7:45 Stratford
This Class 5 National Hunt Flat race at Stratford over 2m0f70y on good to firm ground brings together a field of nine lightly raced or debutant runners in a Category 1 Elimination contest for conditional and amateur jockeys. With the KTB Fit Scores tightly bunched between 51 and 40, the race lacks a standout contender on paper and the overall standard looks modest. The KTB numbers underline how little established form there is to work with, placing the emphasis on trainer record at the venue, pedigree hints and how each horse might improve from minimal racecourse exposure.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style evidence across the field to form a reliable picture. On The Fly is the only horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, though that assessment itself carries limited evidence. Most of the others have either no declared preference or, in the case of Pearl Cove, are usually held up. The key question is whether an uncontested lead materialises for On The Fly or whether the race develops into a more even, steadily run affair that could suit those delivered from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Roccana Rose KTB Selection51/100Roccana Rose has only a single run behind her and that was a modest fourth on debut, so there is very little to go on.
- 2On The Fly47/100On The Fly showed little on his sole start when finishing ninth.
- 3Bombus Pascuorum46/100Donald McCain's newcomers often need time but he has a solid 16% strike rate at Stratford from a big sample.
- 4Pearl Cove46/100Pearl Cove has shown little in two starts so far, finishing 9th and then 10th.
- 5Goliath Power45/100Goliath Power is a debutant with no racecourse experience.
- 6Stand Proud42/100Stand Proud showed little on his only start to date when finishing eighth.
- 7Guerdale40/100Guerdale has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions.
- 8Company Charge40/100Company Charge has only one run to his name so the form is hard to weigh up with any confidence.
- 9Talladale40/100Talladale showed only modest promise when fifth on debut and remains lightly raced with just the one run to go on.
The contenders
Roccana Rose KTB Fit 51/100
Roccana Rose has only a single run behind her, finishing a modest fourth on debut. There is therefore very little to go on as she drops back from 2m1f to 2m, a move that poses a fresh question, while the good-to-firm ground also remains unknown given such a small sample. Trainer Mickey Bowen brings a solid 24% strike rate at Stratford from 21 runs, which is a positive, yet this remains a lightly-raced filly that needs to improve markedly if she is to play a leading role. The drop in class is another factor in her favour on paper, although the overall profile is still one of considerable guesswork.
On The Fly KTB Fit 47/100
On The Fly showed little on his sole start when finishing ninth of nine. The yard has no recorded runners at Stratford, so this represents new territory for them, while apprentice Rian Corcoran also has no established record at the track despite a 17% strike rate and A/E 1.46 from six rides. With only one run on his card and a trip that has already failed to spark improvement, the overall picture remains very limited. His tendency to make the running or race on the pace could at least give him a straightforward lead if the rest are content to sit off him, though the lack of solid supporting form makes that advantage hard to weigh up.
Bombus Pascuorum KTB Fit 46/100
Bombus Pascuorum is a debutant for Donald McCain, whose newcomers often need time yet who still holds a solid 16% strike rate at Stratford from a large sample of 218 runs. This 4-year-old brings limited racecourse information, so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background which offer no standout clues. Harry Brown takes the ride with his 10 lb claim, though the jockey’s 0% strike rate and A/E 0 from one previous ride at the track adds a note of caution. Overall the picture remains tentative on debut, with the by Make Believe breeding carrying an 11% win rate that is no better than average.
Pearl Cove KTB Fit 46/100
Pearl Cove has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth and then tenth. The yard holds a solid 12% strike rate at Stratford from 100 runs, which offers some encouragement, yet with only two career runs the form is too limited to read with any confidence and the trip has so far failed to bring improvement. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he could be suited if the race develops a strong enough pace to close on, though that remains speculative given the modest level of his performances to date. The good-to-firm ground is another unknown for him.
The rest of the field
Goliath PowerKTB Fit 45/100
Goliath Power is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The Fergal O'Brien yard has a solid 15% strike rate from 266 runs at Stratford, while the jockey Fern O'Brien holds an 8% strike rate and A/E 0.79 from 12 rides at the venue; pedigree offers the only other clues but with low data confidence any assessment remains tentative.
Stand ProudKTB Fit 42/100
Stand Proud showed little on his only start to date when finishing eighth. The yard has a modest 12% strike rate from 25 runs at Stratford and the jockey is 0% from seven rides at the track; with just one run on record the trip question remains open and the going is unknown.
GuerdaleKTB Fit 40/100
Guerdale has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate from 17 runs at Stratford, though the trainer-and-jockey combination is 0% from nine runs overall; trip and ground both remain unproven with such a small sample.
Company ChargeKTB Fit 40/100
Company Charge has only one run to his name so the form is hard to weigh up with any confidence. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried while wearing first-time headgear, both of which are unknowns; the yard has a solid 17% strike rate from 29 runs at Stratford yet the jockey is 0% from 15 rides at the track.
TalladaleKTB Fit 40/100
Talladale showed only modest promise when fifth on debut and remains lightly raced with just the one run to go on. The yard has a 13% strike rate at Stratford from 30 runs and the trainer-and-jockey combination is 19% from 91 runs overall; trip and ground both remain unproven questions at this stage.
KTB verdict
Roccana Rose is named the KTB Selection. She has only a modest fourth on debut to her name and must improve markedly, yet the drop in class, the trainer’s respectable record at Stratford and the general lack of depth to this field all help her cause. The main dangers are likely to come from the debutants, particularly Bombus Pascuorum who represents a yard that knows its way around Stratford, and from On The Fly if his prominent run-style allows him an easy lead. Pearl Cove and the remainder of the field bring even less convincing form or data, leaving the race looking one where the selection can capitalise on her slight experience edge.
KTB Selection Roccana Rose
This is the narrative read of the 7:45 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Roccana Rose has the highest KTB Fit Score at 51/100.
Which runner is the only one noted as a front-runner?
On The Fly is noted as tending to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Company Charge is wearing first-time headgear.
What is Donald McCain’s strike rate at Stratford?
Donald McCain has a 16% strike rate at Stratford from 218 runs.
How many previous runs has the KTB Selection had?
Roccana Rose has had one previous run.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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