7:18 Lingfield
A small but competitive Class 4 handicap over 1m6f at Lingfield features four runners, with the KTB numbers highlighting a fair level of ability across the principals. Taritino tops the Fit ratings on 65, ahead of Russian Rumour on 60 and Scarlet Moon on 57, while Tabasko brings up the rear on 47 as he steps up in class. All four are unproven on the surface, adding an element of uncertainty to proceedings on ground that none have encountered before.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Tabasko is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to dictate from the outset given his tendency to make the running. The other three principals – Taritino, Russian Rumour and Scarlet Moon – are all held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late, raising the key question of whether the leader can get away or if the closers will be able to bridge the gap in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Taritino KTB Selection65/100Taritino is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after two wins and a solid fourth last time.
- 2Russian Rumour60/100Russian Rumour is a fair handicapper who has won twice at this track from five runs and also has two wins at today's trip.
- 3Scarlet Moon57/100Scarlet Moon is a fair performer who has won twice over today's trip from six attempts and brings solid recent form including a 4th at this level last season.
- 4Tabasko47/100Modest performer who has shown steady progress this year, finishing second in both starts since returning from a break.
The contenders
Taritino KTB Fit 65/100
Taritino is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after two wins and a solid fourth last time. He steps up to 1m6f having already won at the trip from seven attempts, though this is his first run at Lingfield and he remains unproven on the surface. The trainer has a 50% strike rate at Lingfield from a small sample of four runs with an A/E of 3.59, while the jockey has a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.05 from eight rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Taritino will be looking to come from off the pace in what looks likely to be a steadily-run affair. The combination of recent form and trainer's record at the venue makes him the one to beat.
Russian Rumour KTB Fit 60/100
Russian Rumour is a fair handicapper who has won twice at this track from five runs and also has two wins at today's trip. He drops back from 2m having shown respectable form this year but now tries headgear for the first time on ground he has never raced on. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate at Lingfield from 192 runs with an A/E of 0.74 adds a note of caution, although the jockey has a strong 29% strike rate at the track from seven rides with an A/E of 1.54. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find a way to close on an uncontested leader. Course form gives him a solid claim but the first-time headgear and unknown ground introduce an element of risk.
Scarlet Moon KTB Fit 57/100
Scarlet Moon is a fair performer who has won twice over today's trip from six attempts and brings solid recent form including a fourth at this level last season. He makes his first visit to Lingfield from stall 2 and is unproven on the ground, while first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 17% strike rate at Lingfield from 99 runs with an A/E of 0.95, though the jockey's record reads 8% from 25 rides with an A/E of 0.43. Usually held up with medium confidence in that assessment, Scarlet Moon will be another looking to come from off the pace. His ability at the trip is a plus but the lack of course experience and unknown surface temper expectations.
The rest of the field
TabaskoKTB Fit 47/100
Tabasko is a modest performer who has shown steady progress this year, finishing second in both starts since returning from a break. He steps up in class and drops back from 2m to a trip he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Lingfield from 60 runs with an A/E of 0.83, and the jockey boasts a 35% strike rate at the track from 17 rides with an A/E of 1.6. Tending to make the running, he is set to enjoy the uncontested lead according to the pace shape.
KTB verdict
Taritino is the KTB Selection and looks to hold the strongest claims on his recent form and proven ability at the trip. He has won twice this year already and shaped well when fourth last time, with the trainer's excellent small-sample record at Lingfield adding further encouragement. The main dangers are likely to come from Russian Rumour, who boasts solid course form and two wins at the distance, and Scarlet Moon, who has won twice over 1m6f and brings fair recent form. Tabasko could prove hard to peg back if allowed an easy lead, though his lack of experience at the trip and step up in class make him vulnerable.
KTB Selection Taritino
This is the narrative read of the 7:18 Lingfield. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Lingfield racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven at the 1m6f trip?
Taritino has won at the trip from seven attempts, Russian Rumour has two wins at the trip, and Scarlet Moon has won twice over today's trip from six attempts. Tabasko has never tried the distance.
Who is likely to make the running?
Tabasko tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the only front-runner according to the pace shape, which points to a lone leader with an uncontested lead.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Russian Rumour and Scarlet Moon are both fitted with first-time headgear.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Lingfield for Taritino's connections?
The trainer has a 50% strike rate at Lingfield with an A/E of 3.59 from four runs.
How many course wins does Russian Rumour have at Lingfield?
Russian Rumour has won here twice from five runs.
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