7:25 Tramore
The 7:25 at Tramore is a competitive Brennan's Pharmacy Handicap over 2m on good ground, with a field of nine runners where the KTB numbers point to a race that could be shaped by an uncontested lead. The principals are headed by Filey Bay, who tops the Fit rankings on 63, ahead of Spasiba (58), Clear Quartz (56) and Dream On Baby (54), while the rest of the field sits between 53 and 38. Several runners are trying first-time headgear and the trip looks likely to play a key part given the mix of recent distances and course records at Tramore.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting Dream On Baby can take up the running from his favourable draw and face little pressure in front. Most of the field, including the top three in the KTB Fit order, are held-up types who will be produced late, which sets up a test of whether the uncontested lead can be reeled in by the closers. The key question is whether the leader can dictate terms and make the race hard for those coming from off the pace on this good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Filey Bay KTB Selection63/100Filey Bay is a fair performer who won on his only previous visit to Tramore and has scored twice from seven starts on good ground.
- 2Spasiba58/100Fair performer who has won over this trip in the past and is dropping back in distance after his last run over two and a half miles.
- 3Clear Quartz56/100Fair performer who has shown a bit of ability on his day but has been out of form for most of this year.
- 4Dream On Baby54/100Fair performer who has won over this trip and on this ground.
- 5Delta53/100Useful performer who has shown some consistency this year with a string of respectable efforts including a placed finish on good ground.
- 6Plontier50/100Plontier is a fair 10-year-old who showed he retains some ability when second over 2m1f here last time.
- 7Zoffman50/100Fair performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts.
- 8Miss Gitana50/100Miss Gitana is a modest performer who has won both starts at this trip and showed a bit more when third at Down Royal last time.
- 9Way Down South38/100Modest performer who has failed to win in 21 starts and arrives in ordinary form.
The contenders
Filey Bay KTB Fit 63/100
Filey Bay is a fair performer who won on his only previous visit to Tramore and has scored twice from seven starts on good ground. He drops back to a trip where he has won twice from twelve attempts, though his recent form of 0106-0 is patchy and he now tries headgear for the first time. The Emmet Mullins yard has a solid 23% strike rate here while Simon Torrens is operating at a 6% strike rate from 111 rides at the track. As a held-up type he will be produced late, which fits the shape of a race with an uncontested leader. The 10-year-old carries a KTB Fit of 63 and is the selection.
Spasiba KTB Fit 58/100
Spasiba is a fair performer who has won over this trip in the past and is dropping back in distance after his last run over two and a half miles. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground without winning and holds solid course connections through his trainer. Data is high confidence yet the recent form figures suggest he needs to improve on his last few efforts. Usually held up, he will be among those trying to close on the likely leader from off the pace. The W P Mullins yard posts a 30% strike rate at Tramore and the seven-year-old is rated second in the KTB Fit on 58.
Clear Quartz KTB Fit 56/100
Clear Quartz is a fair performer who has shown a bit of ability on his day but has been out of form for most of this year. He drops back to an untried 2m trip today after a string of longer runs, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Mark Fahey has a solid 12% strike rate at Tramore from 49 runs while the jockey has no recorded rides here. As another held-up runner he will need the leader to come back to him. The nine-year-old arrives with a KTB Fit of 56 and recent form of 38-280.
Dream On Baby KTB Fit 54/100
Dream On Baby is a fair performer who has won over this trip and on this ground. He has a solid record at Tramore including a course win from three starts and arrives in decent form with three seconds from his last five outings. First-time headgear is now added while the trainer holds a strong 23% strike rate at the track. As the only front-runner in the field he is set to take up the running and dictate from an advantageous draw. The six-year-old carries a KTB Fit of 54 and his recent form reads 222-31.
The rest of the field
DeltaKTB Fit 53/100
Delta is a useful performer who has shown some consistency this year with a string of respectable efforts including a placed finish on good ground. He steps up in trip today while wearing headgear for the first time and that combination asks a fresh question, with both trainer and jockey holding modest records at Tramore.
PlontierKTB Fit 50/100
Plontier is a fair 10-year-old who showed he retains some ability when second over 2m1f here last time. He has placed on good ground and now tries first-time headgear while dropping back to 2m, a trip he has failed to win at in two previous attempts. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Tramore is a negative.
ZoffmanKTB Fit 50/100
Zoffman is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip to a distance he has won at before while first-time headgear is also tried. Trainer Noel Meade has a solid 20% strike rate at Tramore though the jockey is operating below that level with an 11% record here.
Miss GitanaKTB Fit 50/100
Miss Gitana is a modest performer who has won both starts at this trip and showed a bit more when third at Down Royal last time. She has already won here from her only previous run at Tramore and acts on good ground. First-time headgear is now added while stepping back up in trip.
Way Down SouthKTB Fit 38/100
Way Down South is a modest performer who has failed to win in 21 starts and arrives in ordinary form. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground but steps up in trip today having achieved little at this distance in four previous attempts. The trainer is 0-6 at Tramore while the jockey has an 11% strike rate here from nine rides.
KTB verdict
Filey Bay looks the pick on his course record and proven ability at the trip and on the ground, even with patchy recent form. The first-time headgear may help him produce his effort late from a held-up position against the likely uncontested leader. Spasiba is the most obvious danger given his trainer's excellent record at Tramore and proven stamina, while Dream On Baby has the pace to dominate up front and Clear Quartz could improve for the drop in distance.
KTB Selection Filey Bay
This is the narrative read of the 7:25 Tramore. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Tramore racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Dream On Baby, as the only front-runner in a lone-leader pace shape.
How many of the field are wearing first-time headgear?
Six runners: Filey Bay, Dream On Baby, Delta, Plontier, Zoffman and Miss Gitana.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Tramore in this race?
Joseph Anthony Murray with a 50% strike rate from two runs.
Who has won at Tramore over this trip before?
Filey Bay and Miss Gitana have both won at the course, with Filey Bay successful on his only previous visit.
What is the KTB Fit score of the selection?
Filey Bay is rated 63/100.
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