7:16 Southwell (AW)
This Class 5 handicap division at Southwell over 6f17y on standard going brings together a field of ten modest performers where the KTB Fit Scores top out at 64 for the selection. The race lacks an obvious front-runner, and recent form across the runners is generally patchy with several showing inconsistent results this season. Trainer and jockey combinations at the track vary markedly, with some holding above-average records that could prove influential in what looks a competitive but unspectacular affair.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay. Ziggy's Condor is the one most likely to race prominently from draw 1, while the remainder of the field is dominated by hold-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the prominent runner can dictate matters or whether the race will fall into the lap of a well-timed closer as the field bunches up in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ziggy's Condor KTB Selection64/100Modest performer who has won once in six runs at this track and also has three wins at today's trip from 23 attempts.
- 2Miraculous53/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of mid-pack finishes.
- 3Showtime Mahomes52/100Modest performer who has won twice at Southwell from seven runs and also has three wins at this trip from 36 attempts.
- 4Pickersgill52/100Modest performer who has won once from three runs at Southwell and also holds a win on this standard surface.
- 5Moostar50/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of six placed efforts from his last eight starts.
- 6Hectic48/100Modest performer who has won once in two runs at Southwell and also has a win on standard ground.
- 7Daytona Lady48/100Modest performer who has won twice at Southwell from 13 starts and also holds a solid record at today's trip with six wins from 45 attempts.
- 8Cairdeas47/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning.
- 9Ottawa43/100Modest performer who has won once at this track and once at today's trip.
- 10Court Drive41/100Modest performer who has won three times at this trip but looks nothing special on recent form and has failed to place in two runs here.
The contenders
Ziggy's Condor KTB Fit 64/100
Ziggy's Condor is a modest performer who has won once in six runs at Southwell and also has three wins at today's trip from 23 attempts. He has been consistent enough on the all-weather with two wins and nine places from 18 starts on standard ground, though his recent form of 6450U3 is a bit patchy. Trainer Adam Kirby has a strong 33% strike-rate here from nine runs while James Doyle is a 15% rider at Southwell from 204 attempts, and first-time headgear is now fitted. From draw 1 he is the one most likely to race handily, on or close to the lead, which should be an advantage given the lack of obvious pace on. The combination of course experience, surface suitability and the trainer's record at the venue make him the one to beat.
Miraculous KTB Fit 53/100
Miraculous is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of mid-pack finishes. He has run just once at Southwell and was well beaten, though the yard’s 10% strike-rate from 814 runs here and the jockey’s 11% from 506 rides suggest they know their way around the track. Stepping back up to a trip at which he has won twice, he has shown he handles the standard surface. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking for the pace to collapse in front in this steadily-run affair. Dropping in class is another plus though his overall profile this season remains modest.
Showtime Mahomes KTB Fit 52/100
Showtime Mahomes is a modest performer who has won twice at Southwell from seven runs and also has three wins at this trip from 36 attempts. He has shown bits of form this year but his recent efforts have been poor and he is now 0-8 on this surface this season. Trainer Grant Tuer has a 16% strike rate at Southwell from 168 runs with an A/E of 1.27 while jockey Oliver Stammers posts a 13% record from 137 rides with an A/E of 1.02. Usually held up, he will be waiting to pounce late in what is likely to be a tactical race. Course winner who cannot be entirely dismissed on his best days despite the recent poor efforts.
Pickersgill KTB Fit 52/100
Pickersgill is a modest performer who has won once from three runs at Southwell and also holds a win on this standard surface. Recent form of 175272 shows a mixed bag with a second last time but he can blow hot and cold. Trainer Iain Jardine has a solid 15% strike rate here from 218 runs while jockey Andrew Mullen posts an 11% record from over a thousand rides at the track. Usually held up, he will need the race to fall right given the steadily-run shape. From a wide draw of 10 he faces the task of coming from the back in a race where being handy looks an advantage.
Moostar KTB Fit 50/100
Moostar is a modest performer with a solid recent record of six placed efforts from his last eight starts. He has run twice here without success yet remains competitive on standard going and is dropping back to a trip he has won over in the past. First-time headgear is now tried while both trainer and jockey have respectable records at Southwell, James Owen recording 17% from 220 runs and Silvestre De Sousa 18% from 382 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well placed to make a move in a steadily-run race. The placed form gives him a solid look though he still lacks a win on the all-weather.
The rest of the field
HecticKTB Fit 48/100
Hectic is a modest performer who has won once in two runs at Southwell and also has a win on standard ground. He drops back to his winning trip today having been well held over 7f last time and now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer's modest record here is offset by the jockey's solid 11% strike rate from 168 rides at the track.
Daytona LadyKTB Fit 48/100
Daytona Lady is a modest performer who has won twice at Southwell from 13 starts and also holds a solid record at today's trip with six wins from 45 attempts. She has shown inconsistent form of late but the first-time headgear could sharpen her up. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates here on the all-weather.
CairdeasKTB Fit 47/100
Cairdeas is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. He has run well over this trip on a few occasions but showed little on his only visit here and has failed to place in three runs on standard ground. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Southwell.
OttawaKTB Fit 43/100
Ottawa is a modest performer who has won once at this track and once at today's trip. Recent form has been patchy and the yard's modest record here adds no confidence. Tudhope's solid 17% strike-rate at Southwell is the main positive.
Court DriveKTB Fit 41/100
Court Drive is a modest performer who has won three times at this trip but looks nothing special on recent form and has failed to place in two runs here. The yard's modest 10% strike-rate at Southwell is backed by a large sample while the jockey has a solid 16% record from his 55 rides at the track. First-time headgear is now fitted and he has placed five times on this surface.
KTB verdict
Ziggy's Condor stands out as the KTB Selection. A course winner who has shown consistent enough form on the all-weather and now tries first-time headgear from an ideal draw, he is the one who can race handily in a race that lacks an obvious leader. The steadily-run shape should suit his prominent style while the trainer's excellent record at Southwell adds further confidence. Main dangers are likely to come from Miraculous and Pickersgill if they can time their runs from the back, along with the course record of Showtime Mahomes, but the selection looks to hold the best blend of factors.
KTB Selection Ziggy's Condor
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 6 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ziggy's Condor | 3/1 | William Hill |
| Miraculous | 9/2 | William Hill |
| Showtime Mahomes | 20/1 | Midnite |
| Pickersgill | 7/2 | William Hill |
| Moostar | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Hectic | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Daytona Lady | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Cairdeas | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Ottawa | 25/1 | Bet Victor |
| Court Drive | 13/2 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 7:16 Southwell (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Southwell (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is first-time headgear significant for several runners?
First-time headgear is fitted on Ziggy's Condor, Hectic, Daytona Lady, Court Drive and Moostar in a race where many have shown patchy or inconsistent recent form.
Which horse is best placed to take advantage of the lack of early pace?
Ziggy's Condor, who usually races handily from draw 1, is the one most likely to be prominent in a steadily-run, tactical affair.
How does the class drop affect Miraculous and Hectic?
Both Miraculous and Hectic are dropping in class, which is noted as a positive for each modest performer.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Southwell in this field?
Adam Kirby has a 33% strike rate at Southwell from nine runs, the highest in the race.
Which jockey has the most experience at Southwell among the runners?
Andrew Mullen has 1114 rides at Southwell with an 11% strike rate, the largest sample among the jockeys.
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