7:20 Windsor
A competitive Class 4 Fitzdares Sprint Series Handicap at Windsor over 6f12y on good to firm ground features an eight-runner field where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. Lequinto heads the ratings on 61 with Buccabay a close second on 60, while An Outlaw's Grace and Amazonian Dream complete the principals. The pace shape is unclear with low confidence owing to limited run-style evidence, making it difficult to forecast how the race will unfold.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated unclear and low confidence across the field, it is hard to be definitive about how the sprint will be run. Several runners have shown flexibility in their run-styles in the past, though Amazonian Dream is usually held up and produces its effort late. The key question is whether the race develops into a test of speed from the front or if the closers can land a blow in a race where track knowledge at Windsor could prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Lequinto KTB Selection61/100Lequinto is a fair 9-year-old who has won six times at Windsor from 15 starts and knows his way around this track.
- 2Buccabay60/100Buccabay is a fair performer who has won here once from four starts and also has four wins from 28 runs at this trip.
- 3An Outlaw's Grace57/100An Outlaw's Grace is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second, third and fifth from three runs here.
- 4Amazonian Dream52/100Modest performer with a solid course record here, having won three of 25 starts at Windsor.
- 5Em Four48/100Em Four is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip from 22 starts and arrives in reasonable form after a string of placed efforts earlier in the ye…
- 6Visually47/100Visually showed fair form when winning on debut last year before finishing second in a stronger race.
- 7Independent Expert46/100Independent Expert is a fair handicapper who has been running consistently without winning lately.
- 8Dontspoilasale37/100Modest performer with a lengthy career and recent form that has been ordinary at best.
The contenders
Lequinto KTB Fit 61/100
Lequinto is a fair 9-year-old who has won six times at Windsor from 15 starts and knows his way around this track. He has won five times on good to firm from nine runs and has also scored at today's trip. Recent form of 231331 shows he remains competitive at this level though his overall strike-rate is modest. Stepping up in class, he is ridden by Marco Ghiani who has a 15% strike rate at Windsor with an A/E of 1.32 from 154 rides, while trainer Tony Carroll has an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.84 from 641 runs. Drawn in stall 1, his course record makes him a major player.
Buccabay KTB Fit 60/100
Buccabay is a fair performer who has won here once from four starts and also has four wins from 28 runs at this trip. He has struck twice on good to firm from nine attempts and arrives in decent form after a recent second and third. The yard posts an 11 percent strike rate from 444 runs at Windsor. Edward Greatrex takes the ride and boasts a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.45 from 114 rides, while the trainer-jockey combination shows 22 wins from 200 rides with an A/E of 0.82. Drawn widest in stall 8, his course win and recent placed efforts keep him firmly in the mix.
An Outlaw's Grace KTB Fit 57/100
An Outlaw's Grace is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second, third and fifth from three runs here. He has won on good to firm and at today's trip, though his recent form of 762035 suggests he needs to find a bit more to win this. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard's solid 15% strike rate at Windsor from a large sample offers some encouragement. Sean Levey is in the saddle with a 13% strike rate at the venue and an A/E of 0.94 from 445 rides. From draw 4, his placed efforts at Windsor suggest he can be involved if the new headgear sparks improvement.
Amazonian Dream KTB Fit 52/100
Amazonian Dream is a modest performer with a solid course record here, having won three of 25 starts at Windsor. Consistent enough of late with placed efforts on his last two outings and has the right trip and ground, plus Oisin Murphy takes the ride. First-time headgear is the big unknown on a horse who has run 50 times in the last year. The trainer-jockey partnership has delivered 55 wins from 313 rides with an A/E of 1.00 and positive LSP of +£28.02. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the 7-year-old will look to come from off the pace in what is an unclear pace scenario.
The rest of the field
Em FourKTB Fit 48/100
Em Four is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip from 22 starts and arrives in reasonable form after a string of placed efforts earlier in the year. He has been below his best on his last three outings and showed little on his only previous run at Windsor. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey is 0-9 at the track.
VisuallyKTB Fit 47/100
Visually showed fair form when winning on debut last year before finishing second in a stronger race. He failed to build on that when only sixth on his return at this track last month though he is entitled to come on for the run. The trip looks on the short side and this is no easier.
Independent ExpertKTB Fit 46/100
Independent Expert is a fair handicapper who has been running consistently without winning lately. He has no previous experience at Windsor and has failed to place in two runs on good to firm ground. The trip looks on the short side for him too.
DontspoilasaleKTB Fit 37/100
Dontspoilasale is a modest performer with a lengthy career and recent form that has been ordinary at best. Steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before though his record on good to firm is limited to a single unplaced run. First time at Windsor for both horse and trainer who has a 0% strike rate from nine runs here.
KTB verdict
Lequinto is the KTB Selection and looks to hold strong claims given his excellent record at Windsor where he has won six times from 15 starts. A fair 9-year-old who handles good to firm ground and the trip, his recent form of 231331 confirms he remains competitive at this level. The main dangers are likely to come from Buccabay, who has a course win to his name and arrives in decent nick, and An Outlaw's Grace who has shown consistent placed form at the track with the first-time headgear now applied. Amazonian Dream cannot be ruled out either with his course record and the booking of Oisin Murphy.
KTB Selection Lequinto
This is the narrative read of the 7:20 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Windsor?
Lequinto has won six times at Windsor from 15 starts.
What is the significance of the first-time headgear for An Outlaw's Grace and Amazonian Dream?
First-time headgear is applied to both An Outlaw's Grace and Amazonian Dream, with the latter having run 50 times in the last year making it a big unknown.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence owing to not enough run-style evidence across the field, and Amazonian Dream is usually held up.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at Windsor in this field?
Richard Hannon has a 15% strike rate at Windsor from 792 runs, Clive Cox has 14% from 619 runs, and Tony Carroll has 8% from 641 runs.
Which horses have scored on good to firm ground?
Lequinto has five wins from nine on good to firm, Buccabay has two wins from nine, An Outlaw's Grace has won on good to firm, and Amazonian Dream has three wins from 21.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies