13 percent strike rate here from a huge sample of nearly a thousand runners.
- 7Perfect Love46/100Perfect Love is a debutant with low data confidence so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background plus the yard's record.
- 8Serenity Bay45/100Serenity Bay has shown little in two starts so far, finishing fifth then last.
- 9Peacock's Way45/100Peacock's Way is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 10Musical Force41/100Musical Force showed little on debut over 6f and now steps up in trip for only a second start.
- 11Consultation40/100Modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three runs to date, finishing third on his latest start.
The contenders
Jazzy Blue KTB Fit 53/100
Jazzy Blue is a modest performer who has shown some ability in three runs, finishing placed once over this trip. She now steps up from 6f which looks a fair question on pedigree and the placed effort. The Charlie Fellowes yard has a 13% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a big sample of 223 runs while Paddy Bradley brings a 13% strike rate and an A/E of 1.16 from 202 rides at the track. Unproven on standard ground having had no previous runs on it and with no course form to speak of, she is drawn in stall 10. Stepping up in class, she remains the KTB selection despite the questions still to be answered from her wide draw.
Miss You Nights KTB Fit 51/100
Miss You Nights ran green and finished last of eight on her 6f debut. She now steps up to 7f which poses a fresh question and the small sample means little else can be read into her ability or preferences. Jack Channon has a solid 16% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 85 runs and George Bass has an 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.99 from 153 rides at the track. Unproven on standard ground with no course form on record, she is drawn in stall 7. With only one run to go on, any assessment has to remain guarded.
Senorita Luna KTB Fit 50/100
Senorita Luna is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a steady 16% strike rate here from a huge sample of 1305 runs. The Marco Botti stable knows the track well enough though the low data confidence means any assessment rests almost entirely on her sales and pedigree background, being by Supremacy. Benoit de la Sayette takes the ride and has a 13% strike rate with an A/E of 0.9 from 137 rides at Wolverhampton. With no course win on record and this looking a speculative debut, the filly has to be judged largely on what the trainer can produce first time.
Pride's Queen KTB Fit 49/100
Pride's Queen showed little at short prices on debut then ran no better when stepped up to this trip at Kempton. The first-time headgear is an obvious try for a yard that does well enough at Wolverhampton with a 16% strike rate from 1305 runs. Jack Gilligan has an 11% strike rate and an A/E of 0.88 from 35 rides at the track. Unproven on standard ground with no course form on record and dropping in class, she remains lightly raced and open to improvement but the bare form is modest.
Kiss Cam KTB Fit 48/100
Kiss Cam has only one run to go on so any assessment has to be tentative. The Richard Hughes yard posts a solid 17% strike rate here from a big sample of 502 runs. Donagh Murphy takes the ride with a 10% strike rate and an A/E of 0.66 from 30 rides at Wolverhampton. Unproven on standard ground with no course form on record and drawn in stall 2, she steps up from 6f to 7f which asks a new question of a horse whose stamina is still untested.
The rest of the field
SyndicaleKTB Fit 46/100
Syndicale is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 13% strike rate here from a huge sample of nearly a thousand runs. The trainer and jockey combination of K R Burke and Clifford Lee brings plenty of firepower though with low data confidence and no racecourse evidence yet the form claims rest entirely on pedigree and sales background.
Perfect LoveKTB Fit 46/100
Perfect Love is a debutant with low data confidence so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background plus the yard's record. Michael Appleby has an 11% strike rate from 1856 runs at Wolverhampton and Alistair Rawlinson takes the ride from stall four on this standard going seven-furlong task.
Serenity BayKTB Fit 45/100
Serenity Bay has shown little in two starts so far, finishing fifth then last. The Ed Dunlop yard posts a 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a big sample. Trip looks no better than fair on the one run at this distance and the small amount of form overall means this remains guesswork.
Peacock's WayKTB Fit 45/100
Peacock's Way is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The sales and pedigree background offers the only real clues here and the trainer's modest 9% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a large sample suggests limited encouragement from the yard. Connections will be hoping the colt can show something on debut but this looks like a watching brief.
Musical ForceKTB Fit 41/100
Musical Force showed little on debut over 6f and now steps up in trip for only a second start. The Harry Eustace yard's modest 5% strike rate at Wolverhampton offers no encouragement. With so little known this one has to be treated with real caution.
ConsultationKTB Fit 40/100
Consultation is a modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three runs to date, finishing third on his latest start. He was well held when fifth on his only previous visit here and steps up from 6f to an untried 7f today. Trainer James Fanshawe has a 16% strike rate from 488 runs at Wolverhampton.
KTB verdict
Jazzy Blue tops the KTB Fit scores and is taken as the selection. She has shown some ability in three runs, including a placed effort over this trip, and represents a trainer with a solid record at Wolverhampton. The step up from 6f poses a fair question but she has more substance to her form than most of her rivals. The main dangers are the well-bred newcomer Syndicale from the powerful Burke stable and Senorita Luna who hails from a yard that knows the track inside out. Consultation brings the most experience but has been modest and well held on his only previous visit to Wolverhampton.
KTB Selection Jazzy Blue
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score in the race?
Jazzy Blue with a KTB Fit of 53/100.
How many times has Jazzy Blue been placed from her three starts?
Once, from recent form figures of 625.
What is the trainer strike rate at Wolverhampton for the yard of Syndicale?
13% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 952 runs.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Pride's Queen.
Which horse in the field has course form at Wolverhampton?
Consultation, who has run here once and finished fifth.
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