7:48 Bath
A small but competitive Class 6 handicap over 5f 160y at Bath on firm ground brings five runners together. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Connie's Rose heading the numbers on 55, followed closely by Beerwah on 49 and Nordic Glory on 48. With the pace shape rated as unclear owing to limited run-style evidence, the race looks open and the first-time headgear seen on four of the five runners adds an extra layer of uncertainty.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is simply not enough run-style data across the field to form a firm view of how the race will unfold. Candy Warhol is the one horse with a defined front-running style and can be expected to take the field along from draw 2. The key question is whether that early pace will prove genuine or whether the race will develop into more of a sprint finish, particularly with several runners wearing headgear for the first time and unproven on the firm surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Connie's Rose KTB Selection55/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts and one win from 21 runs at this track.
- 2Beerwah49/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year with a recent win over 5f at a lesser track.
- 3Nordic Glory48/100Limited performer who has won over this trip and on firm ground.
- 4Candy Warhol39/100Candy Warhol is a limited handicapper who has been running to form without winning lately.
- 5Payforanother Daay39/100Limited sort who has shown only modest form on his five runs at Bath and looks up against it again from stall 4.
The contenders
Connie's Rose KTB Fit 55/100
Connie's Rose is a modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts. She has won at today's trip and holds a course record of one win from 21 runs at Bath, where the trainer posts a 9% strike rate. The mare is dropping in class which should help, though she is 0-3 on firm ground and the jockey also has a below-average record at the track. First-time headgear is now fitted as she lines up from draw 3 off recent form figures of 327244. Trainer and jockey statistics here read 0-22 and 7% strike rate respectively.
Beerwah KTB Fit 49/100
Beerwah is another modest performer who has been in and out this year. He recorded a recent win over 5f at a lesser track and has been placed once at this distance without winning. First-time headgear is applied as he steps up in trip on firm ground on which he remains unproven. The four-year-old makes his debut at Bath from draw 5 with recent form figures of 217618. Trainer and jockey statistics show 1-10 with a small plus on LSP, though neither has a record at this venue.
Nordic Glory KTB Fit 48/100
Nordic Glory is a limited performer who has won over this trip and on firm ground, recording one win from two starts on the surface. He has course form here at Bath with one win from four runs and the trainer holds a solid 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.1. The seven-year-old lines up from the inside draw with recent form figures of 245180. The jockey is still seeking a first winner at this venue from ten rides.
The rest of the field
Candy WarholKTB Fit 39/100
Candy Warhol is a limited handicapper who has been running to form without winning lately. He has placed on both starts at Bath, is competitive on firm ground having been placed once from two runs, and the return to this trip is in his favour having won over it before. First-time headgear is now tried while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track and the jockey's 0-from-7 record here are both negatives.
Payforanother DaayKTB Fit 39/100
Payforanother Daay is a limited sort who has shown only modest form on his five runs at Bath and looks up against it again from stall 4. He has placed once at today's trip but is 0-5 on firm ground and arrives in poor recent order. First-time headgear is now applied.
KTB verdict
Connie's Rose is the KTB Selection. She arrives with the strongest recent placed form among the principals, possesses course winning form at Bath, and is dropping in class which looks a positive. The first-time headgear may help her settle and focus on firm ground where she has yet to show her best. The main dangers are Beerwah, who brings a recent win and is open to improvement in the new headgear, and Nordic Glory, who has previous winning form over the trip, on the surface and at the track.
KTB Selection Connie's Rose
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:03 UTC, 31 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Connie's Rose | 9/4 | Bet365 |
| Beerwah | 7/2 | 7Bet |
| Nordic Glory | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Candy Warhol | 13/8 | William Hill |
| Payforanother Daay | 17/2 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 7:48 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class?
Connie's Rose is dropping in class.
How many of the runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four of the five runners are wearing first-time headgear.
Which horse has course winning form at Bath?
Both Connie's Rose and Nordic Glory have won at Bath.
Who is the only horse with a defined front-running run style?
Candy Warhol tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse has won on firm ground?
Nordic Glory has one win from two starts on firm ground.
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