7:20 Kempton (AW)
This Class 3 novice stakes division at Kempton over 1m2f219y on standard to slow ground brings together a field of twelve, most of whom arrive with limited racecourse experience. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the two market principals both rated at 54, underlining how open the race appears on paper. With the pace shape indicating no obvious leader, the contest is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy could prove advantageous.
How the race shapes up
Given the lack of an obvious front-runner the race is likely to unfold at a steady gallop, with those able to race handily or prominently holding an edge in a tactical event. Centrum is the one horse noted as usually racing prominently, while several others including the selection are expected to track the pace from mid-division or better. The key question will be which of these lightly raced types can show the requisite improvement for the step up in trip on their first or second starts, with the wide draw for the selection adding an extra layer of interest.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Fortitudine KTB Selection54/100Fortitudine is a first-time starter from the powerful Appleby yard, which has a strong 32% strike-rate at this track.
- 2Dialstone54/100Lightly raced with just a single run to go on and that came in a modest race.
- 3Purple Moon53/100Purple Moon has shown ability with a win on her second start after a modest debut but remains very lightly raced with just two runs in the last year.
- 4Barachiel52/100Barachiel has only four career runs in the last year and remains lightly raced overall.
- 5Centrum52/100Lightly raced with just two runs and recent form of 89, Centrum remains hard to weigh up on such limited evidence.
- 6Westender49/100Westender showed little on debut over 7f and now steps up markedly in trip to 1m3f, which asks a fresh question.
- 7Treble Bass48/100Treble Bass has only a single run to his name so far and that was a modest sixth on debut.
- 8Be Hopeful46/100Be Hopeful has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh then last.
- 9Mid Flight44/100Mid Flight showed little in two runs as a juvenile, finishing fifth then eighth, and remains lightly raced with only a small sample to go on.
- 10Arklan44/100Arklan showed only modest form when fifth on debut over 1m3½f.
- 11Digger One43/100Digger One has shown little in two starts this year after a long absence and remains lightly raced overall.
- 12Anchor42/100Anchor showed very little on his sole start over 2m and now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried.
The contenders
Fortitudine KTB Fit 54/100
Fortitudine represents the powerful Appleby yard, which boasts a 32% strike rate at Kempton from 577 runs, and is ridden by James Doyle who himself has a 17% record at the track from 1368 rides. A first-time starter by Dubawi, his assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background as he has no racecourse form to go on. The trainer and jockey combination will be popular despite the wide draw in stall 11. Overall the KTB Fit of 54 marks him out as one of the two top-rated in the field.
Dialstone KTB Fit 54/100
Dialstone has just a single run behind him, which came in a modest race, and now steps up in trip in a higher grade. The move in distance asks a fresh question of this lightly raced sort, with the going also unproven as he has had no runs on standard to slow. Trainer Ralph Beckett posts an 18% strike rate at Kempton from 1115 runs while jockey Rossa Ryan operates at 14% from 851 rides here. Rated at 54 on KTB Fit he is clearly respected on the back of that debut effort.
Purple Moon KTB Fit 53/100
Purple Moon showed ability when winning on her second start after a modest debut and remains very lightly raced with just two runs in the last year. The step up to 1m3f today poses a fresh question while the small sample makes it impossible to judge her effectiveness on standard to slow going or her true level of ability. Trainer George Baker has an 11% strike rate from 657 runs at Kempton and jockey Benoit de la Sayette records 13% from 181 rides here. She earns a KTB Fit of 53.
Barachiel KTB Fit 52/100
Barachiel has only four career runs in the last year and remains lightly raced overall. Dropping back from 2m1f to an untried 1m3f poses a fresh question for this hold-up performer, with the ground also unproven on standard to slow. Trainer Robert Stephens holds a solid 12% strike rate at Kempton from 99 runs while jockey Luke Morris sits on a 9% record from over 3,000 rides here. His KTB Fit stands at 52 as he drops in class.
Centrum KTB Fit 52/100
Centrum is lightly raced with just two runs and recent form of 89, making him hard to weigh up on such limited evidence. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while first-time headgear is now added as he races prominently. The yard hold a solid 21% strike rate at Kempton from 360 runs and Colin Keane boasts a strong 41% record here from his 17 rides. He is rated 52 on KTB Fit.
The rest of the field
WestenderKTB Fit 49/100
Westender showed little on debut over 7f and now steps up markedly in trip to 1m3f, which asks a fresh question. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 192 runs at Kempton AW while Silvestre De Sousa posts a 17% strike rate from 846 rides here. With just one run on the clock data confidence remains low.
Treble BassKTB Fit 48/100
Treble Bass has only a single run to his name so far and that was a modest sixth on debut. The step up to 1m3f is an unknown that asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Varian has a solid 21% strike-rate at Kempton while jockey Dawson sits on 9%.
Be HopefulKTB Fit 46/100
Be Hopeful has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh then last. The step up from a mile to 1m3f is a fresh question and the small sample means the going remains unknown. Trainer and jockey both operate at a modest 8% strike rate at Kempton.
Mid FlightKTB Fit 44/100
Mid Flight showed little in two runs as a juvenile, finishing fifth then eighth, and remains lightly raced with only a small sample to go on. The yard has an 8% strike-rate at Kempton from 38 runs while Havlin is operating at 11% from 1624 rides here. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up markedly in trip.
ArklanKTB Fit 44/100
Arklan showed only modest form when fifth on debut over 1m3½f. He now drops back in trip to 1m3f where he has already been beaten once, and the small sample makes it hard to gauge his true level. Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has a 10% strike rate at Kempton from 820 runs while jockey Callum Hutchinson sits on 5% from 142 rides here.
Digger OneKTB Fit 43/100
Digger One has shown little in two starts this year after a long absence and remains lightly raced overall. The drop back in trip is an unknown and the wide draw is no help on this track. Trainer Burke has a solid 18% strike-rate at Kempton but Gordon's 8% record from a large sample is modest.
AnchorKTB Fit 42/100
Anchor showed very little on his sole start over 2m and now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 24 runs at Kempton while Gina Mangan has a modest 6% strike rate from 98 rides here. With only one run on the clock and low data confidence this remains very much an unknown quantity.
KTB verdict
Fortitudine is the KTB Selection. A first-time starter from the Appleby yard with its strong 32% strike rate at this track, he is ridden by James Doyle and the combination will be popular despite the wide draw. His assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background given the lack of racecourse form. The main dangers are likely to come from Dialstone, who showed promise on debut before stepping up in trip and class, and Purple Moon who has already shown winning ability in her limited starts.
KTB Selection Fortitudine
This is the narrative read of the 7:20 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the race expected to be tactical?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, meaning no one obviously wants the lead and it is likely to be a steadily-run affair where being handy pays.
How many runners are unproven on standard to slow going?
All twelve runners have had no runs on standard to slow, leaving the surface unproven for the entire field.
Which horse is the only one noted as usually racing prominently?
Centrum is the only horse with a prominent run-style, usually racing handily on or close to the lead.
Which two horses share the joint-highest KTB Fit Score?
Fortitudine and Dialstone both have a KTB Fit of 54/100.
What is the trainer strike rate at Kempton for the yard of the selection?
Charlie Appleby has a 32% strike rate at Kempton (AW) with an A/E of 0.97 from 577 runs.
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