7:50 Galway
The 7:50 at Galway is a 15-runner Grá Chocolates Handicap over 1m4f84y on good to yielding ground. It features a host of unexposed three-year-olds with recent handicap form, several of whom are stepping up markedly in trip while others arrive in solid nick having already shown their hand at this distance. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, underlining a competitive renewal where trainer and jockey course records, ground preferences and the unknowns around stamina will all come into play.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with low confidence, suggesting there is no clear-cut front-runner on established evidence. Admiral Will Brown is the only horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, though that trait is based on limited evidence. Most of the principals, including Themis and Confused, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to be decided from off the pace with the key question being whether the gallop is sufficient to allow the closers to be effective over this extended trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Themis KTB Selection56/100Themis is a fair 3-year-old who has improved sharply with two wins at today's trip from just two attempts.
- 2Madbadanddangerous55/100Fair performer who has shown useful placed form at this trip range and arrives in decent nick after a solid second last time.
- 3Confused54/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form in three starts, winning at this trip range on her second outing before a lesser effort last time.
- 4Darius Dark51/100Fair sort who has improved sharply this season and is three from three at this trip.
- 5Sir Benji51/100Sir Benji is a fair 3-year-old with placed form at a lower level and has shown enough to suggest he can be competitive again.
- 6Nermal50/100Nermal is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including a win and two seconds from his last five starts.
- 7Sharkeyboy49/100Sharkeyboy shaped with promise when fifth on debut at Leopardstown and again when runner-up at Naas, though he failed to build on that last time.
- 8Ryefield Dasher46/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in two starts this season after a modest maiden campaign.
- 9So Must I43/100So Must I is a fair 3-year-old who has been consistent rather than progressive, with four placed efforts from his last six starts but no win since his maiden su…
- 10Admiral Will Brown43/100Fair performer who showed improved form when winning a 1m2f handicap at Down Royal last time.
- 11Nod Of Approval41/100Fair performer who has shown some competitiveness on good to yielding ground and at this trip.
- 12Fits Perfect41/100Modest performer who has shown little since a promising debut and was well beaten on his only previous run here.
- 13Misty Cove41/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on her three starts this year, including a win at Down Royal in June.
- 14Vantage Code40/100Modest performer who has shown little in five starts this year and was well held when seventh on his only previous run here.
- 15Solas Na Gealai38/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing seventh on his most recent two outings.
The contenders
Themis KTB Fit 56/100
Themis is a fair three-year-old who has improved sharply with two wins at today's trip from just two attempts. He arrives in form after a clear-cut success last time and holds solid course connections through his trainer. The yard's 12% strike rate from 512 runs at Galway and the jockey's 14% from 133 rides both suggest they know the place well enough to be competitive. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well suited if the race develops with a bit of pace to aim at. His official figures of OR 78 and recent form figures of -70911 underline the progress he has made. With a KTB Fit Score of 56 he tops the ratings and is taken to follow up.
Madbadanddangerous KTB Fit 55/100
Madbadanddangerous is a fair performer who has shown useful placed form at this trip range and arrives in decent nick after a solid second last time. Stall one could prove handy round here while the yard and jockey both have solid Galway records, with Noel Meade at 14% from 508 runs and Colin Keane at 12% from 317 rides. The trip is a fresh question today having last run over further, though he was placed on his only previous start on good to yielding ground. His recent form figures of 13-271 and KTB Fit Score of 55 mark him down as a major player from the inside draw.
Confused KTB Fit 54/100
Confused is a fair performer who has shown mixed form in three starts, winning at this trip range on her second outing before a lesser effort last time. She steps up in distance for the first time today while wearing first-time headgear, which adds unknowns. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Galway with strike rates of 9% and 10% respectively. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be looking to come from off the pace. Her placed effort on good to yielding ground offers some encouragement and her KTB Fit Score of 54 keeps her firmly in the mix.
Darius Dark KTB Fit 51/100
Darius Dark is a fair sort who has improved sharply this season and is three from three at this trip. He won on this ground on his only previous try and has strong course connections through his trainer. First-time headgear is the main unknown but the yard's modest 9% strike rate at Galway from 91 runs and the jockey's 4% record from 160 rides temper expectations somewhat. His recent form figures of 9-0111 reflect the upward curve he is on and with a KTB Fit Score of 51 he cannot be dismissed. Drawn in 14 he will need luck in running from out wide.
Sir Benji KTB Fit 51/100
Sir Benji is a fair three-year-old with placed form at a lower level and has shown enough to suggest he can be competitive again. He steps up sharply in trip today from 7f, which is an unknown that could suit or expose him depending on how he settles. The yard's modest Galway record of 7% from 355 runs is offset by the jockey's solid 9% strike rate from nearly 300 rides. Unproven on good to yielding ground, he brings a KTB Fit Score of 51 and recent form figures of 135 into the equation. How he handles the new distance will be the deciding factor.
The rest of the field
NermalKTB Fit 50/100
Nermal is a fair three-year-old with solid recent form including a win and two seconds from his last five starts. He steps up in trip today having never tried beyond 1m2½f so this is a fresh question. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 180 runs at Galway while the jockey is on 5% from 83 rides.
SharkeyboyKTB Fit 49/100
Sharkeyboy shaped with promise when fifth on debut at Leopardstown and again when runner-up at Naas, though he failed to build on that last time. A fair performer who remains lightly raced, he now steps up markedly in trip with first-time headgear applied. The yard's solid Galway record offers some encouragement but the jockey's strike-rate here is more modest.
Ryefield DasherKTB Fit 46/100
Ryefield Dasher is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two starts this season after a modest maiden campaign. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Galway.
So Must IKTB Fit 43/100
So Must I is a fair three-year-old who has been consistent rather than progressive, with four placed efforts from his last six starts but no win since his maiden success. He steps up in trip today with first-time headgear and has already shown he handles this sort of ground, though his sole previous try at the new distance brought no joy. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Galway from a big sample, while the 7 lb claimer is too lightly raced here to assess.
Admiral Will BrownKTB Fit 43/100
Admiral Will Brown is a fair performer who showed improved form when winning a 1m2f handicap at Down Royal last time. He steps up in trip today having been beaten on his only previous try at this distance. Trainer has a poor 0-26 record at Galway while the jockey has a solid 7% strike-rate here from 60 rides.
Nod Of ApprovalKTB Fit 41/100
Nod Of Approval is a fair performer who has shown some competitiveness on good to yielding ground and at this trip. He has course experience but finished a remote 11th here and his overall form has been patchy since a placed effort earlier in the year. Trainer has a modest 9% strike rate at Galway while the claiming jockey is operating at just 4% here.
Fits PerfectKTB Fit 41/100
Fits Perfect is a modest performer who has shown little since a promising debut and was well beaten on his only previous run here. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Galway from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 7% from 95 rides. Stepping up markedly in trip asks a fresh question of a horse with only four career runs.
Misty CoveKTB Fit 41/100
Misty Cove is a modest performer who has shown some ability on her three starts this year, including a win at Down Royal in June. She drops back from 2m1f today to a trip she has never tried, which asks a fresh question of her. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Galway.
Vantage CodeKTB Fit 40/100
Vantage Code is a modest performer who has shown little in five starts this year and was well held when seventh on his only previous run here. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer continues in solid form at this track while the jockey’s modest strike rate here reflects the strength of opposition he usually rides.
Solas Na GealaiKTB Fit 38/100
Solas Na Gealai is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing seventh on his most recent two outings. He steps up markedly in trip today having already been well held over 1m2f, which asks a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Galway.
KTB verdict
Themis tops the KTB Fit Scores and looks to have the best blend of proven stamina at the trip, recent winning form and strong course connections through the Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard. His sharp improvement this term and clear-cut latest success suggest he can cope with the rise in the weights. Madbadanddangerous, Darius Dark and Confused are the most obvious dangers, with the first-named helped by the inside draw and the others bringing sharp recent form and headgear to the equation.
KTB Selection Themis
This is the narrative read of the 7:50 Galway. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Galway racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven at the trip with two wins already?
Themis, who has two wins at today's trip from just two attempts.
Who is the only confirmed front-runner in the field?
Admiral Will Brown, who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Confused, Darius Dark and Sharkeyboy.
How many horses in the race are stepping up markedly in trip?
Several including Sir Benji from 7f, Sharkeyboy, Ryefield Dasher, So Must I, Fits Perfect, Misty Cove, Vantage Code and Solas Na Gealai.
Which trainer has the strongest Galway strike rate among those represented?
W P Mullins with a 16% strike rate at Galway from 1132 runs.
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