7:03 Leopardstown
The Double First Stables Irish EBF Nasrullah Handicap is a competitive Premier Handicap over 1m1f at Leopardstown on good to firm ground. A field of 12 features several course winners and useful performers, with the KTB Fit Scores tightly bunched between 57 and 39. The top five in the KTB ranking are separated by just two points, underlining a race where trainer and jockey track records, trip fitness and draw will all play significant parts.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a truly-run contest with several prominent runners likely to contest the lead. Nakasero from stall 2 and Playin Cool from stall 1 can go forward early, while Jamestown and Harmani are drawn wide and may have to work to get involved. The key question is whether the prominent types can dictate matters or if the race will fall to a closer such as the selection or one of the hold-up performers in what looks an even middle-distance handicap.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Nakasero57/100Nakasero is a fair sort who has won over this trip and on good to firm ground.
- 2Diego El Queso KTB Selection57/100Useful sort who has won his only start here and arrives in decent nick after two placed efforts this year.
- 3Lord Massusus56/100Useful performer who has won twice at this track from 14 runs and arrives in reasonable form.
- 4Cloud Seeker56/100Useful performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and handles good to firm ground.
- 5Jamestown55/100Useful performer who arrives in solid form after a win and two placed efforts from his last three starts.
- 6Harmani53/100Harmani is a fair 3 year old with solid placed form earlier this season before a lesser effort last time up in trip.
- 7Playin Cool51/100Playin Cool is a fair sort who showed his best form when winning over this trip here last year and has run creditably in stronger company since.
- 8Thread Of Gold49/100Fair performer who showed promise when winning on debut but has failed to build on it in two starts since.
- 9Retracement48/100Fair performer who ran poorly over 1m4f last time and now drops back in trip to 1m1f where he has been beaten on his only previous try.
- 10Harana48/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placings from four starts.
- 11Slieve Binnian46/100Slieve Binnian is a fair performer who has won at this track and at today's trip.
- 12Anvika39/100Modest performer who has been placed twice from six runs at Leopardstown without winning.
The contenders
Nakasero KTB Fit 57/100
Nakasero is a fair sort who has won over this trip and on good to firm ground. He has also won at Leopardstown from six runs here though his recent form has been patchy and he steps back in trip from 1m4f. The trainer's modest 8 percent strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's useful 14 percent record from only seven rides. From a low draw he is likely to be prominent early in what could be a strongly-run race. His placed effort on good to firm offers encouragement on the forecast surface and he cannot be entirely dismissed despite the recent inconsistency.
Diego El Queso KTB Fit 57/100
Diego El Queso is a useful sort who has won his only start here and arrives in decent nick after two placed efforts this year. The drop back to 1m1f asks a fresh question having last run over further. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track though the yard is operating below its usual strike rate here. Colin Keane takes the ride on a horse who showed his liking for the course when successful on his sole visit. With a middle draw he should be able to obtain a workable position and his progressive profile makes him the one to beat.
Lord Massusus KTB Fit 56/100
Lord Massusus is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from 14 runs and arrives in reasonable form. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here and the stable is operating below its usual level. He steps up in trip today having been well held over a mile last time and is only placed once from two runs on good to firm. Sam Coen claims 5lb which could prove useful in a competitive handicap. Twice a course winner, he knows his way around Leopardstown and that local knowledge may help him overcome the modest yard and rider figures.
Cloud Seeker KTB Fit 56/100
Cloud Seeker is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and handles good to firm ground. Dropping back from 1m4f to 1m1f asks a fresh question though he has placed without winning at today's trip. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here. The combination of course record and going suitability gives him a solid profile for this contest. Andrew Slattery rides his own runner and will be hoping the return to a shorter trip sparks a revival on ground he likes.
Jamestown KTB Fit 55/100
Jamestown is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after a win and two placed efforts from his last three starts. The step up to 1m1f asks a fresh question and the wide draw in stall 11 is far from ideal. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Leopardstown contrasts with the jockey's stronger 10% record at the track. Luke McAteer is a positive booking and the colt's progressive form cannot be ignored. Whether he can overcome the wide draw in what may be a strongly-run race remains to be seen but he enters the reckoning on recent efforts.
The rest of the field
HarmaniKTB Fit 53/100
Harmani is a fair 3 year old with solid placed form earlier this season before a lesser effort last time up in trip. Dropping back to an untried 1m1f poses a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 12 is far from ideal on this track. The trainer holds an 11 percent strike rate here from a huge sample and the claiming jockey has a respectable record from limited rides.
Playin CoolKTB Fit 51/100
Playin Cool is a fair sort who showed his best form when winning over this trip here last year and has run creditably in stronger company since. He steps back up in distance from 1m today having already won once at 1m1f. The trainer has a 7% strike rate from 87 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey is on 8% from 578 rides at the track.
Thread Of GoldKTB Fit 49/100
Thread Of Gold is a fair performer who showed promise when winning on debut but has failed to build on it in two starts since. Ran no better than seventh on her only visit to this track and steps up in trip today having been beaten at this distance on her latest outing. Trainer has a solid 17% strike rate here from a huge volume of runners while the jockey operates at 8%.
RetracementKTB Fit 48/100
Retracement is a fair performer who ran poorly over 1m4f last time and now drops back in trip to 1m1f where he has been beaten on his only previous try. He showed useful form on good to firm earlier in his career but was well held on his only visit to Leopardstown. First-time headgear is now applied while both trainer and jockey have modest records at this track.
HaranaKTB Fit 48/100
Harana is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placings from four starts. Drops back in trip today having last run over further and has won at this distance before though was only fifth of 11 when tried here on his sole previous visit to Leopardstown. Trainer has a solid 17% strike rate at the track while the jockey operates at 8%.
Slieve BinnianKTB Fit 46/100
Slieve Binnian is a fair performer who has won at this track and at today's trip. Recent form is poor with a string of below-par efforts and the yard's 4% strike rate at Leopardstown offers little encouragement. Jockey is similarly modest here at 4% from over 400 rides while the step back up in trip asks a fresh question after his latest run over a mile.
AnvikaKTB Fit 39/100
Anvika is a modest performer who has been placed twice from six runs at Leopardstown without winning. Recent form has been patchy but she did finish third last time and has shown she can handle this trip. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here while she has only run once on good to firm ground.
KTB verdict
Diego El Queso looks the pick on balance. A useful performer who has already won on his only visit to Leopardstown, he arrives in decent nick after two placed efforts this season and the booking of Colin Keane is a positive. The drop back to 1m1f is a new question but his course record and the yard's solid if slightly below-par record at the track give him strong claims. Nakasero, Lord Massusus and Cloud Seeker all have course-winning form and cannot be ruled out, while Jamestown represents progressive 3yo form but must overcome a wide draw.
KTB Selection Diego El Queso
This is the narrative read of the 7:03 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won both at Leopardstown and over today's trip?
Nakasero has won over this trip and at Leopardstown from six runs here.
What is the course record of the KTB Selection?
Diego El Queso has won his only start here.
Which runner is trying first-time headgear?
Retracement is fitted with first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest jockey track record at Leopardstown among the principals?
Conor Cusack has a 14% strike rate at Leopardstown from only seven rides.
Which horse faces the widest draw in the field?
Harmani is drawn in stall 12.
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