7:22 Down Royal
The 7:22 at Down Royal is a 22-runner Tayto Group Limited Handicap Hurdle over 3m on good to firm ground. A competitive field of mostly useful performers lines up, with the KTB Fit ratings tightly bunched at the top and several horses stepping up in trip while carrying unproven tags on this surface. The overall numbers point to a race where experience at the track, proven stamina at the distance and any course-and-distance history could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Bayonetta is the only confirmed front-runner and is likely to bowl along in isolation, while the remainder of the field, almost entirely held-up types, will be asked to produce their efforts from off the pace. Fire Coral is the sole prominent runner who may track the leader at a respectful distance. The key question is whether the clear leader can dictate matters throughout or if any closer can bridge the gap on this stiff stamina test.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Grace Faraday KTB Selection64/100Grace Faraday is a useful performer with solid recent form including a win and a fourth this season.
- 2Charlie's Dilemma62/100Useful performer who has placed at this trip and finished a respectable third when tried here over 3m.
- 3Schiehallion62/100Schiehallion is a useful performer with solid placed form at this track, including two runner-up finishes, and he has shown he can be competitive on good to fir…
- 4Georgia Celena60/100Useful performer who has placed twice at this track without winning and has shown she can be competitive on good to firm ground.
- 5Sneddy Eddie55/100Useful performer who showed his best this season when winning at Listowel last time.
- 6Bayonetta55/100Bayonetta is a useful performer who has been consistent this year with three seconds and a third from her last five starts.
- 7Journey So Far54/100Useful performer who has shown his best form over shorter trips and now steps up to 3m for the first time.
- 8Knocknagoran Lady54/100Useful mare who has shown steady improvement this year and arrives in decent form after a fourth last time.
- 9Jonny Carrol54/100Jonny Carrol is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history.
- 10My Policy52/100My Policy is a fair performer on his day but arrives in patchy form having pulled up on his last two starts.
- 11Fire Coral50/100Fire Coral is a fair performer who has already won over this trip and on good to firm ground.
- 12Astley49/100Useful performer who has shown some ability around this track with a third and a fifth from three runs.
- 13Midleton Rare48/100Midleton Rare is a useful performer on his day but has been well below that level in two starts this year.
- 14Clever Court48/100Clever Court is a fair performer on his best days but has been out of form for most of this year with two pulled-ups in his last three starts.
- 15Le Grand Vert46/100Le Grand Vert is a fair 10-year-old who has shown mixed form this year with a win and a second but also pulled up and finished sixth in his last two starts.
- 16Brandt46/100Brandt is a useful performer on his best days but has been out of form for some time and finished only sixth on his latest start.
- 17Sekifi44/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time and was pulled up on his most recent start.
- 18Matter Of Opinion44/100Useful performer who has shown bits and pieces in recent starts without landing a blow.
- 19Gypsy Poet43/100Gypsy Poet is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history.
- 20Technology39/100Technology is a fair performer who has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 21Moonshine Girl39/100Moonshine Girl is a fair mare who has been competitive at this level lately with two seconds and a fourth from her last four starts.
- 22Whatyouwant34/100Fair performer who has been struggling for form lately with a string of modest efforts.
The contenders
Grace Faraday KTB Fit 64/100
Grace Faraday is a useful performer with solid recent form that includes a win and a fourth this season. She steps up to 3m for the first time in a while having won at the trip before, though she has never raced on good to firm ground. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate here while the jockey has a strong 25% record from 20 rides at Down Royal. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need the race to fall right given the uncontested lead up front. Her recent form figures read 1456-U and she carries no headgear or other flags. As the KTB Selection she holds the strongest overall profile in a race where late closers will face a stiff task.
Charlie's Dilemma KTB Fit 62/100
Charlie's Dilemma is a useful performer who has placed at this trip and finished a respectable third when tried here over 3m. He has been consistent enough in recent starts without looking like winning, though the trainer's modest record at Down Royal tempers expectations. Jockey has a solid strike rate at the track but the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be giving the leader a significant start in a race with an uncontested pace. His recent form reads 8-845U and he has been placed once from one run at the course.
Schiehallion KTB Fit 62/100
Schiehallion is a useful performer with solid placed form at this track, including two runner-up finishes, and he has shown he can be competitive on good to firm ground. He steps up to 3m today having been placed at the trip before without winning, which asks a fresh question after his recent efforts over shorter. The trainer holds a 12% strike rate here from 170 runs while the jockey is 6% from 64 rides. Usually held up, he will need to bridge the gap to the clear leader. His recent form reads P2-P5P and he has been placed twice from three runs at Down Royal.
Georgia Celena KTB Fit 60/100
Georgia Celena is a useful performer who has placed twice at this track without winning and has shown she can be competitive on good to firm ground. She steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance before. Trainer's modest 7% strike rate here is offset by the jockey's very strong 60% record from his small sample of rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she faces the same task as the other closers against an uncontested leader. Her recent form reads 0-3U25 and she has been placed once from five runs at the course.
Sneddy Eddie KTB Fit 55/100
Sneddy Eddie is a useful performer who showed his best this season when winning at Listowel last time. He has twice run poorly here over shorter trips and now steps up to an untested 3m on ground he has never tackled. Trainer and jockey both hold strong records at the track, with Gordon Elliott at 21% and Jack Kennedy at 31%. Usually held up, he will be coming from well off the pace in a race shaped by a lone leader. His recent form reads -05541 and he has failed to place from two runs at Down Royal.
The rest of the field
BayonettaKTB Fit 55/100
Bayonetta is a useful performer who has been consistent this year with three seconds and a third from her last five starts. She steps up to 3m for the first time since placing twice at the distance without winning and tries good to firm ground on which she is completely unproven. First-time headgear is now applied at a track where she has shown mixed form and both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates. As the only front-runner she is set to secure an uncontested lead.
Journey So FarKTB Fit 54/100
Journey So Far is a useful performer who has shown his best form over shorter trips and now steps up to 3m for the first time. He has never run on good to firm ground so that side remains unproven. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Down Royal without setting the track alight. Usually held up, he arrives with recent form of 78-619.
Knocknagoran LadyKTB Fit 54/100
Knocknagoran Lady is a useful mare who has shown steady improvement this year and arrives in decent form after a fourth last time. She has placed over this trip and at this track, though she failed to complete on her other run here. First-time headgear is now fitted while she remains unproven on good to firm ground. Usually held up, her recent form reads 3-6114.
Jonny CarrolKTB Fit 54/100
Jonny Carrol is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He steps up to an untested 3m today which asks a fresh question of his stamina, while the lightly-raced profile means his effectiveness on good to firm ground remains unknown. The trainer has failed to strike from seven runs at Down Royal. Usually held up, his recent form reads 3P-784.
My PolicyKTB Fit 52/100
My Policy is a fair performer on his day but arrives in patchy form having pulled up on his last two starts. He steps up markedly in trip today to an untested 3m while making his first visit to Down Royal, so this represents something of an unknown. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate here from 38 runs. Usually held up with recent form P82/PP.
Fire CoralKTB Fit 50/100
Fire Coral is a fair performer who has already won over this trip and on good to firm ground. He showed useful course form when scoring here on his only previous visit to Down Royal and arrives in reasonable heart after two placed efforts this season. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at the track while the jockey has had too few rides here for any meaningful read. Usually races prominently with recent form 15-P38.
AstleyKTB Fit 49/100
Astley is a useful performer who has shown some ability around this track with a third and a fifth from three runs. He steps up markedly in trip today while trying good to firm ground for the first time, both of which are unknowns. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard's modest 6% strike rate here offers no particular encouragement. Usually held up with recent form 7535-5.
Midleton RareKTB Fit 48/100
Midleton Rare is a useful performer on his day but has been well below that level in two starts this year. He has won over today's trip in the past yet steps back up in distance from his most recent 2m4f run while carrying a 7lb claimer. Course form is modest and he remains unproven on good to firm ground. Usually held up with recent form 41P-90.
Clever CourtKTB Fit 48/100
Clever Court is a fair performer on his best days but has been out of form for most of this year with two pulled-ups in his last three starts. He is unproven on good to firm and has never won over this trip in three attempts. The trainer’s modest 7% strike rate at Down Royal is offset by the jockey’s strong 23% record here from a small sample. Usually held up with recent form -PP179.
Le Grand VertKTB Fit 46/100
Le Grand Vert is a fair 10-year-old who has shown mixed form this year with a win and a second but also pulled up and finished sixth in his last two starts. He has placed once from four runs at Down Royal yet remains winless here, while trainer Noel C Kelly has a modest 3% strike rate from 178 runs at the track. He steps up to 3m today having won twice at the trip in the past, though he is unproven on good to firm ground. Usually held up with recent form -412P6.
BrandtKTB Fit 46/100
Brandt is a useful performer on his best days but has been out of form for some time and finished only sixth on his latest start. He has no experience of good to firm ground and drops back from 3m2f to a trip where he has been beaten all three starts. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Down Royal adds to the negatives while the jockey has an ordinary 8% record here. Usually held up with recent form 0667-6.
SekifiKTB Fit 44/100
Sekifi is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and was pulled up on his most recent start. He has shown little at this track and steps up in trip today having achieved nothing at 3m previously. The trainer holds a solid record here but the jockey is still seeking his first course winner and the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground. Usually held up with recent form 86-05P.
Matter Of OpinionKTB Fit 44/100
Matter Of Opinion is a useful performer who has shown bits and pieces in recent starts without landing a blow. He is unproven on good to firm and has failed to place in two previous attempts at this trip. The trainer's modest record at Down Royal adds another question mark. Usually held up with recent form 579-75.
Gypsy PoetKTB Fit 43/100
Gypsy Poet is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He showed little at this track on his only previous visit and was well held on his most recent start after a break. The trainer holds a solid 9% strike-rate here from a big sample while the jockey has no recorded rides at Down Royal. Usually held up with recent form 6876-0.
TechnologyKTB Fit 39/100
Technology is a fair performer who has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He drops back to a trip he has placed at in the past though he has never won over it and the switch to good to firm ground is an unknown. The trainer has a modest record at Down Royal while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. Usually held up with recent form 290-F0.
Moonshine GirlKTB Fit 39/100
Moonshine Girl is a fair mare who has been competitive at this level lately with two seconds and a fourth from her last four starts. She steps up to 3m for the first time today having placed twice over the distance without winning, though she remains unproven on good to firm ground. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 18 runs at Down Royal while this is the jockey's first ride at the track. Usually held up with recent form 8-7224.
WhatyouwantKTB Fit 34/100
Whatyouwant is a fair performer who has been struggling for form lately with a string of modest efforts. He steps up markedly in trip today having shown little at shorter distances including two previous tries at this range. Course and going records are both limited by small samples and the yard and jockey also bring modest figures here. Usually held up with recent form P-7590.
KTB verdict
Grace Faraday is the KTB Selection and shapes as the one to beat on the strength of her solid recent form, prior success at the trip and the positive jockey record at the track. She will need to produce her effort late having been held up, but the KTB numbers rate her the top contender in a race where the pace is set to be uncontested up front. The main dangers are Charlie's Dilemma, who has placed over course and distance, and Schiehallion, who boasts strong placed form at Down Royal and has shown he handles good to firm. Georgia Celena and Sneddy Eddie round out the principals and cannot be ruled out if the race sets up for closers.
KTB Selection Grace Faraday
This is the narrative read of the 7:22 Down Royal. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Down Royal racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is set to make the uncontested lead?
Bayonetta is the only confirmed front-runner and is likely to secure an uncontested lead given the lone leader pace shape.
How many principals have previous placed form at Down Royal?
Three of the top five principals have placed form at the track: Charlie's Dilemma, Schiehallion and Georgia Celena.
Which horse has the strongest jockey record at Down Royal among the principals?
Georgia Celena's jockey has a 60% strike rate at Down Royal from five rides.
Who is the only horse in the field with a win at this course and distance combination?
Fire Coral has already won over this trip and on good to firm ground, and scored here on his only previous visit to Down Royal.
How many of the top five principals are unproven on good to firm ground?
Three of the top five principals are unproven on good to firm: Grace Faraday, Charlie's Dilemma and Sneddy Eddie.
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