7:45 Ffos Las
The 7:45 at Ffos Las is a Class 6 handicap over a mile on good ground, featuring an eight-runner field where the KTB numbers point to a fairly modest standard overall. Pay Attention tops the Fit ratings on 69 and is the clear selection, while the three other principals sit on identical 52 ratings and the remaining quartet range from 47 down to 40. Dropping in class is a theme for several runners, and with limited exposed ability across the board this looks an opportunity for the selection to build on his recent placed effort.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even gallop with no obvious front-runner dominating. Pay Attention from draw 2 and Devious Devan from draw 3 are likely to track the early pace, while Quick Turn and Alice's Influence can be handy enough. The key question is whether the race will be decided by those settling just off the speed or if any of the hold-up performers can close effectively on good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Pay Attention KTB Selection69/100Pay Attention has been running to a modest level this year with a solid second at this trip on his latest start.
- 2U S S Constitution52/100Limited on the balance of his form and has failed to win in 15 starts at this trip.
- 3Devious Devan52/100Devious Devan is a limited performer who has shown some spark at this level, winning once at today's trip from 12 attempts.
- 4Quick Turn52/100Modest performer who has shown enough to be competitive at this level.
- 5Fifty Sent47/100Limited on overall ability but has won over this trip and at this track from just two visits.
- 6Rosemary's Rose45/100Limited performer who has won twice at this trip but has looked out of form for some time and finished only fifth of six when tried here previously.
- 7Alice's Influence42/100Limited horse who has shown some spark since handicapping, finishing placed on her last two starts including a third over this trip last time.
- 8Bobby Dassler40/100Bobby Dassler is a limited handicapper who has been placed three times from four runs at Ffos Las without winning.
The contenders
Pay Attention KTB Fit 69/100
Pay Attention has been running to a modest level this year yet produced a solid second at this trip on his latest start. He holds winning form on good ground and at a mile, though this will be his first visit to Ffos Las. The trainer boasts a strong 33% strike rate at the track from a small sample of six runs with an A/E of 2.61, which adds notable appeal, while the 7 lb claimer Oliver Carmichael is unproven here but takes the ride. Recent form figures of 438-92 underline consistency at this level, and the drop in class looks well timed. With a KTB Fit rating of 69 he stands out clearly in a modest field.
U S S Constitution KTB Fit 52/100
U S S Constitution is limited on the balance of his form and has failed to win in 15 starts at this trip. He has shown the odd flash of ability but his recent efforts have been poor, culminating in figures of 0-1356. Now fitted with first-time headgear in a bid to spark improvement, he drops in class. The yard maintains a solid 18% strike rate at Ffos Las from 76 runs with an A/E of 1.03, though the jockey's course record is unavailable. His record of one win from 13 starts on good ground is modest, and with a KTB Fit score of 52 he looks up against it.
Devious Devan KTB Fit 52/100
Devious Devan is a limited performer who has shown some spark at this level, winning once at today's trip from 12 attempts. He has been placed without winning in three runs at Ffos Las, recording figures of 7th, 2nd and 8th, and is three from four placed on good ground so the track and conditions look suitable enough. The Muir & Grassick yard has a solid 20% strike rate here from 56 runs with an A/E of 1.17, while the 5 lb claimer Jack Dace has only three rides at the track which is too few to judge. Recent form of 7-8017 includes that win, and with a KTB Fit rating of 52 he is one of the main players.
Quick Turn KTB Fit 52/100
Quick Turn is a modest performer who has shown enough to be competitive at this level. He has won over today's trip and been placed once from two starts on good ground so the conditions look suitable enough. Ian Williams has a solid 18% strike rate at Ffos Las from 62 runs with an A/E of 1.13, though this is the horse's first run at the track and the 7 lb claimer Harry Vigors has no previous course experience. Recent form figures of 464172 include that mile success, and dropping in class could help. His KTB Fit score of 52 keeps him in the mix among the principals.
The rest of the field
Fifty SentKTB Fit 47/100
Fifty Sent is limited on overall ability but has won over this trip and at this track from just two visits. Recent form is patchy with figures of -11945, and he has failed to place in eight runs on good ground. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate here from 14 runs with an A/E of 1.52, though the jockey's small sample prevents any firm read, and his KTB Fit rating is 47.
Rosemary's RoseKTB Fit 45/100
Rosemary's Rose is a limited performer who has won twice at this trip but has looked out of form for some time and finished only fifth of six when tried here previously. She steps back up to a mile having been well held over 7f last time, with recent figures of 129562. Millman has a solid 16% strike rate at the track from 218 runs with an A/E of 1.03 while Keenan is less prolific here with a 6% strike rate, and her KTB Fit score is 45.
Alice's InfluenceKTB Fit 42/100
Alice's Influence is a limited horse who has shown some spark since handicapping, finishing placed on her last two starts including a third over this trip last time. She has a win at this distance on her record from five attempts though her overall level suggests she will need to improve to win a race of this type. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at the track though the yard's A/E figure is a touch below 1.00 at 0.85, and her KTB Fit rating is 42.
Bobby DasslerKTB Fit 40/100
Bobby Dassler is a limited handicapper who has been placed three times from four runs at Ffos Las without winning. He showed his best recent effort when winning a similar race at this trip last time with form figures of 723481 and acts on good ground. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate here from 19 runs with an A/E of 0.58 is a negative while the 7yo has no jockey assistance from the 5lb claimer who has never ridden at the track, and his KTB Fit score is 40.
KTB verdict
Pay Attention stands out at the top of the KTB Fit ratings and is taken as the selection. He has been running to a modest level yet produced a solid second at this trip last time, holds winning form on good ground and at a mile, and benefits from the trainer's strong record at Ffos Las. The drop in class further strengthens his case in a field where ability is generally limited. The main dangers are Devious Devan, who has shown spark at this level and suits the track and ground, and Quick Turn, who has won over the trip and is competitive at this level.
KTB Selection Pay Attention
This is the narrative read of the 7:45 Ffos Las. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ffos Las racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Ffos Las?
Pay Attention's trainer Faye Bramley has a 33% strike rate at Ffos Las from six runs with an A/E of 2.61.
Has Devious Devan been placed at this course before?
Yes, Devious Devan has been placed without winning in three runs at Ffos Las.
Which runner is trying first-time headgear?
U S S Constitution is trying first-time headgear.
How many wins has Fifty Sent recorded at Ffos Las?
Fifty Sent has won here from two visits to Ffos Las.
What is Bobby Dassler's recent best effort?
Bobby Dassler showed his best recent effort when winning a similar race at this trip last time.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies