7:45 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 6 classified stakes over 1m142y at Wolverhampton on standard going brings together a field of limited performers where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 55 and 37. The top five in the KTB ranking are separated by just five points, underlining how modest the overall standard is, with recent form, course experience and trainer-jockey combinations at the track likely to prove decisive. Arlecchino's Rex tops the KTB Fit at 55 and is the selection, though several others with placed efforts here cannot be dismissed.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even test with no obvious front-runner dominating, though several runners including Sorted, First Encounter and Taskheer tend to race prominently or prominently-midfield. This should allow those with a bit of toe to sit off the pace and pounce, while hold-up types may find themselves with plenty to do if the race is run at a steady gallop. The key question is whether any of the course winners can dominate from their respective draws or if the race will be decided by those coming from midfield with a strong finishing effort.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Arlecchino's Rex KTB Selection55/100Arlecchino's Rex is a limited performer who has run 28 times in the last year yet still manages to pop up with the odd win.
- 2Saturnalia54/100Saturnalia is a limited performer on the balance of his ratings and recent efforts that have produced four modest finishes from his last five starts.
- 3Sorted52/100Limited sort who has shown his best at this track with two placed efforts from five runs here including a recent second.
- 4Manton Road51/100Limited performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and holds a solid record on standard going with three wins from 13 starts.
- 5First Encounter50/100Limited performer who has won once from two starts at Wolverhampton.
- 6Taskheer49/100Limited performer who has been placed on his last three starts but was well held when ninth last time.
- 7Smoker Bellamy49/100Smoker Bellamy has shown modest ability in seven runs and sits in the limited category for this company.
- 8Gloriola47/100Gloriola is a limited performer who has shown little in six runs to date and was beaten 11 lengths into fifth on her latest start here.
- 9Rogue Soldier46/100Limited performer who has won once in seven runs here but has been well below form on his last two starts.
- 10Thomas Tallis43/100Limited performer who showed little in three runs last year and was well held on his return here over this trip last month.
- 11Vecchio42/100Vecchio is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and has failed to win or place in eight runs at this track.
- 12Rockafeller Skank37/100Limited horse who has won his last two starts over longer trips on turf.
The contenders
Arlecchino's Rex KTB Fit 55/100
Arlecchino's Rex is a limited performer who has run 28 times in the last year yet still manages to pop up with the odd win. He has shown his best round here with two course victories from 15 runs and is proven at this trip having been placed twice in four attempts. The yard's modest 8% strike-rate at Wolverhampton is a concern but Daniel Muscutt's 14% record at the track offers some hope. Recent form of 133237 shows consistent efforts in this grade and he is proven on standard going with two wins from 18 starts. Drawn in stall 9, his ability to race prominently or from midfield should suit the expected pace shape. Overall he rates the one to beat on KTB's assessment.
Saturnalia KTB Fit 54/100
Saturnalia is a limited performer on the balance of his ratings and recent efforts that have produced four modest finishes from his last five starts. He has won once in five runs at Wolverhampton and is proven on standard going with two wins and seven places from 17 attempts. The step back up to 1m looks a fair fit given his placed effort at the trip. Trainer J S Moore has a 9% strike rate at the track from a large sample while jockey Taylor Fisher operates at 12%. Recent form reads 880-04 and from draw 7 he should be able to find a decent position early. He remains a solid each-way contender in a modest event.
Sorted KTB Fit 52/100
Sorted is a limited sort who has shown his best at this track with two placed efforts from five runs here including a recent second. He has a fair recent record but remains winless and looks no better than modest on his best efforts. Trainer Mark Loughnane has a 10% strike rate here from a big sample while jockey Jack Mitchell fares better at 17%. Recent form of 70-423 highlights his competitiveness in this grade on standard going where he is placed twice from five starts. Drawn in stall 8, his prominent run-style should see him to the fore if the pace is not too strong. He is one of the more consistent types in the line-up.
Manton Road KTB Fit 51/100
Manton Road is a limited performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and holds a solid record on standard going with three wins from 13 starts. He steps back up to a trip he has won over before though his recent form is poor and he has been well held in his last three starts. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates here with Richard Phillips at 6% and Kieren Fox at 9%. Recent form of 6-5770 is uninspiring yet his course record cannot be ignored in a race of this nature. From draw 10 he may need to be ridden positively to overcome any early pace pressure. He retains each-way claims on his best efforts.
First Encounter KTB Fit 50/100
First Encounter is a limited performer who has won once from two starts at Wolverhampton. Recent form of 612160 shows ability to pop up but also plenty of lesser efforts and the yard's 5% strike rate from 214 runs here offers little encouragement. He steps back up to a trip where he has won once from five starts while the jockey's modest 5% record at the track adds further negatives. Darragh Keenan takes the ride from draw 6 and his prominent run-style could be an asset if the race develops steadily. Proven on standard going with two wins from 11, he is capable of a bold show but has questions to answer on current form.
The rest of the field
TaskheerKTB Fit 49/100
Taskheer is a limited performer who has been placed on his last three starts but was well held when ninth last time. He has shown some ability on this track with a third here but steps up in trip today having been largely campaigned over shorter. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Wolverhampton.
Smoker BellamyKTB Fit 49/100
Smoker Bellamy has shown modest ability in seven runs and sits in the limited category for this company. He ran creditably when second here over 7f on his most recent start though his overall form this year reads 64-207. The step up to 1m asks a fresh question while the yard and jockey both record below-average strike rates at Wolverhampton.
GloriolaKTB Fit 47/100
Gloriola is a limited performer who has shown little in six runs to date and was beaten 11 lengths into fifth on her latest start here. The yard's modest 3% strike rate from 235 runs at Wolverhampton offers no encouragement while the wide draw in stall 12 is another negative. This step back up to 1m asks a fresh question but the overall profile suggests she will struggle to be competitive.
Rogue SoldierKTB Fit 46/100
Rogue Soldier is a limited performer who has won once in seven runs here but has been well below form on his last two starts. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in five previous attempts at this distance and the trainer's poor 1% strike rate at the track is another negative. First-time headgear is tried.
Thomas TallisKTB Fit 43/100
Thomas Tallis is a limited performer who showed little in three runs last year and was well held on his return here over this trip last month. Stall one might help him see out the 1m142y but he has plenty to find on what he has shown so far. Trainer has a 10% strike-rate at Wolverhampton from 666 runs while the jockey is operating at 6% from 268 rides at the track.
VecchioKTB Fit 42/100
Vecchio is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and has failed to win or place in eight runs at this track. He steps up in trip today having been well held over shorter, though he has tried this distance four times without success. The yard's modest record here adds little encouragement.
Rockafeller SkankKTB Fit 37/100
Rockafeller Skank is a limited horse who has won his last two starts over longer trips on turf. Dropping back to an untried 1m poses a fresh question while the switch to the all-weather track adds further uncertainty. Trainer and jockey both have modest records here at Wolverhampton.
KTB verdict
Arlecchino's Rex is the KTB Selection. He has shown his best round here with two course victories from 15 runs, is proven at this trip and his recent efforts in this grade have been consistently competitive. Daniel Muscutt's 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton provides some confidence despite the yard's modest record at the track. The main dangers are Sorted, who has posted two placed efforts from five runs here including a recent second, and Saturnalia, who is proven at the trip and on the surface. Manton Road and First Encounter add further depth with their course-winning form but both come into the race with concerning recent efforts.
KTB Selection Arlecchino's Rex
This is the narrative read of the 7:45 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Wolverhampton?
Arlecchino's Rex has two wins from 15 runs here.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The pace shape is fairly even with several prominent runners likely to set a steady gallop, favouring those who can come from midfield with a finishing kick.
Which runners are proven winners over the trip?
Arlecchino's Rex is proven at the trip having been placed twice in four attempts, while Manton Road and First Encounter have both won over the distance before.
What are the trainer strike rates at Wolverhampton for the top three in the KTB Fit ranking?
Mark Usher has an 8% strike rate, J S Moore 9% and Mark Loughnane 10% at the track.
Which horses are stepping up in trip for this race?
Taskheer, Smoker Bellamy, Rogue Soldier and Vecchio are all stepping up in trip.
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