7:22 Catterick
A Class 6 handicap over 5f at Catterick on good ground brings together eight three-year-olds and one two-year-old, most of them modest performers with little margin for error. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Saxon Grace on 58, with three others between 52 and 53, suggesting a race where small margins and how the strong pace unfolds will decide matters. Recent form is mixed, with several runners showing consistency without winning while others are dropping in class in search of a revival.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the field the pace shape is predicted to be strong and potentially testing, with the likelihood of it collapsing late. Havin A Flyer and Sparkling Wine are both inclined to go forward, while Powernap and Brain Freeze like to race prominently, setting up a scenario where those held up towards the rear could be favoured if the leaders go too hard. The key question is whether any horse can produce a finishing effort strong enough to capitalise on the anticipated late fade.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Saxon Grace KTB Selection58/100Saxon Grace is a modest performer who has shown little since her placed effort on debut and arrives here with a recent string of ordinary efforts.
- 2Havin A Flyer53/100Modest performer who has been largely consistent without winning in 17 starts.
- 3Powernap53/100Powernap is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with two seconds from his last three starts and holds a career-high RPR of 69.
- 4Gwen Tennyson52/100Modest performer who showed some improvement when third in a Catterick novice over this trip 12 days ago behind a subsequent 72-rated winner.
- 5Sparkling Wine44/100Modest performer who has shown little in three runs to date and now drops back to 5f for her handicap debut.
- 6Enjoy The Night44/100Enjoy The Night has shown modest form in four runs at this trip without getting competitive and ran to a similar level when last seen in a Thirsk handicap.
- 7Brain Freeze41/100Modest performer who won a weak 5f handicap here in May off a 3lb lower mark and has run to a similar level since.
- 8Tanaka36/100Tanaka is a limited performer who has shown very little in five runs at this trip.
The contenders
Saxon Grace KTB Fit 58/100
Saxon Grace is a modest performer who has shown little since her placed effort on debut and arrives here with a recent string of ordinary efforts. She drops back to an untried 5f for the first time today while making her first visit to Catterick. The trainer holds a solid 17% strike rate at the track though the jockey’s record here is more average. Usually held up, she produces her effort late and that could be an advantage if the strong pace materialises as expected. Her official figures of RPR 64 and TS 56 reflect a limited level, yet she is the KTB Selection in a race where the principals are closely matched.
Havin A Flyer KTB Fit 53/100
Havin A Flyer is a modest performer who has been largely consistent without winning in 17 starts. He has form at this trip and showed some spark on good ground last season though has looked limited on both runs this year. First-time headgear is now fitted while the trainer has a solid record here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be prominent early in what is expected to be a strong pace. His figures read RPR 65 and TS 74, the latter the best in the field, and he has placed once from three runs on good going.
Powernap KTB Fit 53/100
Powernap is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with two seconds from his last three starts and holds a career-high RPR of 69. He has placed once from three runs at Catterick without winning and is proven at this trip though without a victory, while the drop back from 5½f asks a fresh question. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate from 30 runs here is a negative but the jockey's solid 20% record from 85 rides offers some compensation. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he will be right up with the strong pace and his recent placings suggest he remains a threat at this level.
Gwen Tennyson KTB Fit 52/100
Gwen Tennyson is a modest performer who showed some improvement when third in a Catterick novice over this trip 12 days ago behind a subsequent 72-rated winner. She has a bit to find on her two prior efforts at this distance and the small sample makes the switch to handicaps an open question. Dropping in class, she is unproven on good ground having had no previous runs on it. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she could benefit if the front-runners go hard, and her course placing adds some local knowledge. The trainer’s 10% strike-rate here from 31 runs and the jockey’s 14% from 301 rides are both respectable.
The rest of the field
Sparkling WineKTB Fit 44/100
Sparkling Wine is a modest performer who has shown little in three runs to date and now drops back to 5f for her handicap debut. The yard records a 10% strike rate at Catterick from a big sample while Sean Kirrane has an 18% strike rate here from 111 rides. Improvement is needed even at this level.
Enjoy The NightKTB Fit 44/100
Enjoy The Night has shown modest form in four runs at this trip without getting competitive and ran to a similar level when last seen in a Thirsk handicap. He returns from a break having been gelded and switched yards. The Quinns have a solid 14% strike-rate at Catterick from 51 runs while Swift is operating at 9% from 163 rides here.
Brain FreezeKTB Fit 41/100
Brain Freeze is a modest performer who won a weak 5f handicap here in May off a 3lb lower mark and has run to a similar level since. Drawn in stall 1 which should help but he has shown little on good ground in three tries and the yard’s modest strike-rate at Catterick offers no encouragement. Jockey is also without a winner from 27 rides here.
TanakaKTB Fit 36/100
Tanaka is a limited performer who has shown very little in five runs at this trip. She was well beaten on her only Catterick start and recent form figures of 5640-7 offer no encouragement. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey operates at a modest 6%.
KTB verdict
Saxon Grace is the KTB Selection and shapes as the one to beat despite her modest level and lack of recent sparkle. Her held-up style looks ideally suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold, and the trainer’s healthy record at Catterick provides encouragement even if this is her first visit to the track. The main dangers are Havin A Flyer, who brings the best TS figure and first-time headgear, and Powernap, whose recent consistency and course placings make him a solid threat from a prominent position. Gwen Tennyson cannot be entirely dismissed after her recent Catterick third, though she has more to prove on handicap debut and on good ground.
KTB Selection Saxon Grace
This is the narrative read of the 7:22 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first attempt at 5f in this race?
Saxon Grace is dropping back to an untried 5f for the first time today.
How many times has Powernap been placed at Catterick?
Powernap has placed once from three runs at Catterick.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Havin A Flyer is fitted with first-time headgear.
Has any horse in the field won at Catterick over this trip?
Brain Freeze won a weak 5f handicap here in May.
Which two runners are most likely to set a strong pace?
Havin A Flyer and Sparkling Wine both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
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