7:32 Newmarket (July)
A competitive Class 4 handicap over 7f at Newmarket July on good to firm ground brings together nine runners, several of whom have shown placed form or wins at the track. The KTB Fit ratings identify Physique as the clear top pick on 73, followed closely by Jumby on 70, with Dion Baker and Nikovo completing the principals. Overall the numbers point to a race where course experience, proven ability at the trip and conditions, and yard form at the venue will carry significant weight.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with only medium confidence, as there is limited evidence of a confirmed front-runner in the field. Physique and Dion Baker both tend to race on the pace or make the running, which could see them contest the lead early, while the likes of Jumby, Miletus and several others are held-up types who will look to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the early gallop will be strong enough to suit those racing prominently or if it will play into the hands of the closers in what could develop into a steadily-run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Physique KTB Selection73/100Physique is a fair performer with a solid recent record that includes a win and a second in his last three starts.
- 2Jumby70/100Jumby is a fair performer who has been placed four times from seven runs at this track without winning.
- 3Dion Baker62/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of 113113 and five wins from 12 starts on good to firm ground.
- 4Nikovo60/100Fair performer who has been consistent of late and ran well when third over this course and trip on his only visit here.
- 5Where's Freddy59/100Where's Freddy is a fair performer who has won four times at this track from just six runs and also has two wins from five starts on good to firm.
- 6Miletus58/100Miletus is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just two visits.
- 7Exposure54/100Fair performer who has shown some ability but lacks a win after five starts.
- 8Cherry Cobbler47/100Cherry Cobbler is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, winning once from six attempts, and has run well on good to firm ground.
- 9Renesmee45/100Renesmee is a fair mare who has shown consistent placed form at this track, including a second, though she remains winless in four runs here.
The contenders
Physique KTB Fit 73/100
Physique arrives as a fair performer boasting a solid recent record that features a win and a second among his last three starts. He has already won over this trip and at this track from just three visits, while his placed efforts on good to firm ground confirm he handles the conditions. The trainer holds a strong 20% strike rate at Newmarket July with an A/E of 2.25 from five runs, and the jockey also has a respectable record at the venue. Dropping in class looks a positive, and with his front-running style he is likely to set or help force the pace from draw 3. Overall this looks a particularly suitable assignment.
Jumby KTB Fit 70/100
Jumby is a fair performer who has been placed four times from seven runs at this track without winning. He has won four times at this trip overall and also has three wins from twenty runs on good to firm ground, though his recent form is mixed with an eighth last time out. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Newmarket July. The jockey has shown a 33% strike rate from three rides at the venue. Usually held up, he will be looking to produce his effort late from draw 8 in what could suit his run style if the pace is genuine.
Dion Baker KTB Fit 62/100
Dion Baker is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 113113 and five wins from twelve starts on good to firm ground. He has won at this trip and the yard has a 15% strike rate at the track from 107 runs while the jockey is operating at a 29% strike rate from just seven rides here. First-time headgear is now added on his first run at Newmarket July. As a front-runner he is likely to be prominent early from draw 6, which could prove advantageous if the pace shape remains tentative.
Nikovo KTB Fit 60/100
Nikovo is a fair performer who has been consistent of late and ran well when third over this course and trip on his only visit here. He has won on good to firm and holds a solid record at today's distance. The trainer has a strong 25% strike rate at the track while the jockey's 8% record is more modest. Dropping in class is another plus from draw 9. He should be thereabouts if his course form is replicated, though he will need to prove himself against some in-form rivals.
The rest of the field
Where's FreddyKTB Fit 59/100
Where's Freddy is a fair performer who has won four times at this track from just six runs and also has two wins from five starts on good to firm. He has won at this trip and arrives in decent form having scored last time out. First-time headgear is now added.
MiletusKTB Fit 58/100
Miletus is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just two visits. He has shown mixed results on good to firm ground with no win or place from four runs, and the first-time headgear is now added after a recent patchy run of form. The trainer has only two runs at the course while the jockey is still seeking a first win from nine rides here.
ExposureKTB Fit 54/100
Exposure is a fair performer who has shown some ability but lacks a win after five starts. Has twice run respectably here without threatening to win, while the latest two efforts were moderate. Trip looks a fresh question having failed to make an impact in one previous attempt at 7f.
Cherry CobblerKTB Fit 47/100
Cherry Cobbler is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, winning once from six attempts, and has run well on good to firm ground. He has course experience here at Newmarket July, finishing second on his only start, while the yard posts a 10% strike rate from 472 runs at the track. First-time headgear is now applied to a horse whose recent form has been a mix of modest and competitive efforts.
RenesmeeKTB Fit 45/100
Renesmee is a fair mare who has shown consistent placed form at this track, including a second, though she remains winless in four runs here. She drops back to 7f having been placed twice at the trip without success, while her record on good to firm is modest with just one win from ten starts. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard has a solid 14% strike rate at the course.
KTB verdict
Physique stands out as the KTB Selection. He brings a solid recent record featuring a win and a second in his last three starts, has already won over this course and distance, and handles good to firm ground. The trainer's strong record at Newmarket July adds further appeal to a horse who is likely to be prominent throughout. His main dangers are Jumby, who has been placed multiple times here and now tries first-time headgear, and the in-form Where's Freddy, who boasts an excellent strike rate at the track. Dion Baker and Nikovo are others who can feature if the race develops to suit their styles.
KTB Selection Physique
This is the narrative read of the 7:32 Newmarket (July). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newmarket (July) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent record at Newmarket July?
Physique has won here from three visits while Jumby has been placed four times from seven runs at the track.
How many horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Five horses are wearing first-time headgear: Jumby, Dion Baker, Where's Freddy, Miletus and Cherry Cobbler, plus Renesmee.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Newmarket July in this field?
James Keane has a 50% strike rate at Newmarket July from two runs, followed by Michael Herrington on 25%.
Who are the two horses with front-running styles in this race?
Physique and Dion Baker both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse has won the most times at this track?
Where's Freddy has won four times at this track from six runs.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Help and support: BeGambleAware.org and the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies