7:18 Leopardstown
The 7:18 at Leopardstown is a nine-runner Dublin To Bahrain Race Series Handicap over 1m1f on good ground. It features a mix of fair and modest performers, several of whom are trying the trip for the first time while sporting first-time headgear. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 54 and 41, underlining a competitive rather than standout field where trainer form at the track and the effectiveness of new headgear could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with low confidence, pointing to a possible front-runner but on limited evidence. Mr Ballynonty is the only horse with a noted front-running style and could attempt to make the running from draw seven, while the bulk of the field are held-up types including Glyndwr and Wild Sapphire. This setup poses the key question of whether a slow early gallop will allow the prominent runners to dictate or whether the closers can time their efforts effectively in a race lacking a confirmed strong pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Apercu KTB Selection54/100Useful performer who has been running to a similar level this year without winning.
- 2Kilcrea Rock53/100Fair performer who has run well over this course twice, finishing second on both occasions.
- 3Manton Bay52/100Manton Bay is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year, finishing third in both his last two starts.
- 4Dark Viper50/100Fair performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and arrives in reasonable form having finished second last time.
- 5Eastern Peace49/100Modest performer who has shown some ability at this track, finishing third here on his penultimate start.
- 6Glyndwr49/100Glyndwr is a fair performer who has won twice on the all-weather but has struggled on turf of late, finishing well down the field in three starts this season.
- 7Wild Sapphire49/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year yet has failed to win in seven starts.
- 8Harmani49/100Harmani is a fair 3-year-old with solid placed form earlier this season but has finished down the field on both starts since.
- 9Mr Ballynonty41/100Fair performer who has shown a mix of promise and disappointment in three starts, finishing a fair third on debut before two lesser efforts.
The contenders
Apercu KTB Fit 54/100
Apercu is a useful performer who has been running to a similar level this year without winning. He drops back in trip today having been placed once at this distance, while the first-time headgear is an interesting addition after a solid second last time out. The six-year-old has a 1-7 record on good ground with three places and lines up from draw five. Trainer A Oliver has a 5% strike rate at Leopardstown from 346 runs with an A/E of 0.61, which is a negative, though the jockey-trainer combination shows a 14% strike rate overall with an A/E of 1.06 and positive LSP of +£128.44. W J Lee has a 9% strike rate at the track from 846 rides with an A/E of 0.81. Recent form reads 5-4802.
Kilcrea Rock KTB Fit 53/100
Kilcrea Rock is a fair performer who has run well over this course twice, finishing second on both occasions. He drops back in trip today having last been seen over further, while the first-time headgear is an unknown. The four-year-old has been placed once from four runs on good ground and holds a strong course record of 2-2-7 from three starts at Leopardstown. Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 13% strike rate at the track from 1047 runs with an A/E of 0.89, and the trainer-jockey partnership posts a 19% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.90. Dylan Browne McMonagle has a 13% strike rate at Leopardstown from 280 rides with an A/E of 0.91. Recent form reads 43-251.
Manton Bay KTB Fit 52/100
Manton Bay is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year, finishing third in both his last two starts. He has already tried this trip once without success and the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Leopardstown from 383 runs with an A/E of 0.5 adds a negative. The three-year-old has been placed once from two runs on good ground, though the small sample leaves suitability unknown. He lines up from draw nine with recent form of 61-328. Trainer David Marnane and jockey Luke McAteer combine with a 13% strike rate overall and an A/E of 1.04, while the jockey has a 10% strike rate at the track from 169 rides with an A/E of 1.1.
Dark Viper KTB Fit 50/100
Dark Viper is a fair performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and arrives in reasonable form having finished second last time. He steps up in trip today having been mostly campaigned over a mile, which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is now tried. The five-year-old has a 1-8 record on good ground with three places and holds a strong course record of two wins from five starts. Trainer Mrs John Harrington has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1827 runs with an A/E of 0.83, which is modest, though the trainer-jockey partnership shows a 12% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.81. Shane Foley has an 11% strike rate at the track from 1003 rides with an A/E of 0.92. Recent form reads 068852.
The rest of the field
Eastern PeaceKTB Fit 49/100
Eastern Peace is a modest performer who has shown some ability at this track, finishing third here on his penultimate start. He ran poorly on his latest visit to Leopardstown though and drops back in trip today having last been seen over a mile and a half, which poses a fresh question. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 106 runs at the course.
GlyndwrKTB Fit 49/100
Glyndwr is a fair performer who has won twice on the all-weather but has struggled on turf of late, finishing well down the field in three starts this season. He has been beaten a long way on all four visits to Leopardstown and has never won on good ground despite placing twice from ten attempts. Stepping up to 1m1f for the first time asks a fresh question while the yard's 10% strike-rate at the track is respectable. Usually held up and produces its effort late.
Wild SapphireKTB Fit 49/100
Wild Sapphire is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year yet has failed to win in seven starts. Has course experience but no joy here so far and is now stepping up in trip for the first time while wearing headgear. Trainer has a solid 17% strike rate at Leopardstown. Usually held up and produces its effort late.
HarmaniKTB Fit 49/100
Harmani is a fair 3-year-old with solid placed form earlier this season but has finished down the field on both starts since. He has already tried this trip without success and was well beaten on his only previous run at Leopardstown. The Lyons yard posts an 11 percent strike rate here from a big sample while Keane is the retained rider.
Mr BallynontyKTB Fit 41/100
Mr Ballynonty is a fair performer who has shown a mix of promise and disappointment in three starts, finishing a fair third on debut before two lesser efforts. Drops back in trip to a distance he has not tried before while wearing headgear for the first time. Trainer Andrew Slattery has a 7% strike rate from 203 runs at Leopardstown. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
KTB verdict
Apercu is the KTB Selection. He has been running to a similar useful level this year without winning and looks well placed dropping back in trip after a solid second last time out, with the first-time headgear an interesting addition that could help him put his best foot forward. The main dangers are headed by Kilcrea Rock, who has a strong course record of two seconds from three runs at Leopardstown and arrives in good order, along with Manton Bay, who brings consistent placed form, and Dark Viper, who has won twice at the track and is in reasonable heart. The race looks tight on the KTB Fit figures, with the effectiveness of the headgear and how the tentative pace unfolds likely to decide matters.
KTB Selection Apercu
This is the narrative read of the 7:18 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start in headgear?
Several horses are wearing first-time headgear: Apercu, Kilcrea Rock, Dark Viper, Wild Sapphire and Mr Ballynonty.
Which runners have previous winning form at Leopardstown?
Dark Viper has won twice at the track from five runs.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Leopardstown among the principals?
Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 13% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1047 runs.
Which horse is the only confirmed front-runner in the field?
Mr Ballynonty tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the field have course form at Leopardstown?
Six of the nine runners have run at the track before: Kilcrea Rock, Eastern Peace, Glyndwr, Wild Sapphire, Harmani and Dark Viper.
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