7:45 Nottingham
This Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip of 5f at Nottingham on good to firm ground brings together a compact field of seven fair performers. The KTB Fit Scores range from 65 down to 45, highlighting a race where class-droppers, first-time headgear and recent consistency will all play their part. Mesaafi tops the KTB rankings and is the selection, while the overall numbers suggest a competitive sprint in which the strong pace anticipated could create late opportunities.
How the race shapes up
With two confirmed front-runners in Grandlad and Goyard, allied to the pace shape indicating a strong gallop is likely, the early fractions should be brisk. Several hold-up performers, including the selection Mesaafi, Michaela's Boy and Moulin Booj, are poised to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the leaders will pay for their exertions late on, allowing the closers to capitalise as the race potentially collapses in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mesaafi KTB Selection65/100Fair performer who has dropped in the weights and now tries first-time headgear.
- 2Michaela's Boy56/100Michaela's Boy is a fair performer who has won seven times at this trip but looks vulnerable on recent form that includes a modest sixth here on his only previo…
- 3Grandlad55/100Fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just one visit.
- 4Moulin Booj51/100Fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing in the first three on four of his last six starts.
- 5Forager47/100Fair performer who has won four times at this trip and handles good to firm ground well with three wins from seven starts.
- 6Goyard46/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form without winning lately.
- 7Jax Edge45/100Fair performer who has won four times over this trip from 16 attempts and handles good to firm ground well with two wins and seven places from 17 starts.
The contenders
Mesaafi KTB Fit 65/100
Mesaafi is a fair performer who has dropped in the weights and now tries first-time headgear. He drops back to his winning trip of 5f having last run over 6f, with a solid record on good to firm that includes one win and four places from ten starts. The trainer maintains a 20% strike rate at Nottingham from a small sample, while the jockey has a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.42 from 93 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the expected strong pace. The combination of a class drop, return to optimum distance and new headgear gives him plenty in his favour.
Michaela's Boy KTB Fit 56/100
Michaela's Boy is a fair performer who has won seven times at this trip but looks vulnerable on recent form that includes a modest sixth here on his only previous visit to Nottingham. He has shown his best on good to firm ground with one win and three places from ten starts, though the first-time headgear is an unknown. The yard posts a solid 10% strike rate at the track from a big sample, with the jockey recording a 15% strike rate at Nottingham and an A/E of 1.03 from 65 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace likely to unfold. While his course record is modest, the trip and ground are in his favour.
Grandlad KTB Fit 55/100
Grandlad is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just one visit. He has shown mixed form this year but arrives in decent order and the first-time headgear could sharpen him up. The trainer records a 10% strike rate here from 20 runs while the jockey has a 26% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.72 from 19 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is sure to be prominent early in a race where the pace looks strong. His course win adds an important positive in what could be a demanding test up front.
Moulin Booj KTB Fit 51/100
Moulin Booj is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing in the first three on four of his last six starts. He has won six times at this trip and handles good to firm ground well with three wins and eight places from 12 runs. Only one run at Nottingham so far but he placed on that visit and the trainer has a solid 15% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.08 from 59 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the strong pace. The jockey partnership with Tom Marquand adds further interest despite the modest trainer-jockey A/E.
The rest of the field
ForagerKTB Fit 47/100
Forager is a fair performer who has won four times at this trip and handles good to firm ground well with three wins from seven starts. Recent form is patchy and the first run at Nottingham adds an unknown element. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from ten runs here while the jockey records a 9% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.84 from 269 rides. Usually held up, he drops in class but faces questions over both venue and current form.
GoyardKTB Fit 46/100
Goyard is a fair performer who has shown consistent form without winning lately. He drops back to 5f having won at the trip before, though his most recent efforts came over 6f. The trainer has a modest 10% strike rate at Nottingham from a big sample while the jockey is making his first appearance at the track. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be involved early in what is expected to be a strong gallop.
Jax EdgeKTB Fit 45/100
Jax Edge is a fair performer who has won four times over this trip from 16 attempts and handles good to firm ground well with two wins and seven places from 17 starts. He drops back from 6f today which looks a sensible move given his record at the shorter distance. The trainer remains without a winner from 16 runs at Nottingham while the jockey has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.17 from 26 rides. Usually held up, his recent form has been mixed.
KTB verdict
Mesaafi is the KTB Selection. A fair performer who has dropped in the weights, he returns to his winning 5f trip with the benefit of first-time headgear and a trainer who strikes at a 20% rate at Nottingham from a small sample. His record on good to firm includes one win and four places from ten starts, and his hold-up style is perfectly suited to the strong pace that should unfold. The main dangers are likely to come from Moulin Booj, whose consistent recent form and placed effort on his only Nottingham run make him a solid threat, and Grandlad, who won here over the trip on his sole visit and can make the running. Michaela's Boy cannot be entirely dismissed either if the first-time headgear helps him bounce back.
KTB Selection Mesaafi
This is the narrative read of the 7:45 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Nottingham?
Grandlad won here over this trip from his only previous visit, while Moulin Booj has placed on his sole run at the track.
How does the expected strong pace shape influence the hold-up horses?
The pace shape indicates a strong gallop that could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses such as Mesaafi, Michaela's Boy, Moulin Booj, Forager and Jax Edge.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Nottingham for the selection Mesaafi?
The trainer Ross Burdon has a 20% strike rate at Nottingham from a small sample with an A/E of 1.54 from five runs.
Which runners are trying first-time headgear in this race?
Mesaafi, Michaela's Boy and Grandlad are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse is dropping back to 5f having recently raced over 6f?
Both Mesaafi and Goyard are dropping back to 5f having last run over 6f, while Jax Edge also drops back from 6f.
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